Thoughts on Outcomes
A bad night for Trump.
James is right to note in the headline of his piece that Democrats won where they were, in the main, expected to win. This was especially true in NYC and VA. There had been some speculation that NJ was going to be competitive, and yet a pattern was broken in terms of the number of consecutive governors of the same party winning the office of governor in that state.
These were a limited number of contests in a limited number of locations, almost all of which were in Democratic environments (except GA, see below). A lot of what happened yesterday fits known and expected patterns as a general matter. As I noted in my previous post, yesterday was a good sign for our general democracy, and this will energize Democrats, but I would caution against drawing overbroad conclusions.
Still, I think that margins of victory in the state-level races in particular are important, as are some of the non-topline results. As with every post-presidential election, at least part of what is going on is a signal about the occupant in the White House, and yesterday was bad for Donald J. Trump.
To wit:
Georgia
Via the NYT: In an Upset, Democrats Oust Two Republicans on Georgia’s Utility Board. This is a stunning result. Yes, it is an off-term election to two relatively obscure offices, but these were both state-wide contests, and the Republicans were destroyed. This can rightly be seen as frustration over energy costs and an anti-Trump vote. As I continually noted about 2024, elections tend to be referenda on the incumbent party, and poor economic conditions redound negatively to that party.
These outcomes are a signal of discontent.
Pennsylvania
Via NBC News: Pennsylvania voters retain three state Supreme Court justices, preserving Democrats’ 5-2 majority. I would note: judges tend to win retention elections, so the results themselves are not especially surprising. But as with all things political these days, these were not typical retention elections.
In one TV ad, the trio of judges appeared together to tell voters “we protected access to abortion. And your right to vote. Even when the powerful came after it.”
Prominent Democrats backed the incumbent justices, who appeared on the ballot without any party designation. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who faces re-election next year and is viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, appeared in an ad on the justices’ behalf. And former President Barack Obama posted on social media urging Pennsylvanians to vote “yes” on retention.
President Donald Trump also weighed in at the last minute, urging Pennsylvanians to “Vote ‘NO, NO, NO’ on Liberal Justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht” in a Truth Social post on Sunday night.
Virginia
The executive levels are important, the AG race being key, given that having a Democrat in that role is a block against any attempted electoral manipulation by the Trump administration in 2026.
But I would highlight the results for the state legislature. Not only does this position Virginia to be a player in the redistricting wars, but it is a clear repudiation of the Republican Party (who knew an attack on the federal workforce might have political consequences?).
Via The Virginia Mercury: Blue wave rebuilds the House: Democrats soar to at least 64 seats in Virginia.
This was a stunning pickup of seats.
Other Links
Via the AP: Tuesday’s races were a quiet rebuke of Trump for many voters, AP Voter Poll finds. BTW: weird headline for the graph, even if it is accurate, but the numbers are pretty stark.
Via CBS News: Here’s what CBS News exit polls told us about the 2025 elections.
Via CNN: CNN exit polls: Voters’ dissatisfaction with Trump helped fuel Democratic wins in key races. Note the economy column on the right.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
You know it was a bad night for El Taco, and that he knows it, because he’s Xitting at full volume it wasn’t his fault.
@Kathy: I feel like the question we should be asking Republican pols is “Why do you take this kind of crap from Trump? Where’s your self-respect?”
While I agree it was an off year election so the results arent as meaningful as we would like, the sub analysis stuff will be interesting when it comes in. Trump won a large percentage of the Latino vote, especially among males as he tapped into the “I got mine” group. Will be interesting to see if this shifts as they see how people are being treated and how it feels to be randomly stopped on the street and asked to prove you are an American. Overall, I think the issue of prices still increasing and likely to keep doing so is key.
Steve
There’s multiple Republican observers/commenters specifically flagging these Georgia results today as an especially ominous concern for them. Apparently, Democrats usually wouldn’t have won such races even despite midterm backlash, especially at these eye-popping margins. I.e., the relative obscurity of these races is why Republicans should’ve have carried them still, per usual.
