Trump Wins Pennsylvania, Likely the Presidency
The 45th President looks to be the 47th.
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/trump-victory-speech-2024-reuters-1024x575.avif)
After an early morning for both of us, my wife and I decided to turn in just before 11. We tried the talking heads on NBC and then ABC, and listening to them drone on with comparisons of partial counts to 2020 total counts and exit polls in a normal race vs. those in a COVID-altered election was just exhausting.
I awoke to this:
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NYT_Needle_202411060525-1024x745.avif)
Thus far, things have gone exactly as I predicted with the all-important exception of Pennsylvania going slightly for Trump rather than slightly for Harris. But, if the NYT Needle is right, Trump would sweep the swing states. Few predicted that.
As far as I can tell, no reputable outlet has yet made an official call. But it would take a miracle at this point for Harris to win. I don’t expect one.
Trump, naturally, didn’t wait for the media or for a Harris concession.
AP (“With Harris’ path to victory narrowing, Trump declares victory“):
Former President Donald Trump took the stage with his family at West Palm Beach County Convention Center early Wednesday morning to the raucous cheers of supporters
As Trump neared the projected 270 electoral votes needed to win, he declared victory as Vice President Kamala Harris’ path to reach that threshold narrowed following projections for Trump in North Carolina, Georgia and in highly prized Pennsylvania.
At the time ABC News had not yet projected a winner in the overall race, or in the four remaining swing states, as results continued to come in.
“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” Trump said. “And it is now clear that we’ve achieved the most incredible political — hey, look what happened, isn’t this crazy? But it’s a political victory.”
“It’s a political victory that our country is never seen before, nothing like this,” he added. “I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president.”
He did not mention Harris.
Trump told the crowd they ushered in a new “golden age of America.”
“Every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family, and your future,” he said. “Every single day I will be fighting for you, and with every breath in my body.”
Thus far, the major papers are still in live-blog mode rather than putting out feature stories.
WaPo (“Trump close to winning second presidency, pledges to ‘fix everything’“):
Former president Donald Trump claimed victory early Wednesday as he was closing in on the 270 electoral votes he needed to clinch the presidency. Speaking from Florida, Trump promised to “fix everything” and praised his supporters as the “greatest political movement of all time.” Trump spoke after he was projected the winner in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state in his high-stakes race against Vice President Kamala Harris. He was also the projected winner in North Carolina and Georgia, but other swing states remained too close to call.
NYT (“Battleground victories are powering Trump.“):
Donald J. Trump has captured Pennsylvania, the biggest prize of the seven battleground states in one of the most consequential presidential elections in modern American history. It all but seals his return to the White House four years after voters turned him out.
Georgia, a state that Mr. Trump narrowly lost in 2020, and North Carolina, a state he narrowly won, had already moved into the win column for the former president. With Pennsylvania gone, Vice President Kamala Harris’s “blue wall” along the Great Lakes has cracked, and her path to becoming the first woman in the Oval Office has nearly disappeared.
Republicans also flipped control of the Senate with a string of key victories. In Ohio, Bernie Moreno defeated Senator Sherrod Brown, a resilient red-state Democrat. The retiring Senator Joseph Manchin, an independent, will be replaced by the state’s Republican governor, Jim Justice. And Senator Deb Fischer held off a dark-horse challenge in Nebraska from a blue-collar independent, Dan Osborn, eliminating any path Democrats had toward retaining control of the chamber.
Speaking to supporters in Palm Beach, Fla., in the early hours of the morning, Mr. Trump declared, “This will forever be remembered as the day the American people regained control of their country.”
Two hours before, the crowd at Ms. Harris’s election watch party at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington, D.C., had already thinned by midnight, and the mood was glum when Cedric Richmond, a co-chairman of the Harris campaign, told those who were left that the vice president would not be coming to campus. Her supporters streamed for the exits.
