Outside the Beltway

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1. charontwo says:
   Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 06:22

   Something I just came across over at BJ, re: the Kerch Bridge:

   “RBC Ukraine”

   A series of earthquakes near Crimea is having a critical impact on the Crimean Bridge, which Russia built in violation of construction standards. The seismic activity is creating a cumulative effect that could ultimately destroy the structure, according to seismologist Dmytro Hryn of the S.I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

   Key points:

   Seismic threat: A series of earthquakes near Crimea, including those recorded on June 22-24, is critically weakening the Crimean Bridge, which was built in violation of safety standards.

   Political construction project: Russia deliberately lowered the official seismic hazard rating for the area to justify building the bridge on highly unstable soil with its own fault system.

   “100-year cycle”: Due to the cyclical nature of earthquakes in the region, similar to the devastating 1927 event, forecasts of a powerful earthquake occurring by 2027 remain relevant.

   Irreversible consequences: Seismic activity has a cumulative effect that makes the bridge’s destruction inevitable, as the structure will continue to deteriorate even without external attacks.

   Built in violation of standards in a seismically active zone

   The scientist stresses that constructing the bridge in this area contradicted safety standards from the very beginning, as the area between the Kerch and Taman peninsulas is characterized by highly unstable soils and its own fault system.

   “The Russians deliberately changed state construction regulations and lowered the seismic rating of the area to justify building in a seismically hazardous zone. The soil conditions there are extremely poor, and there is a separate fault system between the Kerch and Taman peninsulas. This construction project was a political decision,” he explained.

   Earthquakes are critically weakening the bridge

   According to Hryn, earthquakes that regularly occur in the region, including the series of tremors recorded on June 22-24, have long-term negative consequences for the bridge. He noted that the impact of tremors is not immediate but irreversible.

   Such earthquakes produce a cumulative effect that gradually weakens both the bridge’s structure and the soil beneath its supports.

   The processes occurring inside the structure due to constant seismic stress are irreversible.

   “Irreversible processes are taking place within this bridge. Ukrainian earthquakes will finish it off, even without any external impact of our missiles,” the expert concluded.

   On June 22, six earthquakes were recorded in Crimea throughout the day, with the strongest reaching a magnitude of 4.5. New tremors were also detected on the peninsula on June 24.

   In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, seismologist Dmytro Hryn explained that a system of geological faults near Crimea periodically becomes active. There is currently a serious risk that a major earthquake could occur by 2027, comparable to the event that struck the region 100 years ago. That earthquake reached an intensity of 9 points and destroyed about 70% of the buildings in Yalta.

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