The Biden “Legacy” Conversation

An observation or two.

Source: The White House

I understand that it is natural at this moment of transition from one administration to the other to reflect on the past. On that level, I get all of the “legacy” talk that has been swirling around. However, I have to admit that it strikes me a bit early to be doing serious retrospectives of a given presidential administration in its final week. Of course, a legitimate retort to that observation would be to note that perhaps such assessments aren’t all that serious.

I would also note that there are two intertwined issues in these conversations: the policy outcomes and the political ones. Policy legacies, which to me are the way we ultimately need to assess presidencies, take time to understand and analyze fully. Political legacies, if taken in terms of wins and losses are more immediate. Did a president win two terms? Was the president succeeded by a co-partisan? What about Congress? And so forth.

At a bare minimum, it seems that most of the answers to the question, “What is Biden’s legacy?” is very much wrapped up in the fact that the next president is not a Democrat.

This is fair, I suppose, insofar as winning re-election (or seeing a co-partisan succeed you) is an important political goal and is seen to reflect whether one’s performance in office met sufficient public approval.

And, I get it: there is a reasonable counterfactual wherein Biden stepped aside from running for re-election earlier and that that would have somehow changed the outcome. But, of course, there is no way to know for sure. Moreover, I would again share this graph:

Given this stunning (indeed, unprecedented) anti-incumbency mindset globally, it seems that we were destined to have the Democrats lose. But, maybe two years of campaigning by Harris, or a full primary process would have made a difference, but I have doubts it would have been enough to overcome to post-pandemic/economic backlash that wracked the globe. Of course, we will never know.

All of that is background to a reaction to this piece in The Atlantic: How Biden Destroyed His Legacy.

First, the title struck me as extreme (“destroyed” just seems a bit much), although it did its job and got me to read the piece.

Second, as one might guess, the issue was, ultimately, the fact that the Democrats lost the White House. Specifically the following:

As clearly as any recent president, Biden proposed the standard for judging his performance. From the time he began running for office, he presented himself as democracy’s defender at the republic’s moment of greatest peril. Battling autocracy was the stated rationale for his foreign policy—and the same spirit infused his domestic agenda. He said that he’d designed his legislative program as a demonstration project, to show that “our democracy can still do big things.”

When Biden issued his public warnings about the system’s fragility, he tended to deliberately avoid mentioning Donald Trump by name, but the implication was clear enough. The inability to stave off a second Trump term, and the stress on democracy that it would inevitably bring, would be the gravest catastrophe of them all. By stubbornly setting off on his reelection campaign, by strapping his party to his shuffling frame, he doomed the nation to realizing the nightmare scenario that he’d promised to prevent. He created the ideal conditions for Trump’s return, and for his own spectacular failure.

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.’s obituary will be stalked by the counterfactual: What if he hadn’t made the selfish decision to run for reelection? What if he had passed the torch a year or even six months earlier? That makes for a grim parlor game.

Several thoughts occur to me.

First, I am struck by the fact that the blame for Trump should be laid at Biden’s feet. On the one hand, I get it. Biden himself, as noted in the quoted text, made defeating Trump the measure of his presidency in many ways. But Trump is far more the legacy of the Republicans (and specifically McConnell and McCarthy, not to mention Republican voters) than it is Joe Biden’s. I guess I am struck by the frequent attempts to make all of this the Democrat’s fault. If only they had had this candidate or that message!

It just seems worth pointing out that Democrats didn’t nominate Trump and Democrats did not elect him.

Second, I think there is a real and deeper way in which a critique of Biden’s legacy on the broader area of democracy protection, and even protection from Trump, is legitimate. The appointment of Merrick Garland/the far too lackadaisical approach to dealing with the January 6th Insurrection was a mistake (or a serious thereof). There was violence deployed in the cause of disrupting a constitutional process to elect the president and we kind of shrugged it off in a way that was inadequate. And that is a legacy we are very much dealing with.

The Democratic Party, as a whole, did not take the fortification of democratic processes seriously enough when it controlled the federal government in Biden’s first two years. That, too, is a legacy we are dealing with. Granted, there was a pandemic and its economic consequences that needed addressing (not to mention people like Joe Manchin), but the lack of much in the way of legislation in this realm was a failure.

But, of course, I think this fits into a broader problem: a lot of people, including pundits and politicians, talk about democracy and the threats thereto without really much understanding about what it actually means. And hence, we get little action. That is another legacy will will continue to live with.

At any rate, I am less concerned, ultimately, with Biden’s “legacy” as I am that a plurality of the country voted for Trump, that he continues to be normalized, and that we are about to have a cabinet full of unqualified cronies running the government.

And that, I would note, is the legacy of Trump and the Republicans and while we can blame Joe Biden for not stopping it, the voters and the Republican Party own the responsibility for all of this, yes?