UPDATE: As I was compiling my roundup, NBC News called it for Trump (“Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris to become the next U.S. president, NBC News projects“):
Donald J. Trump, the once and now future president, capped an improbable political comeback by defeating Vice President Kamala Harris on promises to turbocharge the economy and deport undocumented immigrants by the millions.
NBC News projected the Trump victory over Harris, who was the first woman of color to win a major party nomination for president, early Wednesday morning. She took the reins of the Democratic campaign after President Joe Biden abandoned his bid for a second term, a decision made in the wake of a disastrous June debate performance.
The most polarizing figure in modern American politics, Trump now must preside over a nation deeply riven by social, racial, cultural and economic hostilities that he has strategically exploited on the campaign trail for nearly a decade. It was, for him, a successful strategy. The last time a defeated U.S. president avenged his loss was Grover Cleveland — in 1892.
“This was the greatest political movement of all time,” Trump said just before 2:30 a.m. Wednesday at a rally in West Palm Beach, Florida. “Now it’s going to reach a new level of importance because we’re going to help our country heal.”
Trump’s path back to the White House ran through Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin, states he reclaimed after losing them in 2020. He remained locked in close contests with Harris in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada as he looked to pad his Electoral College margin.
It was a campaign unlike any other, waged by a unique figure in American history. Trump emerged victorious despite facing a dozen Republican primary challengers, four indictments, a criminal conviction, a finding that he was liable for sexual abuse, the bullet of a would-be assassin and the Democratic candidacies of the president and his vice president.
Nothing served as a more apt metaphor for Trump’s perseverance than his reaction to being shot at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July. After a bullet clipped his right ear, a bloodied Trump rose to his feet, jabbed his fist in the air and yelled “Fight, Fight, Fight!” The iconic sequence was incorporated into late-campaign ads as part of his closing argument.
Trump’s return to the White House extends a volatile era in which both the presidency and control of Congress have routinely been decided by the thin margins, reflecting an electorate almost evenly split between the two major parties. Through a firehose of false and polarizing information and smears of his rivals, especially Harris, Trump painted America as a corrupt, economically failing and crime-ridden nation. He leaned into violent rhetoric, referring to a shooter firing into the reporters covering his rallies or guns being pointed at a former U.S. Republican representative who doesn’t support him.
Voters chose him to lead the path forward, despite warnings from the left and his own former aides that he will rule as an authoritarian.
It wasn’t just Trump who endured. His Make America Great Again movement proved resilient with voters. Trump re-harnessed the backlash against establishment powers during his grievance-filled third campaign, according to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is an informal adviser to the president-elect.
“The great mistake that analysts make is that they focus on Trump, rather than the underlying momentum that has created Trump,” Gingrich said in an interview with NBC News. “Trump is the personification of at least half the country rejecting, decisively and vehemently, the governing elite.”
And yet Trump will have to work with the governing elites in Congress to enact laws and fulfill his mandate. During Trump’s first term, he found resistance to the most extreme elements of his agenda in both parties. Riding his coattails, Republicans in 2024 seized control of the Senate, while control of the House still hung in the balance as of Wednesday morning.
The call is likely premature but also likely correct.
The nature of swing states and the polling over the last several months is such that none of the results are all that surprising. I fully expected Trump to win Georgia and North Carolina and, of course, Iowa, the one weird poll notwithstanding. But sweeping the swing states—if that happens—is something else altogether. Not exactly a wave election, but a rejection of the status quo at what seems a rather high cost.
In his prediction yesterday, Steven Taylor mentioned the Democrats’ seeming advantage in the ground game. Months ago, I had expressed my bafflement at Trump essentially destroying the Republican National Committee and its infrastructure, raiding its funds to support his personal legal battles. It didn’t matter. Or, if it did, his support was strong enough to overcome it.
I’ve argued for a while now that 2020 was an anomaly because of the weird way we conducted the election in the midst of a pandemic—compounded by Trump’s self-sabotage in telling people not to trust mail-in balloting. While likely not decisive overall, it almost certainly gave Biden to Georgia.
