The 51 Percent
How that awful man won again.
While most of us here are grieving for the country in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election, it’s worth noting that slightly more than half of the country—or at least those who bothered to vote—are breathing a sigh of relief. They got their preferred candidate. Or at least their least unpreferred. As much as we fear what this portends for the future, they believe the country has been saved from those trying to undermine it.
Contrary to the prevailing sentiment, they’re overwhelmingly not monsters. Indeed, while we don’t talk about it all that much, at least directly, given the customs of American civil-military relations, I’d guess my students and military faculty colleagues voted for Trump by at least a 2-to-1 margin. And the folks I went to war and to high school with are likely closer to 5-to-1.
This morning, Steven pointed to Carlos Lozada‘s “Stop Pretending Trump Is Not Who We Are.” After a long litany of “I remember when . . .” statements, he observes,
There have been so many attempts to explain away Trump’s hold on the nation’s politics and cultural imagination, to reinterpret him as aberrant and temporary. “Normalizing” Trump became an affront to good taste, to norms, to the American experiment.
We can now let go of such illusions. Trump is very much part of who we are. Nearly 63 million Americans voted for him in 2016. Seventy-four million did in 2020. And now, once again, enough voters in enough places have cast their lot with him to return him to the White House. Trump is no fluke, and Trumpism is no fad.
After all, what is more normal than a thing that keeps happening?
In recent years, I’ve often wondered if Trump has changed America or revealed it. I decided that it was both — that he changed the country by revealing it. After Election Day 2024, I’m considering an addendum: Trump has changed us by revealing how normal, how truly American, he is.
[…]
Trump’s disinhibition spoke to and for his voters. He won because of it, not despite it. His critics have long argued that he is just conning his voters — making them feel that he’s fighting for them when he’s just in it for himself and his wealthy allies — but part of Trump’s appeal is that his supporters recognize the con, that they feel that they’re in on it.
[…]
This time, that choice came with full knowledge of who Trump is, how he behaves in office and what he’ll do to stay there. He hasn’t just shifted the political consensus on a set of policy positions, though by moving both parties on trade and immigration, he certainly has done that. The rationalization of 2016 — that Trump was a protest vote by desperate Americans trying to send a message to the establishment of both parties — is no longer operative. The grotesque rally at Madison Square Garden, that carnival of insults against everyone that the speakers do not want in their America, was not an anomaly but a summation. It was Trumpism’s closing argument, and it landed.
His NYT colleague Lisa Lerer piled on with “America Hires a Strongman.”
Donald Trump told Americans exactly what he planned to do.
He would use military force against his political opponents. He would fire thousands of career public servants. He would deport millions of immigrants in military-style roundups. He would crush the independence of the Department of Justice, use government to push public health conspiracies and abandon America’s allies abroad. He would turn the government into a tool of his own grievances, a way to punish his critics and richly reward his supporters. He would be a “dictator” — if only on Day 1.
And, when asked to give him the power to do all of that, the voters said yes.
This was a conquering of the nation not by force but with a permission slip. Now, America stands on the precipice of an authoritarian style of governance never before seen in its 248-year history.
Their colleague Peter Baker joins in with “‘Trump’s America’: Comeback Victory Signals a Different Kind of Country.”
In her closing rally on the Ellipse last week, Kamala Harris scorned Donald J. Trump as an outlier who did not represent America. “That is not who we are,” she declared.
In fact, it turns out, that may be exactly who we are. At least most of us.
The assumption that Mr. Trump represented an anomaly who would at last be consigned to the ash heap of history was washed away on Tuesday night by a red current that swept through battleground states — and swept away the understanding of America long nurtured by its ruling elite of both parties.
No longer can the political establishment write off Mr. Trump as a temporary break from the long march of progress, a fluke who somehow sneaked into the White House in a quirky, one-off Electoral College win eight years ago. With his comeback victory to reclaim the presidency, Mr. Trump has now established himself as a transformational force reshaping the United States in his own image.
[…]
Rather than be turned off by Mr. Trump’s flagrant, anger-based appeals along lines of race, gender, religion, national origin and especially transgender identity, many Americans found them bracing. Rather than be offended by his brazen lies and wild conspiracy theories, many found him authentic. Rather than dismiss him as a felon found by various courts to be a fraudster, cheater, sexual abuser and defamer, many embraced his assertion that he has been the victim of persecution.
“This election was a CAT scan on the American people, and as difficult as it is to say, as hard as it is to name, what it revealed, at least in part, is a frightening affinity for a man of borderless corruption,” said Peter H. Wehner, a former strategic adviser to President George W. Bush and vocal critic of Mr. Trump. “Donald Trump is no longer an aberration; he is normative.”
But also adds some nuance:
Populist disenchantment with the nation’s direction and resentment against elites proved to be deeper and more profound than many in both parties had recognized. Mr. Trump’s testosterone-driven campaign capitalized on resistance to electing the first woman president.
And while tens of millions of voters still cast ballots against Mr. Trump, he once again tapped into a sense among many others that the country they knew was slipping away, under siege economically, culturally and demographically.
