Wednesday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Professor of Security Studies. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Tony W says:

    I find myself shocked, again, that America thought waking up to “what the hell did he do this time?” every morning seemed like a good idea.

    14
  2. Rick DeMent says:

    The one thing that has me really vexed about politics in the US going forward is that if democracy survives Trump, all presidential candidates in the future will need to be celebrities in their own right outside of politics. It took 40 years for the infamous quote from Back to the Future, when the doctor is marveling at Marty’s camcorder ” … no wonder your president is an actor he needs to look goo on television” to be realized in full complete with a cabinet made up other actors.

    Our evaluation of leaders is now the sole providence of a reality TV show called “The Presidential Campaign”

    7
  3. Kylopod says:

    @Rick DeMent:

    when the doctor is marveling at Marty’s camcorder ” … no wonder your president is an actor he needs to look goo on television” to be realized

    I definitely agree Trump looks goo on television.

    10
  4. Rick DeMent says:

    @Kylopod: Well apparently he does to a lot of people 🙂

    1
  5. just nutha says:

    @Rick DeMent: Democracy will survive Trump. American Democratic Government, on the other hand, may well end up severely damaged. I can’t help that, though, and Congress doesn’t seem willing to, so far.

    9
  6. Rick DeMent says:

    @Kylopod: … but it must be good Goo 🙂

    1
  7. CSK says:

    @Rick DeMent:

    Only the best goo.

    2
  8. Not the IT Dept. says:

    Here’s something that might turn out to be problematic for us: Trump’s Truth Social might be buying a crypto trading firm ( https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/sic-transit-15 ).

    I’m not sure the president owning something like this looks good for the American dollar (you know, the national currency?) but on the other hand if Gaetz, Gabbard, RFK Jr, et al agree to be paid in crypto only, then that would be fine with me.

    But seriously, how does this not trigger a whole bunch of alarms re conflict of interest?

    And for RDM and CSK: if it’s covfefe goo, then it just doesn’t get any better.

    5
  9. Michael Reynolds says:

    I wonder if @James and @Steven are concerned for their jobs. This blog could be ‘problematic,’ in both military and academic circles.

    3
  10. Stormy Dragon says:

    Trans Day of Remembrance: At least 350 trans people killed globally this year

    The number is one of the highest death tolls since the monitoring project began in 2008, which could be caused by the “concerted efforts of anti-gender and anti-rights movements that instrumentalise and vilify trans people”, according to TGEU.

    “We have seen a consistent rise in the levels of online and offline hate speech and hate crimes, especially from political actors and religious and faith leaders, public figures,” a spokesperson for the group said.

    “This rise is enabled by the lack of strong hate-crime legislation that protects gender identity and expression, and the manipulative disinformation resulting from the lack of accountability for social media companies on ensuring information integrity.”

    5
  11. charontwo says:

    Some fascism stuff:

    Big Picture

    1
  12. wr says:

    @Not the IT Dept.: “But seriously, how does this not trigger a whole bunch of alarms re conflict of interest?”

    Of course it does. But the people whose job it is to respond to those alarms will have been fired and replaced by people paid to ignore them.

    5
  13. Kathy says:

    I wonder if there’s a market for a felon filter.

    It would work by substituting any photo or video of the felon’s face for a clown, or something else the user picks. Also perhaps change his voice to Mark Hamill’s Joker.

    3
  14. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Not the IT Dept.:
    @wr:

    That’s simply the opening salvo in what will be a connonade of corruption from trump, the admin and the oligarchs. This is exactly the type of behavior that is rife in authoritarian states. There is an opinion piece that I haven’t read yet, but the headline is to the effect that trump is like an African dictator.

    4
  15. Kathy says:

    On the reading front, I’m listening to “A People’s Tragedy,” which is a history of the Russian revolution of 1917. Part of the time it feels like rerun of Duncan’s Revolutions podcast, the rest delves more deeply into cultural and philosophical factors, and a lot more on the peasantry, than Duncan ever explored.

    At work on breaks I’m still reading Trekonomics. It’s a bit repetitive (I think I’ve read the same explanation about work in the Federation to make it sound like propaganda), and a lot of it depends on the replicator.

    This got me thinking whether such a things might ever be remotely possible. I landed on the Robot Devil’s quote: definitely probably not.