The one thing that has surprised me this morning is the number of states that had abortion rights measures on the ballots, passed them (or, in the case of Florida, had sizable majorities vote for them in defeat because of absurd supermajority requirements), and yet elected Trump. Relatedly, the predicted—and quite plausible—wave of women breaking with their husbands and siding with Her over Him would seem not to have materialized.
Parsing all of this is extremely challenging. Exit polls were always a bit suspect but are nigh unto useless in an era where huge numbers vote by mail and/or before Election Day. Traditionalists who vote the day of (which included all five voting members of my immediate family) are likely unrepresentative.
But I’ve been saying all along that Trump’s bizarre rants and boorish behavior are simply baked in. As outrageous as his pronouncements are, they merely reinforce pre-existing beliefs. It either confirms what Democrat-leaners already thought or is dismissed as Trump Being Trump.
In which case, we basically had a normal election under abnormal circumstances. We had a quasi-incumbent lose an election when the incumbent was broadly unpopular and the overwhelming majority of the country thought we were going in the wrong direction. So, folks who aren’t strong partisans voted for the out-party candidate.
Also surprising but definitely premature: Trump is currently leading the popular vote by 5 million, 51% to 47.5%. In 2016 and 2020, Democrats gained millions of votes as the week went on owing to the slow counting in states that are overwhelmingly blue, especially California. If Trump wins the popular vote after having lost by 3 million in 2016 and 8 million in 2020, it would indeed be a stunner.
Overall, though, the polls look to have been pretty solid. As of 6:15, here’s what NYT is tracking:
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NYT_State_Results_2024-png.avif)
Literally every state expected to be won by either candidate, even narrowly, will be won by that candidate. Trump looks to be in the process of sweeping the seven swing states, all by pretty narrow margins.
This happened in 2016. Went to bed around 0830 looking at the trend lines and had a gut feeling of badness about to happen. This time around went to bed around 1000 with the same gut feeling. As I told my wife this morning, we will be fine (my retirement funds are soaring as I write). It’s the country that is screwed. Same incompetence and corruption only with practice.
I know it’s melodramatic but this popped into my head:
For the time being, my wife and I will be OK financially.
But I worry about the impending “hard times to come” that Musk says we will have to live through.
At my age, 80, I don’t have a great deal of “recovery” time.
I expect that Mr. Putin is very much gratified.
We are financially secure, but I expect to be very hard-hearted when the bad times come along. My first question will be: “For whom did you vote in 2024?”
I suspect that we too will be okay. I am concerned for some of our friends in marginalized communities, particularly our friends with a nonbinary adult child.
I am deeply disappointed in this country, but as Jo Dee Messina once sang, “My give a damn’s busted.”
Yeah, fuck me. I’m gonna have to deal with this idiot for the next four years. And all the shenanigans his minions will try to pull.
At the very least, most of them will be grossly incompetent at their appointee jobs and will fuck up hard.
What’s the over/under when Trump is deemed too demented to continue as President? Vance is more spooky to me than Trump. Vance actually has a worldview and some brains.
I now have four years of waking up and checking the news every morning to see if our idiot president walked us into WW3 via Twitter by being a blow-hard childish idiot. Thanks, America!
@Scott: I don’t find that melodramatic at all.
Nor this:
It’s not just the swing states, Trump has massively overperformed compared to 2020 and even 2016. He’s going to win the popular vote too.
This map says it all.
The early reports indicate that Trump improved with almost all demographic groups except college educated women. The big gains in blue states (while still losing those states) is what’s giving him a PV lead.
Once Democrats and anti-Trumpers get through the grief process to acceptance, there needs to be a reckoning. This loss is decisive enough that it cannot be blamed on the usual suspects and external sources, although many will try.