To counter that, those voters ratified the return of a brash 78-year-old champion willing to upend convention and take radical action even if it offends sensibilities or violates old standards. Any misgivings about their chosen leader were shoved to the side.
The last decade or so has made it pretty clear to me that a larger subset of my erstwhile co-partisans, doubtless including some folks I grew up or served with, are more motivated by racism, sexism, xenophobia, and homophobic bigotry than I’d understood. It’s certainly more than a tiny fringe of Trump’s base of support. But, no, it doesn’t explain the 72 million folks (and counting)—an actual majority of voters—who voted for Trump.
Folks with columns in the Newspaper of Record ought to understand that Americans overwhelmingly don’t follow politial news, much less read the New York Times, on a regular basis. Probably a hundred times more people can tell you the fate of Peanut the Squirrel than what happened at the Madison Square Garden rally.
After nine years of being told Trump is a fascist and a threat to democracy, it’s not surprising that they’ve tuned it out now that the word is coming from inside the tent.
Rather clearly, Trump’s anti-immigrant rants appealed to a large number of people worried about the economy and the culture. But, no, I don’t think anything like a majority actually supports the measures that would be required to rounding up tens of millions of people. They just want the problem solved and believe Trump cares about it more than Harris.
I honestly can’t explain why the Capitol Riots didn’t create a permanent backlash, but it clearly didn’t. If anything, the multiple felony indictments—and the convictions in the New York case—seem to have galvanized the notion that Trump is a victim. I don’t understand it but it’s true.
By all indications, though, Trump has increased his support. He’s won a majority this time. He is, for the first time in a very long time if not ever, approved by more Americans than disapprove of him. Despite rhetoric that’s obviously racist and anti-immigrant, he’s drawn the largest share of Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican in decades.
In 2016, his shocking win was attributed to a combination of sexism, his opponent’s complacency, and a backlash among blue-collar whites. Eight years later, he’s expanded his coalition considerably.
It baffles and frustrates the hell out of me. Then again, I’m precisely the type of highly-educated professional that has left the Republican Party as it has attracted more blue-collar voters of all races who once upon a time were the base of the Democratic Party. Alas, there are a lot more of them than there are of us.
When something dreadful happens and they say “that’s not what I meant or wanted!” they will not be forgiven.
I suggested he might in a comment a few weeks back and you dismissed it. I didn’t expect it, but I thought it was quite possible.
Contrary to what some might imagine, neither were the people of Nazi Germany. It doesn’t take a population of monsters to perform monstrous deeds. Like the ‘good’ Germans, these Trump voters will carefully look away as people’s lives are ruined. They will never admit they were wrong, and they will never stand up to him, they will back him in anything he does.
Let me put this bluntly. If Trump ordered all trans people to be arrested and held in concentration camps, Trump voters would not so much as frown. And he would find plenty of men and women ready to be guards, just as he will find plenty of thugs to tear immigrant families apart.
@Michael Reynolds:
You’re a true idiot.
I don’t get it.
R’s in the early part of my lifetime were fairly decent and cool. Then Reagan happened.
The Reagan Era was when Rs leaned into all or nothing. Partial policy gains were no longer acceptable. All or nothing. No prisoners.
Then there was Newt Gingrich who essentially mandated that practice as a rule.
I have no problem with divided government. I am, sort of, an incrementally minded person to a degree. Personally, I’d prefer radical change now, but we’ve got to get friends and neighbors on board too. Fucking layabouts!
Again, I think we need to avoid making sweeping statements until we have more data (including around theorized demographic shifts).
Once we have more data, then I think we turn to this:
I agree. And I think–to the degree your existing teaching/research load allows–trying to really explore the baffle is an important thing for us to do (especially those writing on the front page). I, for one, want to see lots of defensible unpackings of what happened and why.
To steal an appropriate line from Sondheim: they’re sooooooo nice… they’re not good; they’re not bad; they’re just nice…
@Jake:
Stop posting when you’re looking in the mirror.
@de stijl: @Matt Bernius: I agree that the data are somewhat sparse but we’ve clearly seen at least a small-scale realignment of the party systems at this point. The scale of it is really all that’s in question.
Yes
https://x.com/DustieDahl/status/1854164363021541499
Frankly that you all are baffled is an indication of the closed off circle of “acceptable” listening that has developed amongst the a US Left that has become autistically closed off from all “non acceptable” opinion, hectoring and pious modern versions of Edwardians… althoughbthevdetials have shifted to BoBo Leftism.
The European example, where we are seeing similar although not identical reaction, showed rather clearly there is a wider reaction on the level of the labouring working class to combined socio economic change.
The tone deafness, the reaction, maga as nazi scum, unfrequentabke bigots… Well maybe Reynolds feels better, but the dominant mode evident here is a path to continued losses
Personally it is not hard to see the charlatans appeal although it has none for me, but being of the over educated Uni degree holder elite, that’s no surprise – however given the interaction with anyone not in the proper Uni educated Lefty professional class discourse…. the réactions to the typical piousvarchness that dominates is not difficult to understand
But I expect the majority here will attack and reject, as like reaction to Andy note about reflection
For various reasons I ended up driving a lot the days right before the election. It was notable to me here in PA that essentially all of the GOP ads were primarily focused on trans issues and also on immigrants claiming immigrants are responsible for disease, crime (especially fentanyl) and everything bad in the US.