    The idea goes back a long way. I first read about in Clarke’s Profiles of the Future. I think he used a different name (like fabricator or duplicator). He did believe it would be incredibly expensive to develop, and very cheap to make. Why? because once you have one, you direct it to make the parts needed for a second one, then exponential growth takes over.

    More likely we’ll have machines, like super-advanced 3d printers, that can make some things form raw materials quickly. this is additive manufacturing, and it may lead to products we can’t quite conceive of or make just now (like a solid fabric not made from fibers, off the top of my head). But you’ll need different machines for different kinds of things. One for metals, say, one for ceramics, one for drugs, etc.

    So, no magic universal fabricator running on energy and vague molecular assembly, Certainly not one that can make elements on demand (or even in advanced orders).

    We may get so good at production and manufacture may become so automated that money will cease to have any meaning. But that will first require a major shift in culture, politics, and economics.

  16. Jen says:

    @CSK: Answering your question from yesterday about red flag warnings–pretty much the entire state has been under red flag warnings on and off for around two weeks. The mountain regions do have some snow, so maybe the North Country/Coos County aren’t, but the rest of the state has had a bunch of brush fires. Apparently, riding lawn mowers are a factor in some of them. The exhaust gets heated enough to spark fires, and with a lot of dry autumn leaves on the ground, this is an issue. We also have idiots like this causing problems.

    1
  17. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Well, we’re both supposed to be getting rain tomorrow, so that should help some.

    I hope they throw the book at those two jackasses.

    1
  18. CSK says:
  19. Min says:

    So, El Felon nominating Linda McMahon as his pick for Education Secretary was not on my bingo card.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/19/politics/linda-mcmahon-education-secretary-trump/index.html

    This administration is already making me so tired….everyday, some news I try not to find too shocking.

    2
  20. CSK says:

    @Min:

    Matthew Whitaker is Trump’s choice for NATO ambassador.

    2
  21. Beth says:

    @Not the IT Dept.:

    One thing I’ve been wondering, and maybe Lounsbury or JohnSF could throw some light on this; what would it take for the Europeans and/or Chinese to tell the Saudis/OPEC that they aren’t paying for petroleum in Dollars anymore. My understanding is that the Chinese have a lot of their money tied up in U.S. Bonds, so maybe they don’t do it or move first. What’s to stop Europe from doing it?

    I assume that would be a pretty freaking devastating blow to the U.S., but we are too stupid to understand that we wrote the rules of world trade to benefit us.

    6
  22. Kathy says:

    @Min:
    @CSK:

    Just as there’s no such thing as the best person for a post, there’s no such thing as the worst person for a post.

    But damned if el felon is not trying really hard to find the latter.

    4
  23. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: I’ll disagree. Given that best and worst are contingent on one’s goals for the post, there are, absolutely, best and better or worst and worse choices.

    The part that you are correct on is that given the millions of people in the nation that oneself and one’s transition team don’t know or aren’t aware of, the likelihood that you will find “the best” person is fairly small. Moreover, the Peter Principle plays a role in that it’s possible (Peter would say “likely”) that the best person is consciously and conscientiously avoiding notice because said person doesn’t want the job.

    But the current transition team isn’t looking for bests or worsts. Mere incompetence is adequate for their goal if the candidate is loyal.

    ETA: And I will say that, so far, the team’s ability to get to the absolute dregs of the barrel is remarkable.

    4
  24. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Beth:

    Paul Krugman has written in the last couple of weeks on the US dollar as the reserve currency, the TL/DR of his conclusions is that the US does see a small advantage and any threat of moving away from the dollar would likely fail as the exchange system has been set up around the dollar.

    1
  25. de stijl says:

    @Tony W:

    The “What did Trump tweet or do last night?” routine is surely tiresome.

    I’m a civically minded person and pay attention to the news. The next four years will be taxing.

    Thankfully, Trump is an idiot more concerned about PR than reality, and seems determined to hire performative idiots who talk big, but can’t do squat.

    Hopefully, we will be spared the full consequences of electing such a person as President by sheer ineptitude and, hopefully, essentially meaningless performative shenanigans and dumbassery.

    I highly prefer a cabinet of celebrity cranks, quacks, and dumbasses over qualified, seasoned professionals hell-bent on fundamental change.