BTW, I would recommend reading the whole Atlantic piece. However I will warn some readers who insist that Biden’s incompetence had been hidden from us in a conspiratorial manner will be disappointed. The reporter fully acknowledges Biden’s age-related problems, but instead noted the following.

All that said, I have never seen evidence that he made bad decisions because of his age. I’ve never seen evidence that his aides were actually dictating policy without his consent. At worst, his flagging energy undermined his credibility as a leader and projected weakness to his adversaries, at home and abroad, although those cautious tendencies arguably predated his decline.

FILED UNDER: 2024 Election, The Presidency, US Politics, , , , , , , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Michael Reynolds says:

    All things are relative. Is Biden a great president compared to Lincoln or FDR? No. Is he a great president compared to a rapist? Yes. A Big Mac might not immediately seem great, but if it’s on a buffet table where the other choices are pig turds on a bed of limp kale, well. . .

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  2. reid says:

    Yes, it always irritates me when people, mainstream people like traditional media, often criticize Democrats for not winning. I get it that people are frustrated and there are ways Democrats can improve, but it can be unhelpful and even damaging. Meanwhile, Republicans continue to act like villains and win elections. It’s like the Middle Earth Times constantly harping about the Shire not doing enough about the Sauron problem.

    Yes, I know it’s complicated and I’m over-simplifying. Still frustrating.

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  3. gVOR10 says:

    I watched Biden’s nearly hour long interview with Lawrence O’Donnell last night. Solid accomplishments, stumbling delivery, sometimes wandering thoughts, but good thoughts. A very successful president and no way he would have done better than Harris in the election.

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  4. Slugger says:

    Agree with waiting a bit to assess. Perspective matters, and time lets seeds sprout. There is an anecdote that Chou En-Lai was asked about the French Revolution in 1968 and said it’s too soon to judge.

  5. Kathy says:

    There’s a lot of talk about cognitive decline these days. It matters, yes, but nuance about it matters, too. As per Kathy’s First law, nothing is ever that simple.

    My mom’s about Bidens age, and not in as good a shape. Has she declined mentally? absolutely. But take yesterday. the doctor called her rather late to tell her she needed to take a six day course of an antibiotic. The problem is he didn’t write a prescription, and the drug is taken by injection.

    I suggested we call her grandson in law, who is a doctor, to write a prescription he could take a photo of. Mom called a pharmacy that doesn’t mind selling antibiotics without a prescription*.

    Then there was the matter of the shot. My nephew in law wasn’t nearby, and the pharmacy’s nurse had left for the day. while I drove to get the medication, mom called a private ambulance service (non-profit) an arranged to have a paramedic administer the shot.

    I’m sure there was a better, faster solution, but I’ve no idea what it is.

    *I’m opposed to this, as antibiotic misuse is a grave threat to all. But we did have a prescription, even if a verbal one, so my conscience is clear this time.

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  6. gVOR10 says:

    @Kathy:

    As per Kathy’s First law, nothing is ever that simple.

    That alone would make you a lousy Republican.

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  7. Michael Cain says:

    Once enough time has gone by for things to shake out, Biden’s legacy will be that he — and the Democrats in Congress — failed to realize that the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court were engineering a major restructure of the federal government. Biden/Pelosi/Schumer will get high marks for what they accomplished as the last to play the game under the old rules. Possibly catastrophically low marks as the Court rolled back individual rights, crippled the regulatory agencies, made state legislatures much more powerful, and allowed dividing those state legislatures into two fundamentally opposed groups.

    Predictions are hard, of course, especially about the future. Not an original thought :^)

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  8. Gustopher says:

    People on the socials are saying that Biden will be remembered for his speech warning of oligarchy and the tech industrial complex.

    I expect he will not, as if the warning is accurate, the oligarchs and the tech industrial complex will bury that speech under a mountain of lies and fake news. And if it isn’t accurate, it will just be the ramblings of an old man who will be falsely depicted as senile anyway.

    And I think this sums of what Biden’s legacy will be — buried under lies.

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  9. DK says:

    Shot:

    Truman declines to seek another term, March 29, 1952 (Politico)

    After being upset in the New Hampshire Democratic primary by Tennessee Sen. Estes Kefauver, President Harry S. Truman, who had taken office in April 1945, said on this day in 1952 that he would not run for what effectively would have been a third term. Truman declared: “I have served my country long, and I think effectively and honestly.”

    Historian Michael Beschloss has observed that by late 1951 the Truman presidency was at a low point. In February, his popularity rating fell to an all-time low of 22 percent. Despite an unpopular set of price controls that Truman had implemented, inflation and joblessness were rising. While the Democrats controlled Congress, divisions within the party —notably between Truman and veteran Southern committee chairs — impeded the president’s ability to advance his legislative agenda.

    Moreover, the Korean War — Truman termed it “a police action” — seemed to be in a stalemate. And “minor scandals among aides close to the president,” as Beschloss wrote, “contributed to an impression of seediness and low morality in the White House.”