Steve
@Michael Reynolds:
@Jake:
Honestly, what part of Michael’s statement is wrong or farfetched?
Or do you believe that Trump’s style of malevolence and cruelty is all an act, and that his rallies were just a lot of good family fun?
@Lounsbury:
For the record, I am not “Uni educated”, I’m a High School drop-out. I collected rents in a slum for a year, worked as a waiter for ten years, and cleaned homes and offices for two. I’ve been homeless, slept on the streets and spent time in jail. I was working class growing up and was quite poor, and constantly on the edge of real disaster until the age of 42. I’m now 70.
I agree we need to change our message and approach, and if that’s what I was hired to do, I’d execute that and do a fucking great job of it because I’m a professional. But I’m not working on a campaign or making policy or writing ads, I’m here, communicating with people who already know all of the above, and I am not reluctant to call a prick a prick.
Now, do we need some outreach to these scumbags, yes we do. But just between us here . . . shhhh. . . they are scumbags.
@al Ameda:
It depends on which family we’re talking about= The Borgias? The Corleones? We know for sure it is not the Von Trapps.
@Michael Reynolds:
Raising my hand and saying I am not a uni educated either but I am a high school graduate. Was trained by the Navy to be a Hospital Corpsman and Radiology technician.
Take a deep breath and hold it before labeling me next time.
It’s the internet. Prior to its invention, evolution and access to all, the ignorant were not as dangerous. Now with the help of the webs spread you see how dangerous they can become. You can downplay it, but it has played a massive part in bringing this to a boil, just needed the right demagouge to add to the stew to bring them all together and change the makeup of our political landscape.
@Michael Reynolds:
@Bill Jempty:
Same here. I took some college classes, but came nowhere near graduating. I just read a lot.
@Matt Bernius: “Again, I think we need to avoid making sweeping statements until we have more data (including around theorized demographic shifts).”
You mean like this? “The majority of American voters are either evil, stupid or both.”
Nah, I’m sticking with it until data comes along to prove me wrong. Meanwhile, my lease is up in April of 2026, and so I’ll be dividing my time between charting the barbarism here and scouting out a desirable area of The Netherlands to settle in.
I don’t have it in me to spend another four years watching the champion of the stupid and evil destroy people’s lives based on his sick whims.
@James Joyner:
Totally agree James. And I also will gently push back that scale makes a hell of a difference.
Admittedly, some people have a bias towards magnifying the scale. Others have a bias towards minimizing it.
In all honesty, I most likely fall into the latter. So, on a day like today, I’m resisting writing ANYTHING about it until there is more data, and we can also do some necessary contextualization while doing our best to control for bias.
@Michael Reynolds: And?
I don’t see anything particularly useful in such – MAGA as scum, MAGA and anyone voting Trump as unwashed vulgarians, unfrequentable by polite society etc.
The majority of the priggish Left holier-than-thou fraction with their fine secular culutural religion has spent something like almost 10 years (since 2016) in this mode. It seems neither particuarly effective either as therapy nor as understanding nor… really anything
(and apparently self-entertainment is somewhat beneath the very important and serious comments – I will grant you do self-entertainment but then do get beyond that which makes you more interesting than the pious priggery, the arch ironic-egalitarian pretence snobbery)
@Lounsbury: Do you find that people cross the street to avoid you when they see you coming?
@Lounsbury: “I will grant you do self-entertainment but then do get beyond that which makes you more interesting than the pious priggery, the arch ironic-egalitarian pretence snobbery)”
I hope Michael realizes what a compliment this is — these are the same words Lounsbury used to propose to his wife!
Trump won because roughly half of America preferred a felon, rapist, senile, autocratic, ancient, orange white man to a black woman.
Because roughly half of America doesn’t understand how tariffs work.
Because half of America wants a government that stays out of their lives, but really fucks with their neighbors.
Because half of America is the worse half.
Not sure it requires that much analysis.
Because that Black woman was a
NiNeoliberalCuCommunist.Once and future President Creamcicle, assuming that he doesn’t stroke out before then, or get lost shuffling around Mara Lago and fall into a ravine.
@wr:
Yeah. Actually exactly like that, especially when it may turn out we’re talking about a 1 to 2% difference between the “evil, stupid or both” voters and those of us who are “good, enlightened, and just all around better human beings” (note the silent /s on that second one… I’m trying not to get too invested in an ‘us vs. them’ narrative).
I know I’m coming across as a scold, and that isn’t needed while folks are processing feelings.
That’s why I’ll wait until we have more details and a bit of distance to share my hot take on why I think “this IS who we are” takes are both wrong and fundamentally unproductive.
Might I humbly suggest that you folks re-examine your base assumptions. Read more than just far left news or blog sites, and spend less time slapping each other on the back. And perhaps you can actually evaluate alternative opinions rather than just piss on people who disagree. As best I can tell you all live in the proverbial echo chamber.