    We’re betting the farm on bureaucratic inertia and professionalism. And judges.

    3
  26. drj says:

    @Beth:

    What’s to stop Europe from doing it?

    I don’t think the Euros want to be the ones who end NATO.* But maybe the calculation changes after Trump does it for them.

    * After all, the unspoken deal has always been support for a US-dominated economic system in exchange for military protection. Same thing with Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc.

    3
  27. CSK says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Didn’t Adlai Stevenson say that wanting the job of the presidency disqualifies you from holding it?

    3
  28. Kathy says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    ETA: And I will say that, so far, the team’s ability to get to the absolute dregs of the barrel is remarkable.

    All the more so as they get the dregs off a half full barrel. that takes talent.

    On other things, I want to try air fryer burgers again. I overcooked them a bit last time. So I’m thinking bigger patties, and maybe a different technique on the air fryer. The onion topping I made was good, but this time I want to add bell peppers to it (they don’t exactly brown). Air fryer potatoes on the side.

  29. Scott says:

    It’s because you are a second class citizen, dontcha know? And God’s will.

    Luna: Johnson blocked proxy voting for new moms

    Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said Wednesday that Speaker Mike Johnson has blocked her proposal to allow new mothers to vote by proxy for several months from being included in the rules package for the next Congress.

    “Today, after speaking with @SpeakerJohnson about this for months, I was told, He will not support allowing female members to vote if they give birth,” she wrote in a thread on X. “Among other things, this is something that I fundamentally disagree with him on.”

    “I don’t give a crap who you are or whether you just had a baby in the last six weeks,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said on “CR Podcast with Daniel Horowitz.” “It is unconstitutional to proxy vote.”

    Says who, Chip?

    5
  30. Lucysfootball says:

    Headline; Speaker Mike Johnson says he supports banning transgender women from using female bathrooms
    From same article: Johnson on Tuesday told reporters that he personally believes “a man cannot become a woman” but added, “I also believe that we treat everybody with dignity, and so we can do and believe all those things at the same time.”
    And by dignity, he means to treat them as if they are subhuman.
    Is Johnson competing for worst human being to ever be the Speaker of the House?
    What is going to happen when a House member decides they don’t want to use bathrooms with gay House members?

    4
  31. Lucysfootball says:

    @Scott: She’s certainly correct on the issue, but I don’t believe for a second that she is doing this because it is the right thing. She is hardcore Trump all the way, and she wouldn’t know the right thing if it her on the ass.

    1
  32. JohnSF says:

    @Beth:
    It’s something the Europeans could attempt, politically, but would be so clearly an adversary act it would need a lot of motivation to do so. And for little obvious gain.
    Especially as EU has huge holdings of US currency and bonds.
    About double the China assets, iirc.
    And that’s setting aside the UK, which by itself is about on a par with China.

    It would need a strong pan-European consensus to do so, which, given the EU can hardly unite on a breakfast menu, seems unlikely at this point.

    Of course, if the US in effect broke the Atlantic Alliance, a lot of calculations might change. A need for a revival of of the 1950’s concept of a European Defence Union would be a massive driver to a more integrated EU.

    This would also be needed for the economic and financial aspects of any move to establish the euro as a true global reserve currency. Such a standing has considerable costs, and burdens, as well as advantages.
    It would need for instance a much deeper pool of freely trade-able euro-bonds, a EU debt pool on a massive scale, more integrated and supra-nationally regulated financial markets, etc etc.
    Obstacles include the German distrust of the whole concept of a massive EU debt funded, French suspicions of the role of EU level regulation of such markets, the problem of apportioning national debt liability and expenditures.

    For more informed opinion on the financial aspects and practicalities of such a project, Lounsbury might be better placed to comment than I.

    Then we have the major post-Brexit fact that London is now outside the EU regulatory zone; given the continuing, if diminishing importance of the City in such matters, that is significant.

    As I said, much would change if the US effectively terminated NATO.
    The requirements of an effective supra-regional defence structure and re-armament with a new strategic centre of control, would both drive integration and be a obvious use-case for massive funding increase. Both current, and, re debt, to fund the armaments manufacture and other infrastructure requirements.
    Plus a driver for a search for replacement for both US as well as Russian natural gas sources.
    The obvious replacement area being Middle East/North Africa.
    Which in turn drives more security imperatives; and might bring in train a desire for euro-based trading in such imports.

