Two weeks from the midterm elections, the 2028 presidential race is already underway, Evan Gorelick notes for the NYT (“The 2028 Presidential ‘Shadow Primary’ Descends on the Midterms“)
Gov. Gavin Newsom of California spent his Saturday weaving through New Hampshire, campaigning with midterm candidates as he faced questions about his presidential ambitions. Next weekend, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is weighing another White House bid, plans to be in the state with the Democratic Senate nominee. And days after that, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who is also considering a run, will appear there, too.
In the final stage of this year’s midterms, prospective presidential candidates are parachuting into battleground states to rally support for candidates on the ballot this fall, road-test their stump speeches, and introduce themselves to voters and activists. The Democratic schedule is especially packed in New Hampshire, an early presidential nominating state where there is a competitive Senate race. While New Hampshire has lost its long vaunted first-in-the-nation Democratic primary status to South Carolina, it will go third in 2028.
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Ambitious Republicans, too, are trying to leave lasting marks across the country in this year’s high-stakes elections. Vice President JD Vance and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas are hitting the road for midterm candidates, including in states expected to figure prominently in the next G.O.P. presidential race.
In both parties, the possible presidential candidates’ itineraries reflect their standings, showing where they are in demand and where they are not. At times, midterm candidates have subtly or loudly distanced themselves from some of them.
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“I think of political campaigns like building a house. You have to build the foundation first before building the walls. That’s what these visits are,” said Jim Demers, a veteran New Hampshire Democratic strategist, who like other operatives refers to the current phase as the “shadow primary.”
Presumably, Harris and Vance, in particular, already have a foundation. Harris, after all, was her party’s presidential nominee two years ago and Vance is the sitting vice president. But campaigning for future Senators certainly builds goodwill and serves as practice for a future run.
While others similarly say they are solely focused on this year’s elections, Democratic and Republican strategists see multiple purposes in these visits.
“A campaign for president is like having an endoscopy and a colonoscopy at the same time,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. “A lot of candidates are truly deciding whether they want to do this.”
Having had those procedures simultaneously earlier this year, I can attest that this analogy makes no sense whatsoever. For one thing, the patient is asleep the whole time. For another, it has nothing to do with making a decision; once you’ve shown up for the procedure, you’ve already done the hard part.
Midterm travel may be especially attractive to lesser-known politicians looking to raise their national profiles, and to those who don’t hold public office.
Mr. Buttigieg, who left his post in the Biden administration in early 2025, has endorsed more than 100 candidates this cycle and campaigned for them in more than 30 states. Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky has headlined Democratic Party dinners or conventions in nine states, including several that will hold early presidential primaries. Representative Ro Khanna of California has campaigned for more than 70 candidates.
While I have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be in 2028, I am exceedingly confident that it will not be Ro Khanna. I’m skeptical that four years as Transportation Secretary helped Buttigieg’s chances, but he did very well in the early going in 2020 as a complete unknown. Beshear has no national profile, is likely too conservative for the Democratic nominating electorate, but would be an intriguing choice.
Others have been more selective with their travels. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, recently campaigned in Michigan, another early-nominating state, with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate. She plans to appear in Maine this week with Troy Jackson, the Democratic Senate nominee there.
The country faces a “pivotal and consequential moment,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said in Michigan on Friday. She brushed aside speculation about her 2028 plans, saying, “What matters right now is the next 19 days.”
While House backbencher has seldom been a successful launching pad for a presidential run, AOC’s star power in the party is undeniable. Still, she seems more likely to knock off Chuck Schumer for a Senate seat than to be our next President.
Ms. Harris also recently appeared with Dr. El-Sayed. She plans to visit Nevada, an early-nominating state, as well as Mississippi, Georgia and Wisconsin.
But Senate candidates in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas have publicly and pre-emptively uninvited Ms. Harris, whose ties to the Biden administration have made her unwelcome in some conservative-leaning states.
That doesn’t bode well for her.
Some potential presidential candidates have sought to balance their own re-elections: Govs. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are on the ballot in November. Mr. Shapiro recently started a federal political-action committee that enables him to give money to congressional candidates.
It’s always weird to be campaigning for one office with an eye towards another. But Barack Obama and George W. Bush both successfully secured their party’s presidential nominations before finishing out their terms in their previous offices. Like Bush, Pritzker and Shapiro are running for second terms.
On the Republican side, Mr. Vance has campaigned in Kansas, Michigan and other battlegrounds. In Michigan on Thursday, he called the Senate contest “the most important race in the United States of America,” as he stumped for Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee.
Mr. Trump’s sinking approval ratings have made the president and, by extension, Mr. Vance a liability for some battleground candidates, as they seek to energize the party’s base voters. When Mr. Vance held a rally in Iowa last month, Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for Senate, didn’t attend, citing scheduling conflicts.
Republican “candidates in swing seats want his voters, not necessarily his baggage,” said Matt Klink, a Republican strategist in California, speaking of Mr. Trump.
Given the trajectory of Trump’s approval ratings—and the fact that he’s likely to get even more petulant with a Democratic Congress—this is unlikely to get better. Still, he seems to be the odds-on favorite to represent the MAGA wing of the party.
Mr. Cruz, who has clashed publicly with Mr. Vance, has raised money and campaigned in his home state of Texas for Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in a tight contest, and visited Iowa, which has been an early Republican nominating state, among other places.
I can scarcely imagine a world in which the most despised man in the U.S. Senate wins the Republican nomination.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a frequent target in Democrats’ campaign attacks, has also campaigned for Republicans this cycle in Iowa and Kentucky, a departure from past Pentagon officials who have stayed out of politics.
Hegseth looks a lot like a President. (Whether Trump has assessed his backside is unknown at this juncture.) Losing a war tends not to be the route to the White House, though.