The filter and media bubbles and navel gazing have led many astray, including myself. I intend to recalibrate my analytical framework and information sources because it’s clear I got captured by a lot of that despite my frequent pushback here. I did not at all expect the level and scale of this result and that is on me for failing to seriously consider it.
Many, many liberal commenters (esp on Slate) managed to loudly express their bigotry against Arabs/Muslims by bemoaning how they could be handing Michigan – and the presidency – to Trump, and as such deserved everything they got. Oddly, didn’t see such concerns about voters in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
@de stijl:
I actually don’t worry about that. I worry about him implying the post-WWII liberal order and creating long-term economic havoc.
@Assad K:
At the moment, the popular vote over the last 12 years raises some questions about 2020. If this holds, then I suspect researchers will be delving into the anomaly of the massive turnout in 2020.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Yeah, he hates NATO for some dumb reason.
It’s boggling.
How can a purported Republican hate NATO? It’s boggling to me. I don’t get it. Those guys are supposed to be more pro-NATO than me. I kinda like the goals of neo-liberalism. I most def prefer that rather than authoritarian fiat control.
Then I realize it’s Trump. Who spent months there in high end hotels that definitely don’t have secret cameras and state paid prostitutes to institute a honey trap on a useful idiot, and their government would never leverage that as blackmail. Speculation is unproven.
One can speculate about unprovens, but I know with absolute certainty that Trump is weirdly deferential to Putin.
. Alas, that’s the problem.![🙁](https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/15.0.3/svg/1f641.svg)
Alas. This is, indeed, who we are and what America has become.
This is what playing the long game looks like. Decades of right wing propaganda and stoking fear and anger and trickle down economic bullshit. And selling weird penis pills. Just what is in all those supplements Alex Jones sell? Orrin Hatch made keeping them unregulated was one of his biggest issues back in the day.
Point being, our “institutions “ didn’t start collapsing in a vacuum. Years of chicanery by America’s enemies and the abomination of the right wing political grifting economy that Citizens United exploded have taken an enormous toll on the world. The richer the rich got through brainwashing men, the more they went at it.
There is no equivalent operation by liberal minded people. We try and appeal to the angel on your shoulder. Pretty clear that the devil on the other shoulder is the conservatives target.
I don’t think America can come back from this. Actually, I have long believed “it can happen here” and it did in 2016. That was the day the music died.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I’m a bit of a worrier. Can’t help it.
The most prideful, egotistical, least knowledgeable, least savvy dude ever is President.
Putin threatens him with humiliation.
He went bankrupt on a casino in Atlantic City. How lame is that? You basically have to keep the doors open, provide slots, keno, blackjack, poker and a relatively decent hotel experience. It takes a lot of work to make a casino/hotel in Atlantic City fail.
He is a proven idiot driven by pride. He’s gonna be our new President. Again.
@Andy:
BTW as your link you do not have the title: How counties are shifting in the 2024 presidential election
More Washington Post
Amongst the many things you noted Andy which was not well received here – was the differential impact of inflation and that the bourgeousie-splaining about how inflation not-so-bad-it’s-all-fox-news disinformation was blinding
Myself I noted many times that the 2nd set of stimulus by the Democrats (which the “Progressives” were pissy about too little) was at the time it was pushed a significant policy error (albeit an understandable one) as clearly inflationary in the midst of signs of a supply-chain triggered start of inflation. The subsequent Democratic inflation denialism / minimisation was an enormous error in discourse, tone deaf and blinkered
The Democrats have been bleeding labouring class votes – amongst white men but now that is expanding – and the response in these kind of fora has been cultural snobbery and elitism – the tone deaf Uni-grad echo chambre (leading to things like Latinx – of course no one item is in reality a deciding factor, but small accumulations).
Treating the entire Trump vote as boxes of rocks and with disdainful intello contempt will not make for wins.
@Assad K: I mean, on one hand, yeah, ok.
On the other hand, Trump’s campaign called Puerto Rico a floating pile of garbage in the last week of the campaign, and the Puerto Ricans didn’t seem to change their mind much.