    Given all this, and the sluggish nature of European decision making, plus political problems various, it’s not going to be process Europe initiates.
    The question is, how many rational actors remain in play in DC to prevent a Trump (or Vance) administration to producing a driving crisis?

    4
  33. de stijl says:

    @Kathy:

    Just because you can air fry something doesn’t mean you should.

    Your home cooks were so preoccupied with whether or not they could air fry burgers, they didn’t stop to think if they should.

    A hot skillet works fine for char. Best, actually.

    Air frying is baking + broiling + a fan. It’s definately not frying.

    1
  34. Kathy says:

    I’m thinking about a confiscatory wealth tax.

    Start with a 2% tax on net worth of $50 million. It goes up two percentage points* for every additional $50 million in wealth. I haven’t done all the math, but if I’m right about what I’ve done, upon reaching $1 billion the tax rate would be 100%.

    What I haven’t figured out is the intermediate point where net worth is the highest post tax.

    On the plus side for the poor, poor billionaires, as the tax reduces their net worth, they will fall to a lower bracket!

    I know this has as much chance of happening as the felon showing decency, or Congressman Mace embracing reality. But I’m serious. One billion is such a huge number, no one has any need to own that much wealth, no matter its form.

    How big? suppose you had a job that paid you $5,000 every day, including weekends and holidays. That’s $1.825 million per year, before taxes. Now, suppose you spend nothing and invest nothing (no compound interest, no new business ventures, etc.) How long would it take you to amass $1 billion.

    I’ll waste a sentence here while you do the math.

    The answer is five hundred forty seven and one half years.

    4
  35. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    Thank you for all this, I appreciate it. I hadn’t thought through/knew some of it, other bits I think I’m in agreement with you.

    The question is, how many rational actors remain in play in DC to prevent a Trump (or Vance) administration to producing a driving crisis?

    That’s an easy question to answer, almost none. Also, of the rational actors remaining, the ones on the right will be terrified of getting murdered and the ones on the left won’t have a voice.

    At this point we have a good idea of what a Trump presidency will look like based on his prior term and the lunatics he’s nominated for the cabinet. I have zero faith that the Senate will block any of them. It’s not going to happen and if it looks like someone might have found a bit of spine Trump and Johnson will manufacture a disagreement between the House and Senate and recess the whole thing. I’m willing to bet money on this.

    I keep saying that we are going to know exactly how bad it will be on January 20, 2025. I would not be surprised in the least if Trump has Biden arrested and protestors shot. If that happens it’s jover.

    I also wouldn’t be surprised if Trump and his merry band of belligerent freaks push the country into an outright depression.

    I would also love it if, after my UK citizenship comes through, that Trump does something insane enough to make the UK and EU look at each other and decide that a redo is in their interests. I realize that this is fantasy on a whole lotta levels, but it would allow me to decamp to Spain instead of Scotland.

    3
  36. Beth says:

    @Kathy:

    Once we get past this, if we get past this, we’re going to have to do something about the billionaires. I don’t think people truly appreciate how destabilizing they are as a group. The top simply can’t have everything. We can still have fantastically rich people, but they need to be hobbled with taxes.

    3
  37. Bobert says:

    So Jose Ibarra has been found guilty and sentenced. (Riley trial)
    Apparently there is no doubt that he is undocumented (immigration basis).
    Which leads to the question: Will he be fetched up by the deportation czar and deported?
    If deported to his home country of Venezuela, will 1)Venezuela accept him 2) put him in a Venezuela jail for a crime committed in the US?
    What are the chances that Mexico would accept him and/or incarcerate him?

    1
  38. Gustopher says:

    @Rick DeMent:

    The one thing that has me really vexed about politics in the US going forward is that if democracy survives Trump, all presidential candidates in the future will need to be celebrities in their own right outside of politics.

    I’ve wanted a George Clooney and Someone Competent ticket since 2016. America wants a spokesmodel as much as a President, so let’s get a good Spokesmodel (Trump may be a better spokesmodel than most politicians, but he’s no George Clooney) and Someone Competent with good ideas behind him.

