Trump-o-Nomics
Or, more accurately, Trump-o-Nonsense
Increasingly the Republican nominee for president is making absurd promises that make little to no sense, and are the kinds of utterly impossible-to-deliver promises that are lies for all practical purposes. A lot of it started with no taxes on tips (which I know that Harris also is onboard with), but goes well beyond that to things that are either impossibly outside his control, won’t work as promised, or both.
The one I saw this morning is this:
This is nonsense on so many levels, not the least of which being that the president has no power to unilaterally set credit card interest rates.
Then there is this gem of economic galaxy brain assertions:
So…this is just wrong on a number of levels. First, placing a tariff on imported goods does not drive prices down.
Period.
Full stop.
The immediate effect of such a tariff is to increase the price of the imported good. It might, in fact, allow the seller of domestic goods to increase their prices as well, because they no longer are facing the competitive pressures generated by cheaper foreign products. Further, if you are buying, say, off-cycle imported fruit where there is no domestic competition in season (or just buying imported food items that do not have direct domestic competition) then all these tariffs do is raise the price of groceries.
Is he ignorant? Is he lying? Is he simply pandering? Why not all three?
Then there’s this (which I initially thought might be a parody):
Because, of course, the President of the United States sets insurance rates!
There there’s this from Fox Business: Trump promises to halt taxes on Social Security; cites ‘inflation nightmare’ for seniors.
“To help seniors on fixed incomes who are suffering the ravages of Comrade Kamala Harris’ inflation nightmare — I’m promising NO TAX on SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS!” he wrote on X.
Like the tips thing, federal code could be changed on this. But he would have to get it through Congress.
Bonus clips include, one of the guys who Trump wanted to put on the Fed complaining about interest rate cuts:
And JD Vance promising even deeper cuts while the current cut is booed.
So do we want rate cuts or not?
Look, I am well-versed in the fact that politicians make policy claims that they may not be able to pull off. Harris, to be fair, has proposed some ideas that clearly will have to go through Congress (and the odds of their success are slim). But promising tax credits for new homebuyers and for small-business start-ups are within the basic parameters of what the federal government can do. Presidents “immediately” cutting credit card interest rates aren’t. Nor can presidents cut insurance rates. And tariffs are taxes that increase prices to consumers. (Sure, some of this could go through Congress, but he is making dictator-style promises).
Moreover, for a guy who is accusing his opponent of being a socialist, if not a Marxist, Trump isn’t exactly talking like a free market guy. All of his suggestions are direct interference in the marketplace, to include price-fixing (in terms of the credit card and insurance promises). Even if one is going to judge all of these are proposals, one should consider the philosophy that is being espoused. He is engaging in the crudest of populist economics: just make wild promises in hope of getting support.
There is nothing coherent in any of this. And, I would note, concerns about government interference in the economy, as well as any thoughts to the deficit, are clearly out the window.
MAGA don’t care.
That anyone is supporting these ideas, thinking they could even be done, demonstrates a massive failure on the part of our education system.
The president does not have a say in credit card interest rates, and the result of this proposal–if it were ever to see the light of day–would be a MASSIVE constriction in the availability of credit to most Americans.
The grocery thing is so nonsensical that I have no words. I don’t know how TF grocery prices go down by taxing foreign imports?
On car insurance rates–again, stupid doesn’t even begin to touch this idea. First, insurance regulation is up to the states, and states have tight regulatory control over rates. Second, insurers have to PROVE they need rate increases, and part of the equation is the increase in claims, and the increase in the cost to repair. The president has no control over either of these factors, and suggesting that he even has the capability to do something about it is crazy–and would have all kinds of messy consequences.
This is not a serious person. He’s throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks here, and it’s insane.
Yes, he seems desperate to buy votes, basically. He’s always been a BSer, so he’s just taking it to new ridiculous levels.
I haven’t followed the media reporting on any of this, but hopefully they are pointing out how foolish it is. As always, the problem is that the rightwing media (Fox, etc.) and enablers will spin it or, at best, ignore it, so no minds will be changed.
@Jen:
His “ideas” would help traffic though. As you say credit would get very restricted, and insurance would only be available to the very best drivers. And of course people would have less money available to start with once he raised food prices in an effort to lower them so paying cash for a car is out. Should really slow down the number of new cars on the road.
