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Source: Official White House Photo

Trump Approval in the 30s in Recent Polling

Who could have predicted that starting a pointless war in the Middle East would raise gas prices?

Steven L. Taylor
17

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The Hill reports the latest: Trump approval falls to all-time low in Reuters/Ipsos poll.

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s approval rating was sitting at 32 percent, the lowest of his second term and, according to Reuters, a record low for his entire political life. 

Last week, a Fox News poll measured his approval at 39%

And a NYT/Sienna poll put it at 37% in the same time-frame as the Fox News poll:

Meanwhile, here are some of the negative stories that I am sure are the kind that led to Trump banning outlets from the White House.

Via Politico: Republicans were bullish about the Senate. Now they’re playing defense in red states.

In the Senate, Republicans are racing to shore up Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted as the Midwest struggles under the weight of Trump’s tariffs and high diesel prices. Trump and Vice President JD Vance are both expected to travel to the state before the midterms to boost Husted, according to four people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-public plans.

GOP leaders are also trying to keep a handle on contests in Iowa and Kansas — and they’ve quietly begun deprioritizing Georgia and even North Carolina, which a growing number of Republicans are privately bracing for Democrats to flip.

“We need to stop the contagion,” said one senior GOP official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape.

“The map is hilariously big right now,” said one national Republican pollster.

[…]

Republicans have adjusted their Senate map expectations: They’re still bullish about Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. They’re not as optimistic about North Carolina — which Trump won in 2024 — but they are hoping to force Democrats to spend more there.

Republicans are more concerned about Alaska and Texas. And their worries about Ohio have escalated amid soaring diesel prices and backlash to tariffs — challenges they’re also confronting in Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Kansas.

Also via the dreaded Politico: Republicans’ Cash Blitz Meets a $5-Gas Election and the equally terrible MSNOW: ‘We’re gonna get crushed’: Republicans privately say they’re doomed in the midterms.

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17 responses to “Trump Approval in the 30s in Recent Polling”

  1. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    My rule when it comes to book and/or Hollywood deals is: it’s not real til I cash the check. I see dark clouds not silver linings. I don’t see Trump’s top line number collapsing, I’m still seeing a durable 60/40 number.

    However, the intensity number is pretty bad for Trump. Really bad. Dems will walk barefoot over broken glass to vote; Republicans will do their ‘duty.’ Do Iowa voters, for example, love Ashley Hinson more than Democrats and Independents hate Trump? I doubt it.

    (I concede to Steven that Trump’s looney convention did absolutely nothing to fire up the MAGAts. Happy to be wrong.)

    1
    1. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
      Steven L. Taylor

      @Michael Reynolds

      (I concede to Steven that Trump’s looney convention did absolutely nothing to fire up the MAGAts. Happy to be wrong.)

      I’ll take the win while I can!

  2. Daryl Avatar
    Daryl

    Fake news.
    Fake polls.
    Just ask Fatso.

    2
  3. Charley in Cleveland Avatar
    Charley in Cleveland

    Assuming they are not all millionaires, you have to wonder if the 21% who say they strongly approve of the job Trump is doing as president have gone food shopping or bought gasoline recently. Trump screeched endlessly about inflation under Biden, and now it is not just worse, it is much worse as a direct result of Trump’s illegal war and illegal tariffs. But the swells got a tax break, Elon neutered the IRS’s ability to track down tax cheats, and Bobby Jr. has made measles great again. Apparently that is all excellent news for the hardcore 21%.

    1. James Joyner Avatar
      James Joyner

      @Charley in Cleveland: Inflation’s worse than it was in 2024, but the same as in 2023 and much better than 2021 or 2022.

      1. Kathy Avatar
        Kathy

        Yes, but inflation is cumulative. 4% over the massive increases between 2021-2023 is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.