    2
  39. Mister Bluster says:

    The results are in. The Jackson County (IL) States Attorney’s race that was tied on election day with the incumbent Republican candidate and the Democratic challenger both tallying 10805 votes has been decided. This is the race that would have gone to the Republican incumbent by one vote on election day if I had not made it to the polls because my car was in the Ford garage for repair. After all the mail-in, military and provisional ballots were counted the Democratic candidate who I cast my ballot for won by 39 votes!

    I’ll say it again. My vote counts!
    WSIU-FM

    7
  40. Kathy says:

    @de stijl:

    Your home cooks were so preoccupied with whether or not they could air fry burgers, they didn’t stop to think if they should.

    I promise*: no thermonuclear burgers 😀

    I think you missed a crucial word in my comment: “again.” I made them last week, and I really liked them. A bit overcooked, especially the first batch, but I think different timing and larger patties will work wonders.

    My arsenal of pots and pans are all in various flavors of non-stick coatings. These make good Maillard rather difficult. I expect I’ll get a cast iron pan and I’m looking at stainless steel as well. but I’ve an air (non) fryer now.

    *No cloned dinosaurs, either. I think they’d make terrible burgers anyway.

    1
  41. Gustopher says:

    @Beth:

    I would not be surprised in the least if Trump has Biden arrested and protestors shot. If that happens it’s jover.

    Joe-ver?

    I hope Biden gives his kid a blanket pardon. Because getting Hunter is going to be a major priority and even if Hunter is a scumbag, he shouldn’t be a target just to get at his father. And Republicans will just keep digging.

    Also, Hunter might enjoy life in Spain. Not out of reach of extradition, but far enough to be a medium difficult to get at.

    4
  42. Gustopher says:

    @Kathy: not a fan of turkey burgers? Fair, I prefer a chicken sandwich.

    It’s all a matter of how the dinosaur is cooked.

    1
  43. Beth says:

    Rep. McBride will obey in advance. Trans people are so fucked.

    https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/congresswoman-mcbride-announces-she

    McBride’s statement reads, “I’m not here to fight about bathrooms. I’m here to fight for Delawareans and to bring down costs facing families. Like all members, I will follow the rules as outlined by Speaker Johnson, even if I disagree with them,”
    later adding, “This effort to distract from the real issues facing this country hasn’t distracted me over the last several days, as I’ve remained hard at work preparing to represent the greatest state in the union come January.”

    The decision has harsh implications for McBride and other transgender people. McBride will be forced to walk back to her office every time she needs to use the restroom, unable to access the common bathrooms like her colleagues. Transgender staffers, who have long used restrooms matching their gender identity without issue, will also be targeted under this policy. McBride will likely be barred from the women’s gym as well. This amounts to a forced segregation of the transgender congresswoman from public accommodations, with Johnson relying on familiar “separate but equal” rhetoric to justify the move—pointing to private, less accessible restrooms as an alternative that is neither equal nor fair.

    Meanwhile, McBride’s acquiescing to the ban shows no sign of stopping the attacks; bathroom bans continue to spread. Rep. Nancy Mace has expanded her efforts, introducing a bill to ban transgender people from using bathrooms in all federally owned spaces, including national parks, museums, and major airports like Dulles and DCA.

    Nancy Mace responded to McBride’s statement, saying, “Sarah McBride’s promise to abide by Speaker Johnson’s policy is a step toward acknowledging the rights of women everywhere—something we’ll continue to demand without compromise.”

    @The Q: Do you understand why we have to fight this on every front?

    3
  44. de stijl says:

    At the shelter this morning I had to monitor a guy slumped in the shower so fucked up he had no idea how to get undressed. Or dressed. He tried to do both. He had no idea how to put on shoes. Buttons confounded him. It was sad. I was also freaked out that I might possibly have to do CPR on the dude. I did not want to do the breathing component of CPR on him.

    Don’t know what it was. I don’t think it was alcohol. I don’t think it was meth. It doesn’t really matter.

    Everybody gets a pat down search on entry. People can and do sneak in those tiny baby bottles of booze. If you’re savvy you could probably sneak in a half pint if the person patting you down isn’t paying good attention. Nothing bigger.

    Dude was not giving off meth behavioral vibes either. Maybe K? Don’t know. He was profoundly fucked up. Didn’t know how buttons or shoes work – fundamental, basic knowledge a kindergartener has befuddled him.

    A bit sad, I guess, but mostly clinical with a big touch of negative judgement.