My Biden as President experience is decidedly neutral. He’s fine. He didn’t fuck it up. He did okay. No/low drama. Low key.
I will argue until the day is long that low key, no drama Presidents are best for comity and amity.
But Biden was not a good spokesman. He was a competent placeholder. He didn’t make things worse. At least, not on purpose.
Trump will definitely make things worse on purpose. Apparently, a goodly portion of America wants an idiot with drama.
@JKB: So help me, if you’re gonna start up with “The Dems cheated”, I’m gonna counter with how the Trump campaign cheated this time.
@Andy:
I was on the fence post. Thought Harris would perform better. My internal thought was that Harris would win by a smidgen.
I was wrong.
I don’t blame her, btw. She ran a quite competent campaign, she did not screw the pooch/ fuck up by any means I see.
More Americans in swing states preferred Trump and his message than her and her message for whatever reason.
I don’t get it, but that was what happened.
I’m not angry, but I am disappointed. America, you can do better.
@Steven L. Taylor: Exactly.
@Andy:
What reckoning?
Harris did a pretty spot on D message campaign. Where did she go wrong and alienate a salient slice of voters? In what swing states? Outside of being a D, that is.
Slightly over half of Americans in 2024 prefer authoritarian, punitive hard action, misogyny, anti-trans, anti-gay hard core shit to shut that all down and make it go away.
Example: in Dragon Age: Veilguard out this week the character creator allows you to pick pronouns. This is unacceptable to many. Woke. Cringe. The game is getting hugely review bombed because of that. Mostly from folks who don’t even own the game. And because it allows pronoun choice in playable character creation. In an RPG. Where you can choose your species and class and specialization. An option about pronouns you don’t have to choose exists. It triggers people that the option exists. These are unwinnable voters, and, frankly, I don’t want them.
I can get behind better messaging and marketing, but core message has to be consistent.
What, exactly, did Harris do wrong in her campaign? How did she miss or alienate winnable voters? What was the message that could win more on the fence votes?
@Lounsbury:
Yeah, Harris lost because some dumb-ass on Twitter keeps trying to make “fetch” happen.
If only political parties could control the speech of all their private citizen supporters and private citizen allies. Wouldn’t that work out well?
Changing to Latinx isn’t a D policy. Conflating. By that logic, what do you do with neo-nazis and Republicans?
@JKB: The popular vote count from this morning has already risen and will continue to do so for quite some time as votes are tallied. In California alone, they may not reach the 2020 total of 17M+ votes for Biden and Trump, but will certainly be well above the 9M+ votes currently counted.
@de stijl: @de stijl: Well you are the proper illustration of why the Democrats have a problem, the cliquey defensive lash out, denying of course that anything was done wrong.
The Latinx illustration is not conflating anyhthing at all although you have of course set-up the usual Straw Man to knock down. Rather it is an illustratio of one of cumulative effects on the margin – and the overall impression you lot give. It is not your formal policy positions, it is the
Brand sales, brand estabishment. It is rather more than formal messaging and the pious arch respones of “oh that is not a formal policy” becomes a barrier to changing your brand since you can not squarely admit.
Andy’s link to the chart showing a virtual total national movement across the board amongst various non-Urban geographies to the Republicans, plus the other preliminary data showing the Democrats again lost working class (non-Uni graduated) voters and this expanded more into non-white even more says you have a fundamental problem, a decade long progression that each cycle finds excuses made but is a long term problem – a problem driven by Intello archness as your own.