    In July, the Democrats nominated Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson, as his successor. Stevenson faced Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower…

    Chaser:

    Harry Truman remains near top of presidential ranking based on leadership (Colombia Midsourian)

    Harry Truman remains near the top of a list of U.S. presidents ranked this year by C-SPAN, the public affairs TV network.

    Truman, who was born in Lamar and grew up in Independence, landed in sixth place, ahead of Thomas Jefferson, John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. The ranking is based on leadership.

    Abraham Lincoln holds first place, while George Washington is No. 2, Franklin Roosevelt is No. 3, Teddy Roosevelt is No. 4 and Dwight Eisenhower is No. 5.

    Bringing up dead last in the 2021 survey was James Buchanan, who finished 44th. Andrew Jackson stumbled to 43rd. Tied for 41st: Franklin Pierce and newcomer Donald Trump, who was eligible for the first time.

    If things progress naturally, I should live long enough to see historians recognize the obvious vis a vis Old Man Biden. If I’m lucky and blessed enough to reach old age myself, maybe I’ll get to interview for one of those ‘looking back on a era’ documentaries, and tell the camera, “Chile, people like me never understood what they were smoking. Ageism + racism + sexism is a helluva cocktail drug.”

    (Just watched one such doc this week, made in 1970s, with survivors of the Victorian Era. Thank goodness some producer thought to document that.)

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  10. mistermix says:

    Unless you think that Mexico is not a developed country (12th largest economy in the world) that graph is wrong, and I wish that people would stop re-posting it. Morena went from 55% of the vote in 2018 to 61% in 2024.

  11. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Gustopher: Legacy happens after the people who have axes to grind about the person being legacied have passed on. For us to talk about Biden’s legacy is presumptuous. Let history decide what it will when we’re gone.

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  12. Kathy says:

    @mistermix:

    I’ve lived all my life in Mexico, a curious consequence of having been born in Mexico City to parents who resided there, and I can say this without hesitation:

    Mexico is not a developed country.

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  13. @mistermix: I think you raise a couple of worthwhile points.

    1. What is the exact data set?
    2. Is “developed countries” the right label?
    3. Does Mexico provide a useful counter-example?

    In regards to #1, given that the data stretches back to 1950, this is almost certainly a dataset made up of the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and western Europe. I will admit that is a guess.

    In regards to #2, the whole “developed”/”not developed” classification scheme is fraught and complicated and likely was not the best choice for this graph.

    In regards to #3, Mexico does provide a useful data point that is not included.

    Having said all of that, I disagree that the graph shouldn’t be used. It does provide a striking pattern of the countries in the data set.

  14. Scott F. says:

    It just seems worth pointing out that Democrats didn’t nominate Trump and Democrats did not elect him.

    Amen to that.

    Yet, it appears the punditry is already laying the groundwork to blame the Democrats for any and all damage that might/will come from the Republicans nominating Trump and offering him as the anti-incumbent choice in the global anti-incumbent mindset that was 2024. Because as always, only Democrats have agency.

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  15. Kathy says:

    @Scott F.:

    IMO, it would be fair to blame one democrat, namely Merrick Garland, for not prosecuting the felon in a timely manner. We all saw several of his crimes live on TV, not to mention we heard some evidence in the news (like the call to the Georgia secretary of state).

    Now, it’s possible the felon, with the aid of the Leo Court, might have run out the clock anyway. How likely this is, I’ll leave to others better acquainted with the law. But running out 4 years is harder than running out two years. And there was no need to investigate whether a crime, or several crimes, had been committed, but to find the evidence and witnesses to bring criminal charges. It didn’t take Smith that long to do so.

    We’ll never know if that would have made any difference. We do know Garland didn’t do all he could to safeguard American democracy.

  16. steve says:

    Just to add to the discussion this piece on Biden handling illegal immigration is good. Lots of detail and lots of numbers. It’s long but in short. illegal immigration was already rising while Trump was in office. Illegal immigration is already back down below what it was in 2019. This tracks employment opportunities rather than any specific policies so this was the primary driver of illegal immigration. In general, Biden deported way more illegals than Trump. The Title 42 programs set up by Trump had major flaws especially since it didnt allow people from more southern or western countries to be returned to their countries of origin.

    The US has recovered much faster and better than any other developed country. This is probably largely due to the influx of immigrants to meet our labor needs.

    https://www.alexnowrasteh.com/p/biden-didnt-cause-the-border-crisis

    Steve

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  17. The Q says:

    Obama also deported many more illegals than Trump yet the La Raza wing of the party wouldn’t let that message out since they wrongly thought this would alienate Latino voters.

    The same thing happened with the drill baby drill response. Biden/Dems just couldn’t consistently crow that we were the #1 global producer of oil since this would offend the climate changers.

    So on the crucial issues of the border and gas prices, we neutered our own message because of the extremist wokers who still schite on voters for Trump as being racist misogynist know nothings. Then we wonder why we lost.