    He kept breathing and survived for the hour and a half for the EMTs to show up. The main FD station is about 30 yards from the shelter. You could throw a rock and hit it easily. I could walk there in twenty seconds.

    Homeless folks are the lowest priority.

    I said before I was sad. I really wasn’t. It was closer to pity verging on disdain.

    Eventually, DMFD paramedics put him on a stretcher and carted him away.

  45. de stijl says:

    @Kathy:

    Chicken is basically dinosaur.

    1
  46. Kathy says:

    @Beth:

    I would love to see a list arranged by year of the richest ten people in America between the 1880s and today. I’ve yet to find something similar. I think it would show lots of billionaires, adjusted for inflation, in the gilded age. And fewer in the 1945 to 1975 period. This would make for a correlation between capital accumulation and overall prosperity.

    Which is pretty much common sense. While the wealth of a country is not fixed, and trends upwards over time, it is finite. If a greater percentage of it accumulates at the top, the rest have to make do with less.

    There are tons of confounders, not least technological progress. While healthcare may be more expensive and cause more financial problems now than in, say, the 1960s, it is also much better. or while air travel is an uncomfortable, stressful, and overall unpleasant experience these days, more people can afford to fly.

    So, it’s not that simple. But it’s undeniable that one person working one job made enough to afford a house and support a family decades ago, while two people working two jobs have trouble doing so today.

    2
  47. de stijl says:

    @Gustopher:

    Terry Crews. Seemingly good dude who gives off good vibes. Already was President in Idiocracy. Solid professional.

    If we now need a celebrity President going forward, my first choice is Terry Crews.

    2
  48. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Lucysfootball:

    And by dignity, he means to treat them as if they are subhuman.

    Well, yes, but there is a scripture verse about this, you know. Right in the Sermon on the Mount, Matt. 5:43, it says:

    “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy.’

    How can you possibly expect him to not obey God’s word when it says that in so many words? Keeping the faith. Yeah, that’s the ticket!

    1
  49. Jen says:

    The House Ethics committee deadlocked on the release of the Gaetz report.

    This SCREAMS that it’s a bad report. If it wasn’t a big deal, they’d release it. I hope the Senate holds firm on requiring FBI vetting of this dipsh!t.

    5
  50. Kathy says:

    @Gustopher:
    @de stijl:

    Beef this time.

    I’ve made burgers and other dishes with ground chicken and ground turkey (not at the same time), and I don’t much care for the results overall.

    On other things, a coworker has to fly to Merida tomorrow, and return the same day. return flights were few, and too early for his schedule. So I found him a return flight to his majesty’s boondoggle, otherwise known as Felipe Angeles Airport, too far from the city to be a city airport.

    Two things are odd: 1) the Aeromexico itinerary read MEX-NLU (the IATA codes for both Mexico City airports). 2) The travel agency’s voucher reads “Felipe Angeles Santa Lucia AFB” (air force base).

  51. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    Well, shit. And double shit. The report must be even more revolting than we could imagine. PLEASE…someone leak the whole thing NOW.

    4
  52. inhumans99 says:

    @Beth:

    You said: I would not be surprised in the least if Trump has Biden arrested and protestors shot. If that happens it’s jover.(end copy/paste)

    Not going to happen, much like our fantasy of Trump being sent to jail instead of his being re-elected this is a right-wing/MAGA fantasy that will not happen. As someone who is not a betting man, I would put money on this scenario not coming to fruition.

    President Biden is someone who was a long term member of Congress, a VP, and up until Trump takes the oath with his hand on a bible (or The Diary Of Hitler, or whatever book he wants to put his hands on while taking the oath), the acting President of the United States. There are Secret Service members and other members of his security detail that would draw their weapons if Trump sympathetic members of law enforcement try to put Biden in cuffs for no reason other than Trump said so.

    Just no…not going to happen, Trump may get Congress to agree to try and impeach President Biden, but who cares, even if enough members of the Democratic side of Congress agreed with enough GOPers to actually succeed in impeaching President Biden. Seriously, let them impeach President Biden, the dude is old and will be under in-home hospice care or something like that soon enough, his being impeached just doesn’t ruffle any feathers of mine, if it makes Trump/MAGA, and the GOP feel a sense of accomplishment in impeaching President Biden, they can have it.