@Jen:
The MAGAs think his plan is brilliant.
This smells desperate. It feels like he thinks he’s losing and needs to do something to get attention back on him. Something BIG, something that makes people talk about him!
Steven, you also missed Trump announcing that he would bring back the Federal SALT deduction… Which he took away during the first administration to get back at Blue states.
Though it’s entirely possible he doesn’t remember doing that.
He was against it before he was for it.
You don’t understand the dictator mind set:
You lower the price of food, and the insurance rates, and credit card rates, and any other nonsensical, asinine whim the Weirdo has, or else you’ll be arrested, beaten, and imprisoned by his goons. Unless you’re too important to remove, in which case it will be your family who gets arrested and beaten.
It may not start out this way, but that’s how it will become in time.
Your observations on trump’s proposals are correct. Bad economics and dim chances of enactment.
However, your outrage is so selective it renders you an unserious commentator. Your minor caveats re: Harris just highlight your rank hypocrisy. (And media’s unquestioning slobbering over Harris’ as well). Free beer economics and politics has been the specialty of the democrat party for as long as I can remember. Real pros.
The single most important acts that would deal with cost of living issues are: 1) reduce energy costs and 2) slow down government spending, which is ultimately monetized. In a modern economy energy intensity is so great it filters through the entire system – food (grain drying; fertilizer production), transportation, data centers, fabrication/mining/refining and so on. Blathering on about solar and wind doesn’t help. Trump’s energy policy will. And last time I looked, Florida isn’t half under water as predicted, but people’s food bills are mountainous. And on spending, Kamala “The Deciding Vote on Spending” Harris points her finger at Trump for opposing yet another bloated spending bill. You just can’t make this crap up if you tried.
I looked, Florida isn’t half under water as predicted,This is PG SLOT
When he gets to where he promises everyone 2 free ponies I may have to consider voting for him. (Ordinarily one free pony might be enough but my twin 4 year old granddaughters each need one.)
Steve
@angelOOk: Some sort of spam, I’d recommend against clicking the link
@Jack:
Imagine still believing that Trump will do anything in office besides cut taxes for billionaires and fail miserablly, like he did the first time. Trump was already president for 4 years. Did he slow government spending? No.
Meanwhile, the Biden-Harris administration:
Democrats get things done. It’s conservatives who do nothing but blather on and make extravagant promises they never keep. Like their constant immigration fearmongering: the right passed zilch to address immigration whrn they had total contron, then allowed Trump to block Biden’s bipartisan immigration bill that the border patrol endorsed.
Trump and the right are all hot air and empty talk. Mike Johnson can’t even get his own party to vote for his own spending bill as the country barrels towards a shutdown. Republicans keep proving they are intellectually bankrupt and cannot govern. Yet you still find gullible dupes believing Donald “Concepts of a Plan” Trump has a viable plan to address energy, spending, or cost of living.
There’s a sucker born every minute, and the lion’s share of them will be voting for Trump and Republicans this November.
@CSK:
They think?
@Jack: Hahahaha. Seriously? The *Republican* candidate for president is proposing a) interfering with the banking system by cutting credit card rates; b) interfering with state-run departments of insurance; c) some weird nonsense with imported food that has eff-all to do with the overall price of groceries; and d) Trump has suggested restoring the federal deductibility of state and local taxes WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERTURNING LEGISLATION HE SIGNED that capped such taxes…and your response to this gobbledygook is to “whatabout” it??
I’ve worked on campaigns, and when candidates start doing this, it’s a very very very bad sign. It’s the same death spiral you see in restaurants when they start having “theme nights” and offering brunch when they never have before. It’s a signal that they are trying to do ANYTHING to turn things around.
The internal polling must be grim if Trump is spending days off playing golf and then suggesting state-driven policies or overturning things *he signed* in an effort to try and find votes.
@DK:
I was using the word loosely. Very loosely.
Handy rule of thumb: Anyone who refers to the “democrat party” has the emotional and intellectual intelligence of a particularly nasty 11 year old boy and is best ignored.
@Jack:
Pot, meet kettle.