Dems haven’t been able to win statewide seats in Georgia like this for two decades, even in blue wave years. So it’s another sign that Dem overperformance yesterday was atypical — maybe signaling deeper anti-Trump hostility, a more motivated Dem base than expected, and/or a more unraveled Trump GOP voter coalition.
“He promised to lower prices on day one” started out as a meme/joke on Day 2. But after all that’s happened since, that simple meme is actually a pretty elegant and potent message.
Of course, Trump and Republicans have helped with their cartoonishly villainous “Let Them Eat Cake” act, either ignoring inflation or making it worse: tariffs and trade wars, Epstein files cover ups, mass firings, gold ballrooms, $50+ billion to bailout Argentina, bombing fisherman, Qatari bribe planes, pro-Hitler leaked chats, Gatsby parties, and hostility to healthcare and food aid.
Democratic candidates could not have asked for a better foil.
@Jay L. Gischer:
Hard to keep any when they are so far into the orange ass’s ass.
Trump is not delivering on the economy and the prices, and he and his backers are also acting as if they’re going to make it worse. You have AI, the attack on government services, and this general sense that college-educated people who aren’t Trumpies are the enemy who need to be put down.
Meanwhile, the most blatant corruption happens every day in plain sight within the administration. Even the authoritarian regimes occasionally purge the worst offenders, but they’re having trouble with Holocaust denialists, let alone some scumbag who takes a 50K bribe and still is allowed to be head of the mall Gestapo.
I don’t know much this changes his base’s view on him. It looks like the non-white voters who went to him in 2024 are not stuck there, at least the ones in NJ and NYC. But he’s not delivering in any sort of Trumpy way, unless you’re into cheering on ICE kidnappings of vicious criminals dropping off their kids before they go to work.
I’ve paid some attention to the Georgia PSC, but only because they were deeply involved in the Vogtle 3 and 4 nuclear debacle. Several years ago now, they went against their staff’s recommendation to abandon that project. Many billions of dollars later, and years behind schedule, Vogtle 3 and 4 are producing electricity. It is the most expensive electricity in Georgia Power’s portfolio by a wide margin.
Separately, they have approved six Georgia Power rate hikes in the last three years. They have left room for additional hikes to cover fossil fuel costs and the damage from Hurricane Helene. They have apparently spiked a number of renewable energy proposals.
Next year will be even more interesting. Two more of the six PSC seats are up for election.
Parody or factual? You decide: (from FB)
@Rob1:
It’s hard to say.
But, is there a difference?
@Rob1: Parody. He would not have spelled Mandami’s name correctly.
@Joe:
Except it’s Mamdani, not Mandami
I get it wrong all the time, too. I often search the web to make sure.
@Kathy: The classic example came shortly after the 2008 election, when one newspaper spelled Blagojevich perfectly, but referred to the newly elected president as “Burka Abeam.”
Last night was a clear validation of Democratic goals – and a complete repudiation of the Republican ethnostate dream.
It’s long past time to drop the notion that any Republican win of 0.2% is an eternal mandate and every Democratic win by double digits is some bizarre un-repeatable coincidence.
“And now Republicans must govern by moderating their position towards the center where the Democrats are” – said no pundit ever.
@Rob1:
I wondered if this was posted by Trump himself versus a staffer mimicking the Trump style. But it makes so little sense that—nevermind, it doesn’t matter considering there are only a handful of competent individuals in the administration, and I doubt any would be in a position that posts to social media for their boss.
-NYC isn’t a state.
-NJ Governor is a Dem, so it did not turn blue.
As of the morning of Election Day:
-NJ is the only one of the highly discussed races that has both a Democratic trifecta and triplex (Gov., AG, and SOS).
-Virginia has a Dem majority in both chambers, but a GOP triplex.
-Georgia is a GOP trifecta and triplex.
Yeah, I know. It isn’t about what actually is for the Cohn-tutored Trump. But still. Dude can’t even make the bullshit match fact in a superficial way.