    1
  53. JohnSF says:

    @Beth:

    That’s an easy question to answer, almost none. Also, of the rational actors remaining, the ones on the right will be terrified of getting murdered and the ones on the left won’t have a voice.

    In my more pessimistic moments I might tend to agree.

    OTOH, the prospects of a dollar crisis demolishing their assets might tend to concentrate a lot of billionaire minds on twisting whatever elbows are available, and paying out what they might need to pay.

    Especially if the Donald starts f@cking with the Fed.

    There’s always the 25th Amendment, after all.
    Trump might be unwise to trust J.D. over much; or that the Supremes will be loyal to him personally.

    I also think the upcoming confirmation process may be critical: will Johnson collaborate in trying to shut it down? If so, will Thune cooperate with Johnson?

    Gabbard and Gaetz are the key ones, perhaps?
    Will Trump sacrifice them for others at least semi-palatable?

    And there’s always inertia: imo if Trump takes down the Atlantic Alliance and the rest of the basis of the US post-war financial/economic/military hegemony, it will take more than the rest of Trump’s term for the European outcome to become clear.

    It’s Trump’s successors who may need to deal with the possible emergence of a new European SuperPower that has a potential to rival the US and China.

    In the shorter term, Labour is trying to mend fences with the EU and European countries various. But it’s constrained by its desire not to rub against the Brexit ulcer overtly, given vote patterns in marginals.

    Currently the Westminster hunch seems to be, try to make use of the Brexit position to try for free-trade deals with both Brussels and Washington, and try to dodge the flak on both sides.
    Might work; might not.

    Anyway, don’t despair: UK citizenship based on Scottish ancestry doesn’t mean you necessarily have to live in Scotland.
    (Though Edinburgh is pretty cool; in both senses, lol)
    London might suit; but it’s damn pricey.
    Brighton maybe?
    Arguably one of the best vibe places in England.
    Also, Bristol.

    Personally, I’d generally take Spain over UK if the weather is an issue.
    Especially right now: we’ve got an unusual cold snap for November.
    Snow and freezing for several days.
    While Barcelona tomorrow is 20C and sunny.
    Otoh, Spain had some terrible storms and floods on the Med coast lately; seriously bad.

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  54. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy:

    I’m thinking about a confiscatory wealth tax.

    Good luck with that. 🙁

    1
  55. Kathy says:

    @Jen:

    If it wasn’t a big deal, it would be playing on Fox “news” 24/7, and Geatz would be on the grievance circuit with Rogan and others.

  56. Kathy says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Gotta start somewhere.

  57. Scott says:

    @JohnSF: You drove me to look to see if I was eligible for British citizenship. Boy, are those rules convoluted. I don’t think I could determine it without actually applying and seeing what happens. My Dad was born in Edinburgh and came over when he was two. He was granted US citizenship in June 1944 in Plymouth, England while with the US Army. Grandparents were both born in Scotland but never achieved US citizenship while living and dying in the US. So who knows.

  58. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    OTOH, the prospects of a dollar crisis demolishing their assets might tend to concentrate a lot of billionaire minds on twisting whatever elbows are available, and paying out what they might need to pay.

    Especially if the Donald starts f@cking with the Fed.

    What’s the quote, when someone tells you who they are, believe them. We know who he is, we need to start believing him. Look, I get it, no one wants to think though the implications of this, but it’s here.

    Here’s a confounding factor for you: I suspect that a large portion of the billionaire class in the US doesn’t actually give a shit about their fortunes; they are religious zealots. They think that god handed them that money and god will save them from from anything bad. On top of that, almost all of the billionaires have convinced themselves they are immune from everything.

    As for citizenship, mine is based on my dad being born in Peterborough. I will not be returning to that ancestral homeland. The funny thing is that my dad and aunts despised England. The only thing they hated more than England were the Scots and the Irish. They all left in the 70s. My dad never went back and has gone fully MAGA. Anyway, my solicitor has all the stuff for my UK passport. She said that the best way to do things was to get my partner’s work visa first then when I’m there apply for my passport. The only bad part of that is we’ll have to live in London. “Bad”. Then the plan is to move to Edinburgh.

    There’s always the 25th Amendment, after all.
    Trump might be unwise to trust J.D. over much; or that the Supremes will be loyal to him personally.