Objectively, the Trump years were good. The economy did well. No new wars. A border somewhat under control. No firing squads. Imprisoning political opponents. And so on. You all beclown yourselves with these hysterical musings.
Harris is vacuous. Her policies, despite the convenient reversals, are those of a miserable Biden presidency. You need more than Trump is Hitler to win votes, except for the tribalists I guess.
The people unlocked the code. And the progs took an arse whippin’.
It will happen again unless you WTFU.
@Kathy:
I read a great deal also.
Most of which is
Espionage or thriller fiction
Biographies of politicians, diplomats, or members of the military
And very occasionally Dystopian fiction or current affairs non-fiction
@Jack:
As I have stated many times, I read both the National Review and New Republics. And as for back slapping, I’ve been accused of being a troll and told I should run for President for holding views like the polls were wrong, Trump is going to win, and that Biden is unfit to run for President.
@Jack:
Right back at you, Jack.
Some one on the Left could have written that paragraph as very descriptive of the Right.
@Matt Bernius:
It may not be who we are, but it’s who a lot of us are. Trump was pretty clear about his plans for a second term.
Sure, the election was decided on the margins by low-information voters, but easily a third of us are people who looked at Trump, saw him for what he is, and said “I want that.”
These are the people who Trump appealed to when he was appealing to our worst nature.
With 1-2% margins, you also have to factor people who are angry that Biden overturned Roe v. Wade, and voted Trump to punish him, and other amazing beliefs, but at the core it’s that a lot of Americans are terrible people who saw every warning about Trump and said “don’t threaten me with a good time!”
They is us. As much as our nation’s most noble aspirations define us, our worst impulses do as well, when they are so widely embraced.
A quarter of Seattle voted for Trump (in 2020, I haven’t looked for breakdowns like that this year, but don’t expect it to be different). These are not the best people, they’re the Nazis Next Door.
@Jack: I regularly check out right wing media. When half of America is very certain that I am wrong, I check it out, because maybe they’re right. What I’ve found is charlatans selling hate to fools. In an earlier era they would be selling snake oil and ranting about the Chinese railroad workers.
You have to want to believe their shit to believe it, or be really, really stupid. And maybe I give people too much credit, but I don’t think most of them are that stupid.
ETA an apostrophe, in honor of the late and lamented Teve. Shitty people with shitty values.
@Bill Jempty:
You may need to read some memoirs or biographies of some of the von Trapp children. Certainly not as dire as the Borgias, but a pretty classic dysfunctional family if things I’ve read over the years were accurate.
@Gustopher: President Creamsicle? Meh… More the color of a hamburger bun or Parker House roll these days. But I’ll admit that’s not as funny.
@Michael Reynolds:
I’ve been homeless too. I slept in a park. In October. I put on basically all the clothes I had and still nearly froze to death. No one’s fault beyond mine. I owed too much back rent. Got evicted.
I probably could’ve hit up friends and couch surfed, but I didn’t because of pride or deep shame. I knew I didn’t want anyone I knew to see me like that. I was deeply embarrassed and ashamed.
When it got too cold and I thought I might die, I went to the downtown shelter.
You have no address. (Pre mobile phone) You had no phone. When I had no place to go and no viable options left I took the bus downtown. Went to the Hennepin County shelter for homeless men. It truly sucked, but it was a roof and an actual toilet and a cot, two sandwiches a day. Baloney and cheese. I witnessed a fairly violent rape there. I walked away and said nothing. I got out. Many don’t.
To this day every time I turn on a light switch, or a faucet, a hot shower at home it’s a boon. It’s kinda amazing. Many don’t have that. I will never eat or buy baloney or Wonder Bread ever again.
I’m retired now, but volunteer at CISS about three days a week. When I’m bored I walk, and I live downtown, so basically I interact with homeless folks almost everyday freelance. Tell them about the shelter. I walk around with ten dollars in my pocket max. Wallet stays at home. I’m not an idiot.
I’m essentially doing unpaid outreach daily, but I have no schooling or training in that.
There are good people and bad people on the streets. Some are very bad. It’s November now, unless they can get inside somewhere soon at night they will die.
The shelter I volunteer at exists because of a homeless man found frozen to death back in the eighties. The powers that be in the city decided to fund a shelter. Mostly to centralize and control the problem.
@Jack:
It is absurdly arrogant to presume that people here only read x sources. It implies that anyone who reads what you read would come to the same conclusion.
Such a persuasive approach.
The fact that you think this blog is far-left reveals that maybe you should take your own advice. Only a person with a narrow background could mistake center-right/center-left bloggers as far-left. Or an easy mark for propagandists.
I suppose the other possibility is a person who has read widely, but is too rigid in their thought patterns.
Reading the words =/= is not the same as comprehension and fair consideration.
Regardless, the assuming that others are in an info bubble is a bad look. Nor is it effective as a tool of persuasion.
Heed my advice, your mind will be better for it. And others are more likely to give consideration to your perspective.
@Gustopher
This.
@Gustopher:
And with this comment to me, I rest my case your honor.
It doesn’t bode well for the left.
@Jack: It would truly awesome if you actually made arguments as to why everyone is wrong.
I am dead serious.
