The Limits of Trump’s Power
The fight over the continuing resolution raises some questions.
WaPo’s Dan Balz analyzes the bizarre scramble to keep the government funded over the holidays (“Republicans averted a shutdown, yet showed boundaries of Trump’s power“):
It could have been worse. In the end, Congress averted a government shutdown. But the events leading up to Friday’s late-night passage of a spending bill illustrated the perils of governing that President-elect Donald Trump and congressional Republicans are likely to face in the year ahead, even when they have control of all branches of government.
As we’ve seen over and over in recent years, having a President and slim majorities in the House and Senate does not necessarily equate to “control of all branches of government.” We saw that as recently as Joe Biden’s first term, when the recalcitrance of Joe Manchen and Kyrsten Sinema derailed the President’s agenda time and again. And, of course, even if one can get every member of the party coalition on board, the existence of the filibuster in the Senate means that, effectively, the party gets two shots a year at passing whatever than can through the loophole of the reconciliation process.
The drama of the past week highlighted problems for various players. For Trump, this was recognition that as much power as he has, there are limits to what governing-by-Truth-Social can accomplish in a legislative environment. No wonder Trump prefers executive action and recess appointments to the gritty business of holding his own party together.
Trump can dictate and he can threaten, as he has been doing. His allies can warn Republican lawmakers in the House or the Senate that if they don’t toe the line, they will face primary challenges. But when 38 House Republicans reject his entreaties, as they did at one point in the negotiations over the legislation to keep the government open, that’s evidence that his power has boundaries.
So, one would hope. It gives some indication, at least, that they feared backlash from their voters over shutting down the government just before Christmas more than they feared punishment from Trump. But if Trump successfully follows through on his threats to primary those who bucked him—backed by Elon Musk’s infinite bankroll–that could change.
Then again, whether a handful of Republicans actually stood up to Trump during this debacle is not all that clear. The WaPo report “How Trump and Musk set off the shutdown crisis — but got little in return” points to confusion and lack of communication between principals.
Some time after Donald Trump won the Nov. 5 election, he told House Speaker Mike Johnson that he wanted the federal debt limit taken care of before he took office, according to people close to both leaders. That’s all they agree on.
After that, the accounts diverge. Multiple House Republican lawmakers said the president-elect mentioned eliminating the debt ceiling casually and in passing, and that he understood Johnson’s explanation that the proposal didn’t have the votes to pass. Hill Republicans broadly agreed that no one got the impression Trump was repeatedly and clearly demanding that they raise the debt ceiling before Christmas. His sudden red line Wednesday reverberated across the Capitol, shocking House and Senate Republicans.
Advisers to Trump, though, said he had made his position clear to Johnson for weeks or even a month — long before going public Wednesday with the demand that upended the lame-duck congressional session and brought the government to the brink of shutting down.
This is followed by a long who-shot-John based on dozens of anonymous accounts from Congressmen and those in the Trump camp.
Back to Balz:
Whether it’s levels of government spending or nominations for his Cabinet and other positions that require Senate confirmation, Trump and his party may control both chambers in the coming year but not with such commanding majorities that he can have his way willy nilly.
Will this past week’s drama, for example, remind Republicans in the Senate that they represent a separate branch of government and therefore have the power to block a few of Trump’s most controversial nominees, even at the risk of displeasing him?
Presumably, they had not forgotten their Constitutional role. The question, again, is whether they’ll value stopping wildly unqualified people from holding some of the most important posts in our government enough to weather the backlash Trump and his minions can unleash on them. Joni Ernst, who was brave enough to lead two battalions of soldiers in Iraq, did not.
Regardless, as Balz notes and we’ve all seen in recent years, the real problem for Republicans is their oddball coalition in the House.
House Republicans again revealed themselves as a fractured family. No surprise there. Trump can’t do much about that, but it will affect his legislative agenda, most clearly on how much and where the government spends its money. He lost a battle to suspend the debt ceiling for two years, revealing a split within Republican ranks over the debt, deficits and spending cuts that has been playing out for years and giving a succession of Republican speakers heartburn.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), in fits and starts, got the win needed to avert a shutdown. But victory again required the help of Democrats and again underscored his vulnerability in a GOP conference that has only a slender majority and that will have an even smaller majority in the new Congress next year — one of the smallest in history.
Johnson emerged with big questions about whether he can be reelected as speaker in January. If Democrats under House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (New York) hold firm, Johnson would need a fully united conference behind him when the election of a speaker comes up at the start of the new Congress.
Already, there are some Republicans who are saying they will not support him. Let’s see what transpires over the next few weeks. Do they want to start the second Trump era mired in their own internal battles at a time when the incoming president wants to tell the country and the world that he and his party are in charge and prepared to do the people’s business?
Republicans made a hash of themselves at the beginning of the last Congress, going through 15 ballots before they elected then-Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-California) as speaker, only to depose him less than a year later. Getting Johnson elected required more drama and missteps. Would another contested speaker’s race be any different?
Presumably, it all depends on whether Trump endorses him or sics his horde on him.
And, of course, there’s a new wild card:
The newest player in all this was Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person and seeming a confidant of Trump who is using his association with the president-elect to the fullest. Musk helped kill the first bipartisan spending package with posts on his X social media platform, some with inaccurate claims about the legislation, that helped sink what Johnson thought was a carefully crafted agreement.
It’s not at all clear to what degree Trump controls Musk or vice-versa. If the two work in tandem, though, Trump’s power is certainly heightened.