    I don’t trust the 25th route. He’s gonna have to be full on toast for them to pull that lever. The second they do that ALL the knives are coming out and if he gets on tv and says that it was a coup the MAGAs are gonna go bonkers.

    I also think the upcoming confirmation process may be critical: will Johnson collaborate in trying to shut it down? If so, will Thune cooperate with Johnson?

    Gabbard and Gaetz are the key ones, perhaps?
    Will Trump sacrifice them for others at least semi-palatable?

    I’m gonna go with absolutely, most likely and no, he’ll force them through. If he lets any of them tell him no he’ll look weak and he’s going to do whatever it takes not to look weak. I mean, we already know he’s weak, but he’s an idiot.

    @inhumans99:

    One of us will be right, and one of us will be wrong. I hope I’m wrong.

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  59. Beth says:

    @Scott:

    As I understand it, this is the basic gist if you were born before 1983:

    You may automatically be a British citizen if you were born before 1 January 1983 and:

    you were born outside the UK
    your father is British
    When you were born, your father must have been all of the following:

    a citizen of the United Kingdom and Colonies
    married to your mother
    able to pass on his citizenship to you
    Your father could pass on his citizenship to you if he was one of the following:

    born or adopted in the UK
    given citizenship after applying for it in his own right (not based on having a British parent)
    working as a Crown servant when you were born (for example in the diplomatic service, overseas civil service or armed forces)

    My biggest snag was that I was a bastard (bastrix? Illegitimate child) when I was born. My bacon was saved by Illinois being a progressive powerhouse that basically did away with illegitimacy like 3 months before I was born. Once my parents married that went away. That was a horrible couple of days figuring that out.

  60. Scott says:

    @Beth: I guess my question comes down to: Did my father lose his British citizenship when he accepted US citizenship? If not, then I think I’m eligible.

  61. Beth says:

    @Scott:

    JohnSF might have a better idea, but I don’t think so. I think the UK is like the U.S. where you have to actively renounce your citizenship. I could be wrong though.

  62. Jen says:

    @Scott: My husband did not lose his British citizenship when he became a US citizen.

  63. Kathy says:

    @Scott:
    @Beth:
    @Jen:

    Until relatively recently, many countries did not allow dual citizenship. I think most of them do so now.

    A friend of mine born in Mexico City inherited French citizenship from his parents. At age 18 he had to formally resign his French or Mexican citizenship, he couldn’t hold both. Mexico does allow dual citizenship now.

    I’ve no idea what the situation was in America, though it does now. Some hasty online searching suggests it wasn’t allowed until the late 60s or early 70s.

  64. Erik says:

    @de stijl: “hands only” (chest compressions only) CPR is now recognized as acceptable, and even preferable for lay rescuers, so just “push hard push fast” if you find yourself in that situation

    hands only CPR

  65. Mister Bluster says:

    @Erik:..CPR
    I clicked on your link and got this message:

    Sorry, your request has failed. Please return to the home page and try again later.

  66. Erik says:

    @Mister Bluster: huh, it worked for me. Sorry about that. Here’s the whole URL:
    https://cpr.heart.org/en/cpr-courses-and-kits/hands-only-cpr/hands-only-cpr-resources

    You can also do a search for “compression only CPR” or “Hands only CPR” if you want to read some of the scientific literature on it as well as various commentary. It’s a big change so there’s a lot of info

  67. rondo1342 says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    As I said on an earlier post on “fascism” I said I probably wouldn’t reply…..but I couldn’t resist…

    “I wonder if @James and @Steven are concerned for their jobs. This blog could be ‘problematic,’ in both military and academic circles.”

    I won’t lose any sleep if James and Steven are kicked out of their taxpayer funded sinecures….and yes, I say this as a retired USAF Lt Col, (ca 2013)….the DC grift is deep……I have steadfastly refused to work (and I use that word loosely) for the fed gov’t since…..yeah, yeah….I got my retirement, after bouncing around Korea three times, Iraq in ’04 and Afghanistan in ’06…..yes, some of us Air Force turds did time in the desert, believe it or not

  68. rondo1342 says:

    @rondo1342:

    Bah! Keyboard typo….. “believe it or not” was what I meant to say

  69. Mister Bluster says:

    @Erik:..CPR

    New link works. Thank you.

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