Of course your angry reponse will be to repeat the lazy demonisation of the Trump (essentially working class voters) as you did in reply to Andy, as racist authoritarians – uncouth scum in the end – not worthy of the Democrats vote pitch. Impure heathens as they are, why should one think of examining what one is getting wrong to spend 10-15 years slowly bleeding out votes and losing a 2nd time to the short-fingered Vulgarian? – rather better to piously proclaim your adhesive support to the gay trans “communities of colour” etc than develop an understanding of a mode to not lose and thus perhaps not open up the fetishised to actually being worse off under Trump…
@de stijl:
It’s not just about Harris. And if your spot-on D message campaign results in a historic loss to the worst candidate in generations, then maybe it’s time to start looking at the message and its consistency and popularity. Why is the Biden administration the most unpopular Democratic administration since Carter? Why did Harris run significantly behind down-ballot Democrats? Why did pretty much every voting demographic across most of the country slide toward Trump compared to 2020, even in deep blue areas?
If your answer is a few douchebags online complaining about a video game and the conclusion that 51% of the country just wants fascism, then that is blaming the loss on the usual suspects and external sources, as I mentioned. It’s also a recipe for perpetual loss.
@Andy: I dunno man the sanewashing being strong in the media which is owned by a handful of billionaire might be part of the problem. Look at how coverage of Biden’s age vs Trump’s age went. It’s more than clear the media went full hand on the scale for Trump. You can say any policy you want but what matters is how it’s reported by the billionaire class. A large amount if not most people aren’t paying much attention so they rely on billionaire owned stations playing in the background to inform them. For fuck’s sake there was a spike in google searches just the other day asking if Biden had dropped out…
Trump promised a pony and rainbows for everyone without bothering to explain how he’d do any of it. The media dutifully reported it as fact. Harris in contrast faced reality with her policies and that hurt her.
@Andy:
So what would have been the winning message?
Harris lost fair and square.
How could she have performed or delivered better?
How was the message off or poorly delivered to winnable voters?
@de stijl:
As I said, it’s not just about Harris.
Before the election I gave my criticisms of Harris’ strategy in other threads, but now that we know the scope and scale of Trump’s decisive victory, I can’t say for certain that any or all of them would have mattered. It could be that Harris picked up a losing hand with no chance of winning regardless of what she did.
But the two biggest errors, IMO, were:
– Voters and public were/are unhappy with the Biden admin and the last four years. Again, I’ve kept pointing out that this administration has historic levels of unpopularity. She never made a break from that or meaningfully differentiated herself and the admin or the admin’s unpopular policies. She was given lots of opportunities to identify a specific way her presidency would be different and didn’t have much to say.
– She should have done more media and non-traditional media. While I understand she had to take a bit of time to get her campaign in order, she should have got out there sooner. Not doing Rogan, for instance, was especially short-sighted.
Would that have been enough? Probably not.
@Andy:
She had a whole list of policy positions that were different from Biden’s. She said details many times over in various interviews and statements. It’s almost as if someone was filtering that information out so you never noticed…
Could you list some of these unpopular policies?
More media? She was all over the place once she was nominated and got her campaign going. She was also all over non-traditional media too. Maybe she should of done Rogan but who knows how that would of went. Rogan’s interview of Trump had some jarringly noticeable edits to make Trump look better. Who knows what Rogan would of done editing wise for Kamala. I get it though Rogan’s fanbase are overwhelmingly male and conservative so of course you think he’s super important.
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/08/nx-s1-5144874/kamala-harris-call-her-daddy-alex-cooper-howard-stern-60-minutes-colbert-the-view
There’s nothing you can really do when exit polls show that the majority of voters think that things were better four years ago during the middle of the pandemic when we were fighting for toilet paper and food. That the economy is the biggest problem despite the USA’s economy being the best in the world and beating past metrics. IT’s almost as if people are being lied to by something…
There’s no doubt that there’s problems with the economy for the average citizen. The problem being the rich elites ensuring that the rest of us are fighting for ever tinier portions. I’m not surprised Musk wants to crash the economy. Every time the economy crashes the top 0.1% hoover up even more wealth. When you have that much money crashes are just opportunities to expand. Just look at what they did with the 2008 crash.
EDIT : Now we wait for that day when the media suddenly declares that the USA has the best economy in the world despite no changes outside of Trump being elected.