The GOP’s ObamaCare Dilemma
They hate the program but have no viable alternative.
WSJ (“Republicans Relive Healthcare Nightmare as Midterms Loom“):
Republicans suffered through a recurring nightmare this week: their inability to replace or at least unwind the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare program.
For the past decade, President Trump and the party have raged against the 2010 law, only to see legislative attempts to decouple it from the American economy fail. This week was no different, as a Republican proposal to replace ACA subsidies with sending federal funds directly to some households for out-of-pocket healthcare costs failed to advance in the Republican-controlled Senate.
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A separate Democratic proposal to extend the enhanced Covid-era ACA subsidies for three years also failed to pass in the Senate Thursday, despite the support of four Republicans—Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri. Combined, the failed votes increase the likelihood that millions of Americans will see their healthcare costs rise next year, during a pivotal midterm campaign season.
Democrats say they plan to make the issue a centerpiece of their effort to flip both chambers of Congress. House Republicans hold a narrow 220-213 majority, while senators hold a balance of 53-47. Sixty votes are needed to advance most legislation in the Senate.
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The focus on health-insurance premiums has moved the political discussion onto one of the few topics on which Democrats have an advantage. Americans’ approval of the ACA edged up to a new high of 57% in December, according to a Gallup poll. An NBC poll in October found that Democrats hold a 23-point advantage among registered voters over Republicans on the party best equipped to deal with healthcare.
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Republicans are caught between the belief among many GOP lawmakers that markets, rather than expensive government programs, should play the leading role in providing coverage and the fact that many GOP voters have come to rely on coverage from the law, often called Obamacare.
The GOP plan for health savings accounts could help with out-of-pocket costs for people with eligible insurance plans, but it doesn’t address the fundamental problem for individuals who are unable to afford insurance. It is also unlikely to be adequate for many insured people who need expensive care. Insurance plans that are paired with HSAs can be very skinny, with high deductibles, which could force some enrollees to pay more than $10,000 next year before coverage kicks in. That cost would far surpass the up to $1,500 the Republican bill would put into accounts to cover out-of-pocket expenses.
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Republican opposition to Obamacare still runs deep. The law, described by Republicans as government overreach, helped fuel the tea party movement and Republicans’ successful effort to reclaim a House majority in 2010. Trump made it a central part of his 2016 presidential campaign. By the time Republicans had enough power in Washington to repeal the law, it had become more popular. Americans didn’t want to lose protections for pre-existing conditions, or the ability to keep adult children on their insurance until age 26, key provisions of the law. Republicans came close in 2017 but failed, with then-Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) delivering a decisive thumb’s down in one critical vote.
Jonathan Chait (“Obamacare Changed the Politics of Health Care“):
Fifteen years after its passage, the ACA is a gigantic political pain point for the GOP. You would think Republicans would have made their peace with the law by now and turned their attention to other issues. But unlike pretty much every other conservative party in the industrialized world, where the legitimacy of universal health coverage is largely a given, the GOP seems resigned to bleed out on health care.
Alargely unspoken article of faith for Republicans is that access to medical care is a matter of personal responsibility. They don’t generally advertise this belief, because it is not popular—a growing share of Americans believe that it is the government’s duty to ensure all citizens have health-care coverage, according to Gallup. So the party’s strategy instead was to fight proposals to expand coverage. Until the ACA, this proved effective.
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The ACA broke through decades of gridlock by keeping the employer-based system intact and building up coverage options for people who couldn’t access it. Low-income workers, whose jobs mostly didn’t provide health care, would get Medicaid. People with higher incomes who didn’t have access to employer coverage would get subsidized coverage on individual exchanges, which would have to sell plans to customers regardless of health status.
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[Republicans have not] fully assimilated how the politics of health insurance have changed since the law’s passage. It was easy enough for Republicans to block health-care reform when a program to expand coverage didn’t exist. Taking insurance away from people who have it, or jacking up the price they pay to get it, is a completely different matter.
I opposed ObamaCare from the outset, not because of any ideological opposition to government involvement in healthcare, but because trying to preserve the private insurance model while glomming a welfare system on top of it was in many ways the worst of both worlds. I would have preferred—and still prefer—simply expanding Medicare.
The problem is that Democrats at least acknowledged that there was a problem—access to medical care in this country is incredibly expensive and mostly dependent on employer subsidy—while Republicans whistled past the graveyard. They opposed ObamaCare but never came up with a viable alternative.
And Chait is of course right: once people get used to a government subsidy, they expect it to continue indefinitely. (Republicans use the same tactic: a “temporary” tax cut’s expiration will be painted as “raising taxes” as leverage to force its renewal.)
Rather than subsidize insurance companies, just cut out the middle man and give people healthcare.
Yep. Good summary of the problem.
And the “solution” that Speaker Johnson trotted out last night is full of ancient, unworkable nonsense that Republicans have been half-heartedly suggesting for DECADES. How do I know this? Because I remember the “association plans” from my time in government…THIRTY YEARS AGO.
As many have pointed out, the big problem Republicans have with being anti-Obamacare is that Obamacare IS RomneyCare, AKA, the Republican solution. They wanted to keep money flowing to insurance companies. They didn’t want to expand the government option, say by allowing 50 and up into Medicare.
The smartest way forward is to allow people to buy into Medicare, while encouraging private insurers to design add-on plans with benefits that augment Medicare. (This is what you can do in many European countries, you’re covered by the national system which is basic, and then you can buy private policies to enhance your coverage.)
Republicans backed themselves into a corner by opposing Obamacare, when they COULD have taken credit for the idea.
I fear we are close to a systemic collapse, because Republican lawsuits have hacked away at the foundations of Obamacare. They’ve damaged the best chance they had to preserve the existing system.
FAFO.
One of the fears of Dem moderates regarding medicare for all is forcing those on employer paid plans to give them up. No one embraces change ya know. The answer to that is let the employers stop sponsoring plans so the villain isn’t government but the employer.
If employers are paying a payroll tax to support M4A, they’ll quickly begin dropping insurance as a benefit, except perhaps, as a M4A add on.
Expecting the same people who want to do away with Medicare to expand Medicare is just silly.
Then there is the biggest impediment for MAGA, it makes perfect sense.
The party currently running things believes in nonsense, not good sense.
They are the “lowest common denominator” the founders feared.
@Daryl: While MAGA rejection of reality is certainly enabling, I expect insurance company lobbyists have more to do with Republican intransigence. The drafters of Obamacare put a lot of effort into drafting a plan to help the uninsured that the insurance companies wouldn’t actively fight. Improving Obamacare is probably the best we can aim for without massive re$i$tance from the insurance companies.
Medical care is inherently a non market activity. A market means open access for providers; in an open market for tomatoes, anyone can set up a stand and sell their tomatoes. Medical care requires licensing and credentialing which automatically limits the number of providers. I don’t think that a system where anyone can call themselves a neurosurgeon without limits would work. On the client side, an open market requires the ability to pick and choose and to walk away freely. Medical problems create duress, and you can’t exercise free choice when you’re having chest pain, break your leg, or go into active labor. Can you imagine the following open market discussion, “Hi, I just got shot. What do you charge for a blood transfusion?”
The customer is under duress plus the provider has to be certified. The result is not a market. Never a market. We do not live in a cloud-cuckoo land where the libertarian fantasies of 20 year old undergraduates work! We will have a mess as long as we refuse to recognize reality.
Of course, realistic answers don’t result in electability, and that’s the problem.