What are the positive arguments for Trump?
Or, what is it that you think everyone is missing?
I think people would honestly like it if you would make an actual case.
@Kurtz:
And with this comment to me, I rest my case your honor. I’ve never met someone on the left who didn’t think they were near the center. It exposes what they really read. Group think.
@Jack:
Except you made no case. You are just making an assertion.
Look people. You just got pasted. I really don’t care about your invective towards me. But if you want to keep getting pasted keep up the slavish adherence to your claims.
You have reasonable candidates. They might not be my cup of tea, but they are sensible. Harris was a clown.
@Jack:
This isn’t how argumentation works.
If anything, you need to define what you mean by “the left” behind “voting Democratic.”
If you think James Joyner is a leftist, you haven’t a clue about what the term means.
And while I think I am slightly more on the American left than is James, I am hardly spouting socialist dogma.
@Jack: Maybe you have forgotten 2020 when we were wiping our asses with coffee filters?
Trump is funny and people like him. Sometimes his jokes are at his own expense. And his aesthetic is stupid. It didn’t work, really, with him getting shot. But it did work with that dumb McDonald’s stunt, or when he introduces some scam product. And when his jokes are at the expense of others, it’s nostalgia, like telling a joke about gay people dying of AIDS in 1985, which 100% of Republican and 75% of Democrats found funny.
It’s like a type of moral case against using the n-word. It’s not about black people or racism or inflicting pain upon somebody. It’s a case of racist white people who don’t want to be associated with the type of whites who say the actual n-word. My guess is that Trump voters just believe that the world is exactly that. And why wouldn’t they? We teach all the time that morality is grandstanding. Why would it be different now?
@Jack:
When are we getting the stock market crash and inflation Elon promised us? And how are you going to blame it on Kamala?
@Matt Bernius: “I know I’m coming across as a scold, and that isn’t needed while folks are processing feelings.”
Yup. I appreciate everything you’re doing here, know you’re being the better man than me in doing it, admire you as always… and at this moment just don’t have any fucks to give.
I’m sure we’ll both be closer to the middle at some point in the near future, with my rage and your total self-control both easing a bit. But for now, this is where I am. Sorry…
@Jack:
Fixed that for you.
This is an election where so many people think the country is on the wrong track that with normal, boring candidates, the Democrats would have lost in a landslide. Swap in Romney or Hogan when he is sounding sane or a mediocre midwest governor of no merit, and I would expect Republicans to get 55% just for being the other party.
Harris came within spitting distance because Trump is so repugnant that it overrides the fundamentals.
But, she’s also a Black woman, and that probably cost her a few percent. Because there’s a shitload of racists and misogynists and racist misogynists, and that includes at least a few percent of otherwise persuadable white people.
(Nicki Haley instead of Trump would have been interesting, since she would have to pay the Brown Woman Tax, but the “wrong direction” polling would have almost certainly made up for it)
Given that the polls barely moved when Biden left the race and Harris took over*, I think it’s entirely possible that white man Biden could have won against Trump, since he wouldn’t have paid that Black Woman Tax. He would have at least come within spitting distance (assuming he didn’t show up looking like a corpse again because of cold medicine).
*: this was the most shocking part of the cycle, more shocking than Biden stepping aside, or someone shooting at Trump, or the recent Nazi Rally… (those last two seemed like a given)
@Tony W: That was the best coffee.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Look at the track record, Dr. His tenure was quite successful. A good economy; real wage growth across all demos. No new war engagements. The border was not fully successfully closed, but the absolute open border and all its effects were muted compared to Biden/Harris. On that last point, am I to understand you care not one whit about the death, rape, drugs, and child sex trafficking that has accompanied Biden’s policies?
Moving on.
COVID hit. And that’s what Biden et al want to focus on. I fault Trump for actually listening to Fauci and his ilk. They were covering up Fauci’s funding of the research at Wuhan. The country should have remained largely open and all the knock on issues would have been avoided. But sans COVID, Trump did just fine. No public hangings of his political opponents.
BTW – anyone familiar with even rudimentary issues in pandemic knows that you either do a total shutdown almost from day 1 to cut off spread, or the horse is out of the barn. Its too late. We were too late. We would have had to make the call perhaps as early as Nov or Dec. Not possible in the public realm. Where was Fauci? He knew exactly what was going on. He was covering his ass. He was culpable. He should be hanged. But I digress.
The Trump criticisms are absolutely hysterical and juvenile. Do you really want to look at Biden? Real wage growth destroyed for Green New Deals, er, Inflation Reduction Acts. A border that is pathetically wide open. Drugs. Sex trafficking. Most job creation has been in low wage, government or part time jobs. We pour money into Ukraine because Bidens limp unit told Putin he could move. Iran has been acting with impunity, until Israel said enough.
I could go on for quite awhile. You need to justify Biden’s tenure. But the American people just voted on that. The verdict was “I’ll take an imperfect and crass Trump vs Zeros like Biden or Harris.”
Don’t try to convince me. Talk to the American people. Because people like you just got your head handed to them.
@wr:
No need to apologize due sharing where you and and listening to where I am.
