Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, April 30, 2026
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21 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
I know it’s boring but…
Iran war has cost $25 billion so far, Pentagon official says
If I recall correctly, the value of munitions is fixed at contract cost at the time of purchase. On a replacement cost basis, the amount will be much higher. And that is at production cost without the R&D costs amortized into the price.
In wake of the Supreme Court VRA ruling, I have a question for the OTB hive mind.
How much of an approximation is income or class as a substitute for race in Congressional boundaries? What is the voting Venn diagram of race and income?
Are these the right questions?
I can’t be the only one who has asked this.
The misogyny is off the charts with this crew. These women were selected *BY THEIR PEERS*:
Trump administration rejects women picked for soybean board, appoints men instead
What’s going on with Ukraine? Here’s the lastest for the Institute for the Study of War:
Also:
Hegseth Says Pentagon Released $400M in Ukraine Aid After Lawmaker Pressure
Hegseth and company need constant attention from Congress.
Interesting. Is this part of a growing anti-age trend? Personally, I’m all for the plus 70 crowd to move off the stage. Time for us baby boomers to spend our children’s inheritance.
Mills drops out of Maine Senate race, setting up Platner to face Collins
@Scott: Yes, a big part of it is age. But she was also viewed as a potential to be just a Democratic version of Sen. Collins. And, she just vetoed legislation that would have blocked AI data centers, which struck me as a very strange move in Maine.
@Scott:
Yeas, but those $25 billion have cost the global economy hundreds of billions. It will be hard to top that return on investment.
@Scott:
@Jen:
Each newer poll has been good news for Platner, Mills could see the writing on the wall and recognized her only chance would have been to go scorched earth on him. That would have handed November to Collins. Mills wasn’t only a Collins doppelganger, but seen as no different than Schumer and all the other institutionalist Dems that the party’s voters are tired of.
We roll our eyes at Collins, but it is easy to underestimate the support she has in Maine. She has a tremendous reputation for constituent services and is very attentive to the desires of Maine industries. Plus she has a solid reputation among New England senators in cooperating on legislation that benefits the region.
She will be tough to beat, but Platner will benefit with the out with the old desire among the electorate. It will be interesting to see how Platner responds to becoming the Dem candidate.
There are a few here who fear that Platner will be another Fetterman, a risk that I won’t dismiss, but Platner’s coronation is a direct result of the Maine Dem party and Senate Dem candidate recruitment to get their act together.
Mills was late in announcing her candidacy and many believed she wasn’t interested and was persuaded to run. The fact that she barely campaigned after she announced lent truth to that accusation. The shame for Dem institutionalists and moderates, is that there already a very attractive candidate in the race, Dan Kleban, who owns the Maine Beer Company. Kleban is 40-something, Dem mainstream on social and most issues and certainly lacked the baggage that Platner has.
When Mills reluctantly announced, Kleban withdrew and endorsed her.
@Scott:
You don’t spend much time with Zoomers and Xers huh? Lol
@Sleeping Dog: Agreed on all counts.
It will be interesting to see what choices are made by the NRSC. Holding this seat is a target, but my hunch is that if they go too hard at Platner, they will end up hurting Collins. She has deep support, but it feels like people everywhere are tiring of seeing 70 and ups on the ballot.
@Scott:
Interesting question, but I think moot. They’re using voting records as a proxy for race. It actually works better for their purposes, as denying representation to ethnic minorities is a nice, but denying it to Dems is even better. And the Supremes, in their infinite wisdom, have explicitly declared partisan gerrymandering legal.
It’s being reported that my Gov DeUseless’ staff drew up the new map adopted yesterday for FL which, on its face, takes a 56-43 2024 prez advantage from a 20-8 advantage in congress to 24-4. I doubt his staff did it, as opposed to ALEC or some other evil consultancy. They have very sophisticated big data software for maximizing the gerrymander. All it takes is shamelessness and a corrupt SCOTUS.
Looking out McDonald’s window I see Huck’s and Circle K have both increased unleaded regular overnight by 30¢/gal to $4.799. GasBuddy shows $4.899/gal at one outlet in my zip code (62901).
McDonald’s Senior Coffee is still 99¢ +tax, including free refills and my Panera all U can drink coffee, tea, soda, et al. remains at $16.75/mo tax included through Aug. 28, 2026. I can still drown myself in mud for about 55¢ a day and the internet connection is free!
Does anyone know how much fuel the President’s motorcade uses when it transports this bloated sack of protoplasm from point A to point B? It’s bad enough that I have to pay more for gasoline (on a fixed income) for myself, I pay more for his rides too!
I hear that the jet fuel used on Air Force One that the taxpayers pay for has also gone up.
A new 7 Brew drive through coffee stand will open May 4 in Sleepytown. It is located a stones throw from Starbucks to the west and a short walk (across 6 lanes of traffic) from Panera to the east. I can see the place from my usual perch at Panera. The building is a former
Long John Silver’s. Someone has spent a lot of money to renovate the outside. Since there is no indoor seating I’ll never know what was done inside.
In case you were having a good morning, here’s a gift link to a “Guest Essay” in NYT, Silicon Valley is Bracing for a Permanent Underclass. The opening line sets the tone, “Most people I know in the A.I. industry think the median person is screwed, and they have no idea what to do about it.” The top comment is, “As a longtime techie, I’ll say this: I don’t trust the people running these firms to do the right thing as far as I can throw them.” One person cited expects half of white collar jobs to disappear by 2030.
In my quiet retired life in the Free State ™ of FL I’m not much exposed to the impacts of AI. Yet. But it sure looks like there’s a huge wave coming, and fast.
@Jen:
Voters can get tired of politicians that they like and respect. We have been in a period that’s moto is “time for a change” and I think Collins will fall because of it.
Thinking about Maine politics and senators in particular, Angus King came to mind. This is someone who has had at least 2 terms, but I believe is in his third and has no accomplishments. He’s so invisible, I can’t remember any of his campaigns after his first senate. He has benefitted by running as a independent and garnering the, “none of the above” vote. But he certainly is a charectature of a Mainer.
@gVOR10:
So, if the broligarchs won’t even be able to hide behind the “job creators” label, what will be the reason not to tax them heavily?
Hell, would there be any reason to keep them around at all?
@Kathy: Broligarch does seem like a job an AI could easily take over. No empathy, morality, relatability or other human qualities required.
@gVOR10:
I saw a video on Youtube months ago, which claimed lower wage white collar workers were too cheap to replace with AI, but several executive positions up to CEO were expensive enough to be worth replacing.
Me, I say this shows how underpaid wage workers are, and how overpaid executives are.
Paul Krugman’s daily email today notes Brent crude has hit $120/barrel and quotes a new meme to go along with TACO. On Wall Street, TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out — has abruptly been replaced as a favorite meme by NACHO — Not a Chance Hormuz Opens. As a result, oil futures have soared.
At first this sounds impressive:
Then later there’s this:
That’s really significant. It doesn’t rise to the level of “It only works with spherical patients in a vacuum,” but it comes close.
Consider: how do you enter the data so the LLM can read it? How long does that take? Do you want your doctor to take time to enter your symptoms and vitals into a prompt while you’re lying there on a gurney in the ER?
@gVOR10: Something to keep in mind is that a lot of the people who say with great confidence that half of white collar jobs will be replaced with AI are usually people who would either:
A) like people to invest in their AI company
Or
B) like workers to be scared and accept lower wages.
Meanwhile, AI costs a metric fuckton to run and every AI company is operating at a huge loss and the quality sucks.