        1
      2. Daryl Avatar
        Daryl

        Of course you are well aware that inflation under Biden was due to events outside his control and that his team did a yeomans job of engineering a soft landing, of preventing a crash.
        Trump is directly responsible for today’s inflation and we have no idea how this ends.
        Just sayin’

        3
        1. gVOR10 Avatar
          gVOR10

          We are. Republicans, voters generally, and the supposedly liberal MSM, not so much. Last night Maddow was showing the Economist cover from 2024 about the U. S. economy being the envy of the world. If Dimbulb had had the sense to just sit on his hands in the Oval Office he’d be credited with an economic miracle right now.

          2
  4. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    29%

    https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

    Trump Overall Job Approval at 29%
    Trump Approval on Handling the Economy at 26%

    A total of 29% of Americans say they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president and 68% say they disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. In August, 30% of Americans approved of the way Trump was handling his job and 66% disapproved.

    When it comes to Trump’s handling of the economy, 26% of Americans approve and 71% disapprove. In August, 28% of Americans approved of the way Trump was handling the economy and 69% disapproved.

    2
    1. Kylopod Avatar
      Kylopod

      I came here to post this.

      I’ve been watching for a long time whether Trump would ever reach the 20s. This is the first time I’m aware of that it’s ever happened according to any pollster, in either term. In Gallup’s historical approval polls going back to Truman (which they unfortunately ended earlier this year), just five presidents have reached the 20s at any point: Truman, Nixon, Carter, and both Bushes. (The first Bush was the most marginal–it dipped to 29% exactly once, during the summer of 1992.) The fact that Trump never seemed to go that low was taken to be a sign of his high floor, historically speaking. If that floor ever existed, he’s crashing through it.

      What’s especially notable is that so far there hasn’t been any rebound in his ratings this year; it’s been on a pretty steady descent since about May 2025.

    2. CSK Avatar
      CSK

      Indeed. I mentioned this yesterday. I believe it.

  5. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    Above:
    Reuters/IPSOS 32
    FOX 39
    NYT/Sienna 37
    Glancing at natesilver.net I see recent polls with approval running from 45 (Rasmussen) to 32 (U Mass). And yet each of these likely claim a margin of error around +/- 3. It would seem that:
    – The raw number, breathlessly reported by the MSM, is basically meaningless.
    – Trend, averaged or within a single poll, means something.
    – Statistical margin of error is small compared to other sources of error and basically meaningless.
    – Silver’s average is 38.5% approval. This is 11 points over the famous Crazification Factor. Given the last almost two years, how is that possible?

    1. Kathy Avatar
      Kathy

      Given the last almost two years, how is that possible?

      Pre-2016 campaign, the GQP, may it rest in peace, favored many positions that were about 180 degrees apart from El Taco’s. At the time I noted the only thing that seem to unite them in his favor was bigotry. He had made it respectable by spouting it without shame or apology.

      I think this answers the question today as well.

      1. Eugene Avatar
        Eugene

        To riff off Carole King: “On the whole, it was a very good year for the undertaker.” In our case, substitute “rich people” and rich-adjacent. I was scratching my head about Trump at my annual meeting with my investment advisor and the young woman doing the presenting hurried to remind me that crazy as he is Trump’s BBB was the engine of a significant part of my portfolio’s growth the past year. She and people like her are probably where the surplus %-age is coming from.

  6. al Ameda Avatar
    al Ameda

    What stands out for me is:

    59% – Net disapproval
    41% – Net approval

    That’s it. He’s slightly above his hardcore MAGA base, which guess is about 33%. Thus far Congressional Republicans have been content to wait this polling out for the midterms. This is why Republicans will be running on communism and LGTBQ for the stretch frun.

  7. Eugene Avatar
    Eugene

    Memo
    From: DJT
    To: JD (BH) V
    Re: Midwest campaign tour
    Remember your lines: The effects of the fuel supply disruptions and tariffs are a small price to pay for prosperity our MY POLICIES are bringing TO THE REST of America and for the SECURITY a nukulure-free IRAN will bring us.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter. DJT

    1. gVOR08 Avatar
      gVOR08

      nukulure

      I recall seeing W say, “ Something, something nuklee… and stop with his deer in the headlights look. You could almost hear the gears grinding, “Rove said not to pronounce that right. What was I supposed to say? Oh yeah.” “Nook uhh lur!”

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