Being honest and open about how you are feeling and owning those feelings is all I will ever ask anyone for.
I think being prepared to account for what we do and how we show up is critical. And honestly it’s my biggest frustration with most of our contrarian posters (and some of our not so contrarian posters as well too).
@Jack:
EDITED: manually corrected auto-correct and one instance of poor word choice.
Excuse me? I have admitted on multiple occasions in this very space that my personal views are outside the mainstream. I have never said I was close to center.
I was speaking about the bloggers. All three of whom hold views distinct from one another. And if you want to extend it to the regular commenters, have you bothered to notice that there have been plenty of knock-down drag-out arguments between the people you seem to think are in lockstep. Those fights included personal insults, pointed questions of motives, and accusations of a variety of intellectual sins.
You’re playing a bullshit shell game. If we descend into a period of in-fighting you will point and laugh about how disorganized and bitter we all are. If we don’t, we are engaging in groupthink inside of our bubble.
Shit, dude. You know I have defended you, by name, and @JKB when I thought that others were not being fair to you. I do it with @Lounsbury all the time. I have, defended you against accusations of trollery.
My bona fides are well established. I built that credibility over the years, because I know how to defend a position. I know how to take apart other positions. I know when and how to back off and reevaluate. And most of all, I genuinely consider other perspectives.
Having said all of that, there is plenty of things to criticize me about, both intellectually and personally.* I have made mistakes of fact here. I have made mistakes of tone here. I have had to apologize multiple times to multiple people for going too far.
And yet, you chose to stand on criticism that I have demonstrated to be untrue. You have been here for years, you know all of this is true.
Dude, I may be more or less alone around here in terms of my opinions about you as well as my approach to our interactions. But you are better than this. If you do not want to reciprocate, that is fine. It says a lot more about you than it does about me. But I believe in you. And I’m well aware that the most likely outcome is that you will make me look naive–unrealistically optimistic. Maybe I am. But I will live.
*If my understanding is correct, you insulted me under a different handle. Dismissively, I might add. But that makes no difference to me.
@Matt Bernius:
Unpack?
@Jack: This is one of the most disingenuous posts I’ve ever seen. NOBODY blames Trump for Covid itself. His response is what garners the blame. His lying cost lives. Period. Just google time line Covid Trump and you see what a disaster he was. Here’s one where you can read what a lying sack of crap he was, this wasn’t some ignorant guy off the street, he was the president and he lied repeatedly because he wanted to avoid being blamed.
Jan. 20: The first confirmed coronavirus case is reported in the United States.
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” — Trump in a CNBC interview.
Jan. 30: The World Health Organization declares a public health emergency of international concern.
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.
Jan. 31: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declares a public health emergency for the U.S.
Jan. 31: HHS Secretary Alex Azar announces travel restrictions, effective Feb. 2. The policy prohibits non-U.S. citizens, other than permanent residents and the immediate family of both citizens and permanent residents, who have traveled to China within the prior two weeks from entering the U.S.
February
Trump privately tells journalist Bob Woodward that the novel coronavirus is “deadly stuff,” but continues to tell the public that it is “under control,” even suggesting that it could go away in the spring.
Feb. 7: “It goes through air, Bob. That’s always tougher than the touch … You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed. And, so that’s a very tricky one. … It’s also more deadly than your – you know, your, even your strenuous flus. … This is more deadly. This is 5, you know, this is 5% versus 1% and less than 1%. You know, so, this is deadly stuff.” — Trump in an interview with Woodward, released in September.
Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House. (See our item “Will the New Coronavirus ‘Go Away’ in April?“)
Feb. 14: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the virus. So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” — Trump in speaking to National Border Patrol Council members.
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” — Trump in a tweet.
Feb. 26: “So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.”
“I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.” — when asked if “U.S. schools should be preparing for a coronavirus spreading.”
“I want you to understand something that shocked me when I saw it that — and I spoke with Dr. [Anthony] Fauci on this, and I was really amazed, and I think most people are amazed to hear it: The flu, in our country, kills from 25,000 people to 69,000 people a year. That was shocking to me. And, so far, if you look at what we have with the 15 people and their recovery, one is — one is pretty sick but hopefully will recover, but the others are in great shape. But think of that: 25,000 to 69,000. Over the last 10 years, we’ve lost 360,000.”
“But that’s a little bit like the flu. It’s a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we’ll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner.” — Trump at a White House coronavirus task force briefing.
Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders.
Feb. 28: “So a number that nobody heard of that I heard of recently, and I was shocked to hear it, 35,000 people on average die each year from the flu. Did anyone know that? … They say usually a minimum of 27, goes up to 100,000 people a year die, and so far we have lost nobody to coronavirus in the United States. Nobody. And it doesn’t mean we won’t and we are totally prepared. It doesn’t mean we won’t. But think of it, you hear 35 and 40,000 people and we’ve lost nobody. You wonder, the press is in hysteria mode.”
“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that, right? Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. … They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.” — Trump at a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina.
Feb. 29: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces the first confirmed death from COVID-19 in the United States. Later, autopsy results in California attributed two deaths in early and mid-February to the disease.
