Helene Cooper of the NYT (“Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Top 2 Million, Study Finds“) points us to a study by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a top foreign affairs think tank, titled “Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War.”
I haven’t had time to read the brief and full, but the executive summary is powerful. It begins:
Russia has lost the military initiative in Ukraine as costs continue to mount. The Russian military has suffered 1.4 million battlefield casualties and as many as 450,000 deaths since its February 2022 full-scale invasion, according to new CSIS data. Russia’s territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026, with a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers in April and May. In addition, Ukraine has orchestrated an increasingly successful campaign of short-, medium-, and long-range strikes against Russian military and economic targets using AI-enabled systems and a new paradigm for air power.
In a stunning acknowledgement of Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin dramatically scaled back his annual military parade in May 2026 because of concerns about Ukrainian long-range strikes and increasing battlefield challenges in Ukraine. For many Russians, 2026 has been a difficult year. Everyday Russians are suffering from a sputtering economy, higher prices on groceries and other expenses, tax increases, significant internet restrictions, and an oppressive crackdown on freedom of speech—largely because of the war in Ukraine. In addition, major cities throughout Russia, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, have come under attack by Ukrainian drones and long-range missiles, not just towns and cities in Russia’s border region with Ukraine, such as Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk. Crimea has also come under withering attack by Ukraine, forcing Russia to close summer camps and beaches, disrupting fuel supplies, and causing electricity outages.
But much of the analysis on Russia’s battlefield performance has been anecdotal. This study examines several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance compiled by CSIS: fatality and casualty rates, rates of advance of Russian forces as measured in meters per day, and Russian territorial gains in total square kilometers. It also collects and analyzes data on over 20,000 incidents involving Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets. What does this data suggest about Russia’s military performance in Ukraine?
First, Russian battlefield costs continue to mount, with as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths and 1.4 million casualties between February 2022 and June 2026. These rates are astounding. Russian fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II.
In addition, Russia’s monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 have likely exceeded Russia’s recruitment rates of roughly 27,000 new recruits per month. The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war, in large part due to Ukraine’s use of drones—including AI-enabled drones—as part of its aggressive air interdiction campaign.
Second, Russia’s ground offensive has largely stalled, with an average rate of advance of approximately 50 meters per day around Kostiantynivka, 70 meters per day around Pokrovsk, and 90 meters per day around Sloviansk. These are among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century.
Third, Russia’s territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026. Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in both April and May, a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers and their first monthly net losses since August 2024—yet another sign of Russia’s military struggles.
There’s quite a bit more just in the summary, including some rather compelling graphics.
The bottom line is that, while Ukraine isn’t winning the war, Russia is losing. The death toll is staggering even in an autocratic regime that has a long history of attrition warfare. They’re grinding through soldiers at an unsustainable pace while getting nothing for it.