I mean, hey, you acknowledged that Trump’s policies are bad in a single sentence. And then directed a lot more outrage at Harris and, as usual, the author of the post.
So you claim this: “Trump’s energy policy will.” Can you link to anything that explains exactly what they are. Trump’s website is light on details:
As far as I can tell, current domestic oil production is at the same level it was when Trump left office: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production
Ditto Natural Gas production:
If you are serious about this concern, perhaps you can explaining to me how increasing tariffs and mass deportations are going to drop the price of food. Both of those are specifically Trump’s policies that have the most impact on this area.
Am am trying to figure out what percentage of food costs are tied to fuel costs. If you have a link that gets to that, please share it.
@Jen:
David Frum agrees with you.
Frequently finding myself in agreement with pundits like Frum and Bill Kristol is not something that I would have predicted even 10 years ago.
@Jack:
Why of course it’s selective, maybe you didn’t see the title (headline),
It’s a piece about Trump, it’s not a piece about Harris.
@Jack:
Free beer economics and politics has been the specialty of the democrat party for as long as I can remember. Real pros.
And yet:
But hey, Drew, don’t let mere facts interrupt your flow. You’re either ignorant or a liar. Your choice.
@Matt Bernius: I meant to include that, but forgot tot do so!
Jack/Drew is an M&A guy. Job creation ain’t his thing. Neither is economics generally. Or honesty.
All he cares about is hurting the people he wants hurt. That’s all MAGA is, a cult of personality devoted to kissing Dear Leader’s diaper and targeting victims. Hate-fueled and hypocritical, and both ignorant and stupid.
@Jack: Here’s what’s missing from your comment: any specifics on Harris that you would like to critique.
As such, I am not sure what your point is.
@MarkedMan: It is incredibly tiresome.
There is no reason to take any Trump ejaculations seriously, and we shouldn’t waste our time doing so. He had a four year term as President and three and a half years since then; has anyone seen a healthcare plan? The idea to decrease grocery prices by banning imports is beyond laughable. Yeah, we will help you at the grocery store by banning Canadian bacon! The rest of his social stuff is from Lee Atwater ways to say the N-word without actually saying it.
@Matt Bernius:
You are never going to get a link with that information from folks like Jack or the
Trump campaign for that matter.
All you can expect is what Jack already gave you – In a modern economy energy intensity is so great it filters through the entire system… That’s not data, it’s an article of faith. It is believed without evidence, like the existence of God, and it is a deeper truth by nature of its unprovability. It is the same kind of tenet as The stock market is rising (falling) now based on the high probability of Trump’s re-election (loss).
@Sleeping Dog:
Rest assured knowing that Frum and Kristol have come to you. They haven’t won you over to them. I find that comforting.
@Slugger:
Sadly, we must use some of our time pointing out how unserious Trump’s offerings are (as Steven does here), because they “sound” good and will be attractive to some people. His voters haven’t managed to learn he sold them on false goods last time (The Wall, returning factories, etc.) The country can’t afford to let him disappoint them again.
@Scott F.:
Actually my comfort is that the things we agree on today, were likely the same things we would have agreed on then, democracy, the rule of law, etc. I really want to return to the days when disagreements with conservatives revolved around policy and programs.
To your point that Kristol, Frum et.al. have come to me, one thing I’ve noticed, is since the emergence of the anti-Trump conservative and their rejection of R orthodoxy, they are far more open policies that would be ID’d as Democratic. Probably the reason is that anti-Trump ex R’s broadly fell into two camps, Neo-Cons and Main/Wall St conservatives that decidedly not of the religious right.
I love “Jack” whining about Democrats being the “free beer party” on the same day Trump announces that he’s going to reduce credit card interest to ten percent and slash the price of homeowners insurance.
On the other hand, maybe he’s got a point. Democrats are the free beer party while Republicans are the free meth party…
@Scott F.:
The MAGAs aren’t exactly disappointed. They’re angry and upset because the Deep State prevented Trump from accomplishing his goals.