“No. No. No. Hoax referring to the action that they [Democrats] take to try and pin this on somebody because we’ve done such a good job. The hoax is on them not … I’m not talking about what’s happening here. I’m talking what they’re doing. That’s the hoax.” — Trump in a coronavirus task force briefing, when asked if he regretting using the word “hoax” the night before.
March
By mid-March, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic; the Trump administration took steps to slow the spread; and the president and the remaining Democratic candidates stopped staging public campaign events. But by the end of the month, Trump talked about reopening the U.S. and having “packed churches all over our country” for Easter.
March 2: Trump holds a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, his last rally before coronavirus shutdown measures are implemented across the country. Crowd-size estimates ranged from 7,000 to 15,000 people, according to WRAL-TV in Raleigh.
“My administration has also taken the most aggressive action in modern history to protect Americans from the coronavirus,” he says. “We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies and they’re going to have vaccines. I think relatively soon and they’re going to have something that makes you better and that’s going to actually take place, we think, even sooner.”
“I think it’s very safe,” Trump tells reporters that morning when asked whether having rallies during a public health crisis was safe.
March 4: “[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [infected]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [from a cruise ship]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” — Trump at a White House meeting with airline CEOs.
“Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News, referring to the percentage of diagnosed COVID-19 patients worldwide who had died, as reported by the World Health Organization. (See our item “Trump and the Coronavirus Death Rate.”)
March 6: “We’ve had 11 deaths, and they’ve been largely old people who are — who were susceptible to what’s happening. Now, that would be the case, I assume, with a regular flu too. If somebody is old and in a weakened state or ill, they’re susceptible to the common flu too. You know, they were telling me just now that the common flu kills people and old people is sort of a target.” — Trump after a tour of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.
March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of the coronavirus in the Washington, D.C., area.
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” — Trump in a tweet.
March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.
March 11: The WHO declares the global outbreak a pandemic.
The confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. hit 1,000. Testing is still limited. According to the COVID Tracking Project, there have been 20,166 test results in the country. Deaths number 31 people.
March 13: Trump declares a national emergency concerning the coronavirus.
March 15: “This is a very contagious — this is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.” — Trump at a White House task force briefing.
March 16: The White House announces recommendations for a 15-day period to slow the spread of the coronavirus, including staying at home if you feel sick, have a household member who tests positive or are older or have a serious health condition.
“When I’m talking about control, I’m saying we are doing a very good job within the confines of what we’re dealing with. We’re doing a very good job. … If you’re talking about the virus, no, that’s not under control for any place in the world. … I was talking about what we’re doing is under control.” — Trump at a White House task force press briefing.
March 17: “I’ve always known this is a — this is a real — this is a pandemic. I’ve felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” — Trump at a White House task force press briefing.
March 19: “To be honest with you, I wanted to always play it down. I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.” — Trump in an interview with journalist Woodward, released in September.
March 23: “People get tremendous anxiety and depression, and you have suicides over things like this when you have terrible economies. You have death. Probably and — I mean, definitely — would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about with regard to the virus.” — Trump at a White House task force briefing.
March 24: “So I think Easter Sunday and you’ll have packed churches all over our country. I think it would be a beautiful time. And it’s just about the timeline that I think is right.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News.
“I brought some numbers here, we lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don’t turn the country off, I mean every year. Now when I heard the number, we average 37,000 people a year. Can you believe that? And actually this year we’re having a bad flu season, but we lose thousands of people a year to the flu. We never turn the country off. We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies, say, ‘Stop making cars. We don’t want any cars anymore.’ We have to get back to work.” — Trump at a Fox News virtual town hall.
March 26: The U.S. has 100,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, more than any other country. The death toll hits 1,000.
March 29: “So you’re talking about 2.2. million deaths — 2.2 million people from this. And so, if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000 — that’s a horrible number — maybe even less, but to 100,000; so we have between 100- and 200,000 — we all, together, have done a very good job.” — Trump at a White House task force press briefing.
March 30: The White House extends its “slow the spread” recommendations to April 30.
“We can expect that, by June 1st, we will be well on our way to recovery. We think, by June 1st, a lot of great things will be happening.” — Trump in announcing the extension of those recommendations.
March 31: “I mean, I’ve had many friends, business people, people with great, actually, common sense, they said, ‘Why don’t we ride it out?’ A lot of people have said, a lot of people have thought about it, ‘Ride it out, don’t do anything, just ride it out, and think of it as the flu.’ But it’s not the flu.” — Trump at a White House task force briefing.
April
Jack, what’s the date when Elon’s going to eliminate Medicare to Save Money by tanking everyone’s retirement accounts?
Pointing out that a government expense is a private sector income, including spaceX, seems more like an econ 099 fact rather than econ 101.
To be clear: There isn’t “fat in government expenses,” there’s “lowered private sector business income as a direct result of gratuitous cuts to government expenses”
@Jack: I appreciate you at least trying.
And what kind of economy did he inherit and what were the global conditions? And what policies were relevant?
Also: the economy right now is pretty good (and especially as understood in a global context post-pandemic).
