There continues to be a lot of overwrought reaction to the impact of the assassination attempt on the election, including a lot of usually sober voices who think it further cements Trump’s lead. I’m highly skeptical of that, although I do agree that his surprisingly gritty response has earned in the moment will help in the short term.
Chris Cilliza (“What the Trump assassination attempt means for 2024“) has a reasonable take in that direction:
This line — from his standard stump speech — now takes on much greater meaning: “In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way.”
That Trump was shot would be enough to drive that narrative. That he got back on his feet, with blood running down his face, and threw a raised fist skyward while yelling “fight, fight, fight” will turn him into an icon for many Republicans.
And the picture at the top of this piece — taken by the Associated Press’ Evan Vucci — instantly becomes the defining image of the 2024 campaign. It is already the cover of Time magazine.
That photo — and the defiance in the face of an attempt on his life it shows — will be, for many Trump voters, the proof that he must be the next president of the United States.
[…]
I struggle to see how any partisan Democrat will change his or her mind about Trump in the wake of the shooting. But, independents and low information voters? They will absolutely hear about this attack. Could it make them more sympathetic to Trump? Make them more likely to see him as a truth-to-power figure (if they are trying this hard to keep him from being president, they must really think he is a threat to the status quo)?
Again, I think it’s too early to know. People are still processing this.
But I will say that, 24 hours ago, it was virtually impossible for me to imagine Trump as a sympathetic figure in the eyes of persuadable voters. And now….well I can see it.
Others are waaaay over the top.
NYT’s Shawn McCreesh (“Amid the Mayhem, Trump Pumped His Fist and Revealed His Instincts“):
It’s difficult to imagine a moment that more fully epitomizes Mr. Trump’s visceral connection with his supporters, and his mastery of the modern media age.
Mr. Trump would not leave the stage without signaling to his fans that he was OK — even as some were still wailing in fear. And he did not just wave or nod, he raised his fist in defiance above his bloodied face — making an image history will not forget.
He has always been highly conscious of how he looks in big moments, practicing his Clint Eastwood squint and preparing for his mean mug-shot grimace. But there was no time to prepare for this.
This was instinct.
Axios’ Zachary Basu (“Trump’s martyr moment: Assassination attempt transforms campaign“):
On the eve of a Republican National Convention built on themes of victimhood and political persecution, Trump came inches — literally — from martyrdom. Republicans couldn’t ask for more of a contrast, with President Biden spending the last two weeks in a standoff with Democrats who fear he is too feeble to campaign effectively. Trump, who said on Truth Social that he felt the bullet “ripping through” his skin, will be welcomed in Milwaukee on Monday as a hero, a fighter — even a messiah to elements of his evangelical base.
The images from the shooting, plastered on front pages around the world Sunday morning, became iconic in real time. With blood dripping down from his right ear, Trump was captured by photographers pumping a defiant fist to shell-shocked supporters as he was swarmed by Secret Service agents. “Fight…fight…fight!” the indignant former president appeared to shout as he was shuttled away from the crime scene, where two people, including the shooter, were left dead. [stupid formatting removed]
Even POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin (“Trump’s Raised Fist Will Make History — And Define His Candidacy“):
It may have been jarring in the moment, but there was a reason so many Republicans thought to quickly post the photos of a blood-streaked Trump: They will prove politically potent.
In campaigns, perception can quickly harden into reality and symbolism is often more significant than substance. The pictures and film of Trump rallying the crowd will likely be the enduring image of this election and perhaps his entire political career.
Even before President Biden’s catastrophic debate last month, Trump had run on a platform of strength, portraying himself as a politically muscular figure against a weak and aging incumbent president. Next week’s Republican nominating convention will deliver Trump a hero’s welcome and an audience to match, befitting a party leader who had a brush with death.
“The raised fist will become the iconic symbol of the convention,” predicted longtime GOP strategist Mike Murphy.
Convention planners had already successive evening themes dedicated to making America “safe” and “strong” again, sessions that will, along with Trump’s expected cameo with his new running mate the opening night, be vivified with new meaning after the shooting.
It’s not just the pundits.
NBC News (“Democrats fret about the political fallout from the Trump rally shooting“):
At a time when President Joe Biden has been struggling to shore up support with fellow Democrats following a miserable June debate performance and shaky cleanup effort, some professional Democratic political operatives said Saturday’s shooting will end up sealing the incumbent’s electoral fate.
“We’re so beyond f—ed,” one longtime Democratic insider said, noting that the image of Trump thrusting his fist in the air, with blood dramatically smeared across his face, will be indelible.
“The presidential contest ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to give a candid assessment of his own party’s standing less than four months before the election.
“Now it’s time to focus on keeping the Senate and trying to pick up the House,” he said. “The only positive thing to come out of last night for Democrats is we are no longer talking about Joe Biden’s age today.”
[…]
One Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill said that the physical targeting of Trump robs Biden of his main argument against the former president. Biden, the strategist pointed out, has tried to convince voters that Trump is so extreme that he presents a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said, after a gunman tried to kill the presumptive nominee of one of the two major parties. The bullet that struck Trump “probably saved Biden’s nomination” by freezing Democratic calls for him to step aside and “doomed his re-election.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed that sentiment.
“I’m very concerned that the net effect of the Republican convention will be neutralizing the core democracy critique of Trump — a felon who fomented a violent insurrection, tried to block the peaceful transfer of power, and said the Constitution may need to be terminated,” he said.
To be sure, not everyone is freaking out.
A Democratic operative with experience as a senior presidential campaign adviser predicted there would be a “slight immediate bump” for Trump with certain demographic groups. “But fundamentally, I think the race stays where it has always been. And we’ve got many moons still to go, as crazy as that seems.”
The operative said it is “so bizarre” that “many people on my side are firmly in the camp of [Biden] can’t win,” describing that view as a “vibes analysis” without a “rational basis.”
TPM’s Josh Marshall is characteristically sober:
I’m seeing a lot of people acting like the shooting over the weekend basically ends the election. That is silly. We simply do not know what if any effect this will have on the November vote. My own sense is that there’s a decent chance that the Trump campaign’s and GOP’s response to the attempt will backfire and eventually hurt him. After about 24 hours of leaks predicting some totally improbable “new Trump” national unity convention, the first signs this morning are more like Trump Unbound, with new demands that every case against him be dropped and Jean Carroll recant her jury-confirmed rape allegation. The truth is we have no idea and we shouldn’t make assumptions based on our fears.
Ditto Dan Drezner:
Anyone claiming that this is it, the 2024 presidential election is over because “the assassination attempt will turbocharge the persecution narrative Trump has placed at the center of his campaign” should not be allowed to write any more U.S. coverage without first taking at least three semesters of undergraduate American politics courses. Remember when Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies? That was 45 days ago. In the next week we will learn who Trump chose as his vice presidential nominee. More debates about Biden’s age will rage on. Maybe this proves to be an inflection point, but it seems far more likely it’s a blip.
Could a more normal presidential candidate with Trump’s charisma and flair for the dramatic use this to change the narrative? Quite possibly. But he lacks the humility and discipline to pull that off. At least since entering politics in earnest nine years ago, his entire persona has been built around sneering and contempt.
