Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, June 17, 2026
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38 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
This strikes me as a positive development. Advertised air fares in the EU must be the ones that include a carry on bag.
Despite O’Leary’s rant in the piece, given my experience and the rush to secure overhead bin space, and given fees for checked luggage, it should benefit more people to know at the start of booking what a ticket with a carry on bag costs, rather than to find out later by adding a bag fee to the fare.
Note, too, airlines can sell fares without a bag, by offering a discount if you choose not to take one onboard. I wonder how that will play out. Suppose right now a carry on bag costs €20 (just as an example) on top of the bare fare of, say, €50. That’s €70 all told. So the fare marketed now would be €70 in this example.
How big a discount will you get? One assumes €20, to keep things equal. I foresee a lot less now. Say €0.01, since now it costs the airlines money to let you fly without a bag. But that would be too shameless. Still, I’m sure carry on bag fees will drop, a lot.
The details of the actual Iran agreement have finally been leaked
Not to be too jargony, but this deal sucks shit right from the butthole.
(You aren’t the only one who can turn a phrase, Michael.)
-US immediately drops its blockade
-Iran opens up the strait within 30 days
-Israel stops it’s campaign in Lebanon immediately
-no mention at all of irans missiles or regional militias. They have a free hand.
-US releases all frozen assets immediately, ends all sanctions, promises no new sanctions, and will also give *at least* a third of a trillion in reparations
-Iran promises to discuss creating a plan to remove their nuclear materials in the next 60 days.
@Neil Hudelson: Further analysis from ISW including a handy side by side comparison chart/table of Agreement text, American media interpretation and interpretation from American and Iranian officials:
Bottom line: Not only do the parties seem to not have an agreement but don’t even agree about the agreement.
@Neil Hudelson:
Not part of the agreement, but a result of it nonetheless: 1) the domestic position of the Iranian hardliners is strengthened immeasurably; 2) Israel is diplomatically isolated for now
#1 is very bad; #2 is fully deserved, but very, very bad for Israel.
ETA: In the grand scheme of things, probably still better than no deal at all.
@Scott: Link: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2026/
@Neil Hudelson:
Ah, this marks it as an Authentic Taco Product.
The MoU = a deal to make a deal that is loaded with vague terms and appears to be dependent upon a non party’s (Israel) cooperation and participation. The 80 year old mental patient got bored. “On to Cuba!”
@Scott:
Iran declares the main channel open, but shippers are reluctant due to suspected mines. Iran offers, for a fee, passage across the northern channel.
Canada Immigration (IRCC) laid an egg over the weekend.
For some context, the newish C3 law allows Citizenship by Descent, and the Canadian Supreme Court has ruled that one can go back as many generations as you wish to show that you are a Canadian citizen. This has created tens of thousands of applications for a Citizenship Certificate, mostly from the US, and has been a financial boon to companies like Ancestry.com as people search their family history for documents proving unbroken chains back to Canada.
Well, over the weekend, an e-mail went out to at least several thousand of these new citizens, explaining that their Citizenship Certificate has been “suspended” and that they would be required to mail it back to IRCC. We suspect that some applications may have been approved without the required documentation — or they have retroactively changed their standards.
But nobody knows for sure. Not IRCC staff, not the Canadian lawyers, not the passport office – nobody. Many people have their certificates suspended, but have been issued Canadian passports, which remain valid – they think. Others, people who have moved after being proclaimed new Canadian citizens, now have been told they are suspended and not to leave the country.
When people call in to the IRCC (you have to use a Canadian phone number to call in, the workaround is to call the Ontario airport and press the button to get to the IRCC from their phone tree), many of the staff are unaware the e-mail even went out. Apparently their computer system doesn’t have a “suspended” status – only approved, pending, or revoked – so the “suspended” people show up as revoked with notes added to say they are “suspended”.
It’s a complete shitshow. People have upended their lives, sold houses, pulled their kid from school, hired movers, etc. on the strength of the IRCC approval.
As a side note, we have our own application in process as a backup plan if the US continues down the current path.
“Peace, order, and good government” (POGG) is enshrined in Section 91 of the Constitution Act, 1867, but I’m not sure they are living up to that standard at the moment.
I just dreamt last night (really early in the morning) that Trump died.
Honestly, I’m still not sure the entire Trump presidency isn’t some bizarre dream from which I’m about to wake up.
@Neil Hudelson:
Is the MOU or any subsequent agreement legally enforceable?
Even if the MOU or any subsequent agreement were approved by the US Congress or the Iranian Parliament – isn’t it just an executive (political) agreement that can be reversed anytime in the future?
(I’ve wondered how a country can be held to a promise to NEVER (ever, ever,) do something?) Iran (supposedly) will reap benefits only when they fulfill commitments, how can you fulfill a “never” committment?
@Scott:
As I understand it, the navigable shipping lanes (at least for large ships) are all in the Oman territory, is that not correct?