While some in the far right caucus have earned and deserved their stupid lapel pins others are shrewd ideologues who know that trump’s ramblings on tariffs, deportations, etc are going to cause a huge amount of economic pain and will, when implemented, prove unpopular, along with the president, hollowing out his primary challenge threats. From their POV, the pain will be worth it to shrink government and trump will be blamed for the results.
I am surprised that more coverage has not been given to this budget making people with public pensions, teachers, police, firefighters, now eligible for full Social Security payments. That was a large addition to SS spending makes the date of insolvency approach faster.
Steve
The difference between Trump I and Trump II is that this time he’s got a VP who’s a conniving SOB who’s tight with high tech and finance billionaires (including Musk, who’s acting out right now but will calm down) who the GOP congress critters can go to as an intermediary. It’s Trump who will find himself outflanked before 2025 is up, and when he looks over his shoulder he’ll see a crowd around Vance, not following Trump himself. Not only that, but his sons seem to have broken free of the dad-leash too. Trump doesn’t realize how isolated he just might be.
I expect that Trump will not be able to move huge blocks of votes, but will be able (as with Ernst) to put a lot of pressure on individuals who are threatening to block his goals.
Trump is very easily led if you flatter him. I would think that Musk is controlling him.
So no criticism of the Democrats playing the government shutdown game? They’ve only been doing it for decades now.
1. Do away with the normal appropriation process.
2. Don’t pass a budget until the government is almost out of funding.
3. Propaganda blitz from the media about the horrors of a government shutdown, although we’ve been through this before and the world didn’t come to end.
4. Jam as much corruption into an ‘omnibus’ package as they think they can politically get away with.
Is that what you call governance?
@steve: If I’m understanding the measure correctly, it’s really, really limited. Public employees have been under the Social Security system since 1984, so it’s only those who were in before that that are affected. Additionally, there was apparently some weird offset in survivor’s benefits for surviving spouses who themselves had public employee pensions.
@CSK:
Dogs come to like the leash, too.
The Republicans fear Trump voters more than they fear Trump himself. Trump cut loose long dormant MAGA entitlement, xenophobia (fear of all Others, not just foreign ones), and racism, then showed supernatural ability in manipulating that mob. With policy moderation dead on the Right, the Republicans embraced Trumpism as the only means to power. It worked. The GOP has found itself back in power because just enough of the unengaged electorate followed the mob during an anti-incumbent wave.
So Trump’s great strength is manipulating the voters the GOP needs but fears. It turns out Unelected Oligarch Musk can manipulate them really well himself. Oopsy. This next four years is going to be ugly, chaotic, and dangerous. People are going to get hurt.
@joe:
Joe, I’ll point out that since Jan, 2023 R’s have controlled the House and the Constitution specifies that budget and finance bill must originate there. So it is you beloved R’s that have been responsible for creating the bills and gathering support for passage.
@joe:
It’s Republicans who have refused to work with Democrats. These crises are all GOP/Fox-manufactured in order to rile up low information voters. Gotta keep the suckers angry while Republicans lie about the cuts they’d like to make, but gosh darn it, can’t cuz: libtards.
We’re all done bailing out dishonest, hypocritical Republican hacks. You made the bed, lie in it and enjoy your Republican bedbugs.
@Scott F,:
If Trump were not a rapist pig, I’d almost feel sorry for the Ultimate Attention Whore, being upstaged by a real billionaire who now, he can’t figure out how to get rid of.
Is it too early to Brangelina Trump and Musk? Trusk? Mump? Elonald?
As for bullying the House, not so easy when you have a margin of what, four votes? Too early to start threatening to primary. All he can do is set the rabid MAGAts on individual members. And what if that doesn’t work?
It begins:
http://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-elon-musk-presidency/
Musk may net be de jure president, but he’ll probably be de facto president.
@Michael Reynolds:
It’s never too early to brand a new phenomenon. I think I like “Mump” as the portmanteau best. It resonates with its evocation of a contagious viral infection, yet it’s singular which is fitting.
I expect that Mump will go around, if not over, the Congress. The direct oligarchic power Professor Taylor has warned us about is here. The Congress only serves as semblance of a foil.
@Michael Reynolds:
Defenestration
@CSK:
He doth protest too much.
@Scott F.:
“Mump” means to mumble, mutter, grimace, sulk, beg, cheat, or sponge.
All of which fairly describe Trump.
There was stuff in the original compromise budget that limited transfer of some technology to China. That is gone now.
So, while Trump got little in return, I’m not sure we can say that about the Muskrat.
@CSK:
My guess is Trump is looking for someone to do most of the day-to-day job of being POTUS for him, same as last time with Bannon and Jared. He likes playing the game but hates the real work.
This time it’s JD and Musk. Jared won over Bannon because Bannon grossly underestimated Trump’s ego. Jared was careful to speak as little as possible, but Bannon wanted, or at least didn’t fear, placing himself in the spotlight. For that reason I would bet on JD over Musk.
@CSK:
Well, didn’t President Xlon pay for it?
Surely the felon understands this.
@joe:
Every ‘government shutdown’ of the past three decades or so has been a planned strategy of the Republican Party. They’ve gambled that Democrats would take the hit if they didn’t cave-in to Republican demands. Democrats have not caved-in and Republicans have rightfully been blamed for their by-now annual ‘this time for sure’ shutdown Kabuki.
And there you have it. It’s that simple.
@dazedandconfused:
I can see that.
@Kathy:
I think Trump has convinced himself that he did it on his own.