Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. gVOR10 says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 08:47

   Re GOP Iran worries, I’ll repeat what I asked in the Forum a bit ago, when will the GOPs do anything about this?

   Come January, it’s likely a quiet word from about 17 GOP senators to the new Dem Speaker of the House would lead to a quick solution. That would leave us with JD whatever his name really is, but I’ve become convinced even that would be an improvement. But that’s still nine months away, and I’m genuinely concerned Trump has painted himself into a corner in Iran and will try to nuke his way out.

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2. Scott says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 08:50

   Let me add this:

   Trump doesn’t have to turn over presidential records, Justice Department says

   The Justice Department has issued a legal opinion arguing that President Donald Trump does not have to turn over his presidential records to the National Archives at the end of his administration.

   The Presidential Records Act of 1978 requires presidential documents be sent to the National Archives and Records Administration. In an opinion released Thursday, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel found the law “is unconstitutional for two independent but interlocking reasons.”

   It exceeds Congress’ powers and it does so at the expense of the autonomy of the presidency, T. Elliot Gaiser wrote in the opinion, noting that Congress can’t order the papers of Supreme Court justices to be sent to the archives.

   The president “need not further comply with its dictates.”

   It should be noted that Gaiser clerked for Alito.

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3. Mr. Prosser says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 13:39

   Tina Peters, my ex-county clerk, will be re-sentenced, probably by the same judge who gave her 9 years. The appeals court stated the judge gave her too harsh a sentence because she basically has a big fat mouth and showed no contrition. It will be interesting to see what the new sentence will be. She’s already done about a year and a half. Trump demanded she be pardoned. We’ll see what Governor Polis does about a commutation or pardon after the re-sentencing.

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4. steve222 says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 17:38

   The opening of Trump’s Box is a good read. It made me go look up some numbers. The article estimates that a toll of about $2 million per ship would next Iran about $100 billion a year, about 1/4 of their total GDP or about twice their govt budget. That made me look up how many barrels an oil tanker carries. The small ones about 100,000 and the largest about 3.5 million barrels. Since they claim to adjust based upon tonnage it looks like they will be charging $1-$2 per barrel. (20 million barrels a day/700 million a year go through the strait.) This doesnt account for LNG, fertilizer, helium and other shipping.

   I had, wrongly, assumed that Iran was charging on the order of $10-$20 barrel. If they did that then that would be the equivalent of about $1 trillion a year catapulting Iran into about the 20th wealthiest country in the world but would also highly motivate the other GCC countries to do stuff like pipelines to get around the toll. At $1 a barrel they might still build pipelines due to the uncertainty but there is little ned to rush. So it looks like Trump made Iran financially solvent again and Iran didnt go overboard in response.

   Steve

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5. JohnSF says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 19:54

   @steve222:
   Pipelines take time; railways and port facilities sufficient to ship all the other stuff (aluminium, ferilisers, etc) even longer.
   And the GCC states don’t have that time.
   A few months and their economies collapse.
   A few months more and absent the 70% of food imported via the Straits, they starve.

   That is the fundamental reality of Trump’s epic strategic f@ckup.

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6. charontwo says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 20:42

   @steve222:

   “Tooze”

   Iran has built a three-tier access system for the most important waterway on earth. Tier one: allies transit free. Malaysia cleared seven vessels through diplomacy at zero cost. India negotiated zero-fee passage. Pakistan secured clearance for 20 ships. Iraq transits without charge. These countries proved geopolitical alignment and the IRGC waved them through the Larak corridor without collecting a rial. Tier two: compliant neutrals pay. At least two tankers, likely Chinese-linked, paid up to two million dollars each in yuan through Kunlun Bank intermediaries. COSCO container ships attempted the corridor, were turned back on first approach when documentation was incomplete, then succeeded days later with revised paperwork.

   These are the vessels that prove the system works. They submit IMO numbers, ownership chains, cargo manifests, and crew lists to the IRGC’s Hormozgan Command. They receive clearance codes. They are escorted by pilot boats through the five-nautical-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. They pay in a currency that does not route through SWIFT. Every successful yuan transit is a live proof-of-concept for non-dollar energy settlement. Tier three: adversaries are denied entirely. The committee plan bans American vessels, Israeli vessels, and vessels from any country participating in sanctions against Iran. These ships do not get vetting. They do not get codes. They do not get escorts. They get the AL SALMI, burning off Dubai, as illustration of what the corridor looks like without permission. But the toll is not the real cost.

   War-risk insurance is. Premiums have surged from $40,000 per VLCC transit before the war to $600,000 to $1.2 million today, a 30-fold increase, now running five to ten percent of hull value. A VLCC carrying $50 million in crude oil can absorb a combined $3 million in toll and insurance as a fraction of cargo value. A container ship carrying $5 million in manufactured goods cannot. The insurance premium alone exceeds the profit margin on non-oil cargo. The strait has become an oil-only VIP lane. Crude flows selectively for those who can pay the combined cost. Everything else waits, reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, or does not move at all. … One hundred and eighty-one vessels transited in all of March. Pre-war traffic was 138 per day. Of those 181, roughly 70 percent were Iranian-affiliated. The remaining 30 percent were vetted allies or yuan-paying neutrals. The 20 percent of global oil that once flowed freely through this strait now flows selectively, conditionally, and in currencies chosen by Tehran.

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7. steve222 says:
   Friday, 3 April 2026 at 21:03

   @charontwo: Thx! Much more detailed. Kind of a double win for China. They get their oil without a large extra cost and get to further entrench their currency as the currency of international trade. This arrangement provides income for Iran and one assumes better relations for Iran with countries like China and India that can provide them trade goods to rebuild their industry.

   Steve

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