It should be pointed out that free beer has been a key to success in Republicans winning elections. Starting with Reagan they decided it was a good idea to cut taxes and not cut spending. “Reagan taught us that deficits dont matter” they noted when it came to getting elected. So the GOP has cut taxes while not cutting spending. People love tax cuts. In effect, you get lots of services you dont pay for. They talk about cutting spending but dont do it. While I think the Dems are inclined to spend too much money, and they may underfund their spending programs sometimes, they have not engaged in the true free beer electoral policy of the GOP. They tax AND spend. That’s at least sustainable.
Steve
Asking whether Trump’s economic policy is coherent is laughable. All he cares to understand is what’s good for me right now, and even that’s suspect a surprising amount of the time. He has a prepubescent grasp of the world, and a toddler’s feeling of his role in it.
Of course, this won’t even ripple in the media landscape because any time spent actually talking policy takes time away from the horserace.
@Jen: Hey! I’m sick and tired of people blaming the school for the phenomenon of students who fail their classes because they didn’t do the work. During the years that I taught, I continually found that the correlation was that when students didn’t know stuff, it was because they’d never bothered to crack open a book.
And if you’re living in an area with genuinely bad schools, 1) shame on you for neglecting details that matter for your kid’s development when you chose where to live, and 2) blame your neighbors on the school board for letting the schools be crappy. Schools are reflections of the communities they are in. Living in one place for an extended period numbs you jarheads to the role that community plays in your lives. From the time I was in my 30s, I lived in 10 communities, probably more. Most places don’t have failing school systems; they have failing parents and failing children.
Knock this shit off. I’m tired of liberals and conservative both using “the failure of the schools to do their job” as their go to excuse for “shitty people doing shitty things.”
@Jack: Trump has an energy policy (or a policy on anything else for that matter)? Whoa! [mind blown emoji]
@Michael Reynolds: Well sure, but who is Drew going to believe, himself or a bunch of lying numerical data?
@steve: In the modern era, since Clinton for my definition, the problem with Democrats is that they haven’t taxed enough. ETA: But that brings me back to “the center is where progress goes to die” and I already get that this audience doesn’t like that message.
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Most schools don’t teach household economics, or credit card interest rates, or how car/homeowners/life insurance works. They don’t teach how mortgages work, or how credit ratings can affect just about everything.
Teachers are overworked and way underpaid, and I fully understand that there are not enough hours in the day to cram all of this in. But it IS a failure of priorities that students do not have multiple, annual segments on this stuff. It’s how huge swaths of our population are drowning in credit card debt, and accepting that–somehow! magically!–a presidential candidate could help them out with this. Too many people do NOT understand how these basic, everyday things even work.
We accept, collectively, for whatever reason that this sort of money management will be taught in the home, but for every family with good financial habits, there are probably many more who do not. That’s why only something like 30 or 40% of households could put their hands on $400 if they need it for an emergency.
@ptfe:
We’ve known since 2016 that Trump’s policy research consists of throwing out random shit at rallys. If it dies, it’s gone. If it gets a big response, like the border wall did, then it’s policy. All to be forgotten, one way or another, Nov 6. You say policy A conflicts with policy B. They both get applause, so what’s your point?
@Michael Reynolds:
Does he really have a choice? Or is it just his nature to be ignorant and a liar?
I tend to think that ultimately people do have a choice, but circumstances and outside factors can really put a big thumb on the scale and influence those choices. I think that is what is happening with Jack, and that he doesn’t feel like he has a choice, because it would be such a fight against those factors.
It’s like the Fight, Flight or Freeze response if you get punched in the head — there’s a choice, but you have to fight against that immediate response.
@Jen: @Just nutha ignint cracker: I blame the press more than the schools or the students. The press talk a lot about their sacred role in a democratic society of informing the public. They use that sacred role in their marketing and they demand special privileges and access based on it. If the public is woefully misinformed, seems to me the press ought to see that as a failing they should address.
@gVOR10: That’s a fair point, and I agree to some extent.
However, given the fact that many people don’t seek out news–in any form–I still strongly believe that there is a role for public education on financial topics. It’s basically for the same reason we have sex ed in most public schools–some of the “information” passed down from parents was wrong, or total garbage. When parents are uncomfortable talking about a topic (like sex or money) or when there’s a lot of misunderstanding of technical information (like the human body or financial markets), there’s a case to be made for it being part of the curriculum.