This is just a talking point. If Trump had been re-elected in 2020 that would not have forestalled Putin’s invasion of Ukraine nor would it have stopped Hamas’ attack on Israel.
The basic parameters of US border policy have been the same for decades and while there are some variations in the enforcement and implementation of some policies, the general legal regime doesn’t shift from president to president. Trump didn’t “close” the border” and Biden certainly didn’t “open” it. The laws are set by Congress.
The notion that the is some special relationship between crimes committed when Biden was president versus when Trump was president is absurd. Do you think that there was no drug and human trafficking when Trump was president?
I have been actively paying attention to drug policy for decades. I hate to tell you that there is no stopping them.
No, that is hardly all that opponents want to focus on.
But Trump defenders want him to get a mulligan. The most important job for a president is dealing with crises. Trump handled COVID very, very poorly, and that matters and has to be taken into account in any assessment of his presidency. There are reams of posts about this ob OTB.
And, likewise, any assessment of the presidency that came next has to be evaluated in terms of the conditions at that time.
You simply can’t say things like “eggs were cheaper in January of 2020 than they were in January of 2022 because of who the president was at those times.” It doesn’t work that way.
Career government functionaries scurry after Trump win
Thanks Steven. Jack’s effort in trying and engaging and you responding is good to see. But I find it hard to engage with people who just spout headlines from feeds and pass them as facts etc… I want empirical evidence, studies, statistics. And always never see them, usually then just devolves into whataboutisms and the next headline from their email/social media feeds, and then must end with a zinger or “owning” statement. But I appreciate your engagement and opinions in these forums and attempts to have meaningful exchanges with the few farther from center right folks that lurk here. I just wish some more serious folks from the right leaning side would pop in here. I know they exist and would make for a better back and forth. After all these years I can’t recall a serious one? Maybe I missed them
@JKB: Hopefully he is taking care to secure and preserve all evidence so that history may render the final judgment.
@Jack:
Because “They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats” is the height of sober, mature engagement. Why is Trump owed any more than what he puts out?
It’s hysterical to portray James Joyner as some huge leftist. But to expected from those who think quoting Trump and his own advisors makes one a communist/Marxist etc.
It’s juvenile to pretend drugs and sex trafficking are some brand new problems unique to Biden, when teen drug use is at historical lows.
It’s stupid to act like using ~5% of our total military budget to assist Ukraine is some outrageous burden.
It’s sophomoric to deny US immigration hasn’t been broken for decades, and to absolve Trump of responsibility for killing the bipartisan border bill after he passed no immigration law during his first tenure.
Trump had more US troops deployed to combat zones than Biden does. And COVID was not simply something that happened to Trump. He botched the response after Obama handed him eight years of uninterrupted economic growth.
None of that matters to Trump voters, and that’s fine. Because if Trump Republicans follow through on their extremist Project 2025 plan — as they are now suddenly promising to do — Trumpers will have only themselves to blame for losing their Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, etc. I hope for their sake he’s bluffing. But if they suffer consequences of their own blindness, so be it.
@Lounsbury:
And you think the Right is a marketplace of ideas? Seriously?
@Jc:
It is quite maddening, in fact.
@TheRyGuy:
He lies about the numbers (it isn’t 25 million).
He lies about how and when it happened.
He lies about how to fix it.
He lies, lies, lies about this subject.
All he offers on this subject is fear about the problem and a simpleton’s ignorance about solutions.
@TheRyGuy:
Trump passed no immigration bill in office, then killed a conservative border bill under Biden.
You cannot accept that James Joyner and other won’t allow this election to bully them into buying into your demagougic lies. That’s why you’re still angry, unhappy, and bitter despite your Pyrrhic victory. The mere fact of Joyner’s integrity indicts you, because you know you have none. An election can’t make you right when you’re not, and that’s why you’re still here, mad, ranting and raving. Sad!
@DK: Indeed all around.
It is amazing how angry our resident MAGAists are, despite their guy winning.
In a PhD orientation class I attended for reasons other than pursuing a PhD, the professor warned PhD candidates that they were receiving a formal education, but that they should never dismiss the avenues in which others without formal education receive knowledge.
My father, raised in in rural Kentucky, taught me that one should never dismiss someone because they are not formally educated. They may still be very cunning.
The above leads to my central point: Elitism is not the problem, theocracy is. And it has been since at least the 1980s. I participated in a Methodist-sponsored program that aimed to reveal to people God’s grace for them during a week-end retreat. It was a great program, but stopped because it became a political avenue for some to promote Christian theocracy. I remember one man who proclaimed that the Statue of Liberty should carry a cross rather than a beacon of light. My stomach curled, and that was the beginning of me leaving the program.
Trump is the useful idiot for the Christian theocracy movement in America.
@Skookum:
This is the part with which I do not agree. I see it as a transactional relationship. There is too much personal gain for Trump to describe him as a useful idiot.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Because we refuse to see the “light” and spread our legs to their clown fuhrer savior.
You know, like they’ve done.
Not that it matters, but as they’re finishing up counting the votes, it appears that, if Trump won a majority of votes, it was a very bare majority. Numerically, there were no 10 million missing Biden voters, they just live in the wrong states.