@Bobert:
https://outsidethebeltway.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/image-20-1024×774.avif
Look at the image at the link.
At the narrowest point they are on the Omani side, but farther west the are on the Iranian side.
ETA: The shipping lanes are reportedly mined. The current Iran controlled traffic scheme is farther north, between Qeshm, Larak and Hormuz islands.
The following is an interesting read, compares Hitler’s failure in WW2 to the various Trump/Netanyahu failures in Iran, based on similar failures of methodology.
“Jackie Singh”
@Neil Hudelson: The version I saw yesterday said 300 billion in “financing” arranged by the US and the GCC, not payments. I’m not sure what we’re sorta, kinda promising. I find “financing” more credible simply because it would provide more opportunities for grifting by Trump and MBS.
Along those lines, I saw a substack piece, that I can’t now find, talking about “The Line”, the zoomy high tech city planned by MBS as part of his whole “NEOM” project for a post-oil KSA. Said the plans for the city, and the whole NEOM project, are pretty much collapsing. I find little published on this whole thing. MBS’ grandiose plans always felt like a con to keep the citizenry quiet while MBS et al salted away money overseas.
@Tony W:
What a radical idea. What kind of commie hippies are those Canadians?
@Scott: @Neil Hudelson:
“Link”
ETA: There are so many versions of this online that I don’t really care what ultimately gets signed. My plan is just watch what actually happens.
Fatso is a complete incompetent but at least he managed to bring the reflecting pool to life. Oh…wait…
@Daryl: It has a lot of life! And the life has to be killed. So Trumpian!
And the hydrogen peroxide they dumped in yesterday has succeeded in clearing just a border around the pool. I saw an art person comparing the results to either a Rothko or Josef Albers.
It really is astonishing how pretty much every project the President undertakes fails so spectacularly.
@charontwo:
Neglecting for the moment that either inbound or outbound lanes might be mined….
The designated OUTBOUND traffic appears to be wholly in Omani waters. What would it benefit the Iranians to prevent INBOUND traffic?
Regarding mining of either lane: Unless the mines are radio controlled (that is activated by “radio”, ships have been traversing the outbound lanes as they (and their insurers) are willing to taken that risk. (since none of the ships that have exited the Persian Gulf and are now anchored beyond straits (there blockaded by the US) have encountered mines, what can we say about mines in the Outbound lanes? (Could the US be “looking” for mines that are not there ?)
To add a bit of levity to everyone’s day, apparently the Scots have been drinking Boston dry…one bar (The Black Rose) has been in business for 50 years and never before ran out…it is just delightful to hear all of the Scottish accents!
@Bobert:
-) Both inbound and outbound lanes are in “Iranian” waters between Forur and Tunb al Kubra Islands. Tunb as Sugra and Tunb al Kubra islands are disputed between UAE and Iran but occupied by Iran.
-) I am not aware any recent shipping has used the shipping lanes, the traffic authorized by Iran has sailed farther north near the Iran coast, between Qeshm, Larak and Hormoz islands. Reportedly “black ships” (ships with their transponders turned off) have been sneaking out, likely with U.S. help, by hugging the Omani coast. So if no one is using the shipping lanes they might well could be mined.
@Bobert:
That is ultimately the more important traffic.
-) The onshore storage tanks are full, full oil production can not resume until they can be emptied into empty tankers.
-) People need to eat, several of the GCC rely on food imports through the waters.
Why do you suppose the U.S. is blockading inbound shipping to Iranian ports?
The president, gasping for air like a dropped goldfish, is now threatening Mexico.
@Jen:
Thousands of Scottish fans are having their photos taken in front of Jobi’s Liquors.
Apparently “jobbie” is Scottish slang for “feces.”
@Bobert:
Reporting on the strait reopening from France 24 — What happens when the Strait of Hormuz re-opens?:
@charontwo:
I seem to recall breathless announcements that oil fields would be permanently damaged and/or pipes would explode within days if the Iranian storage tanks were full.
Why do I suppose that the US is (also) blocking inbound shipping of goods to Iranian ports….. because bullies can be counted on to punch below the belt.
@Jen: Trump’s handling of Iran should put to rest any notion that there’s a danger of him taking over a country, whether that be Greenland or Mexico or Cuba or anywhere else. He’s willing to bomb places and commit mass murder–no doubt about it. But he’s unwilling to do a full-scale invasion anywhere, at least in part because he senses the blowback it would receive from his own base (he may also realize how monumentally hard such a task would be; he’s nothing if not lazy). The Iran War has made that abundantly clear.
@Kylopod: Honestly, the whole “their president is a very scared woman” ticked me off more than his hollow threats. He is just the most colossally insecure person ever.
Our President thinks we are all as stupid as his kids. I watched some of his press conference and was struck by both his stupidity AND the timidness of the 4th estate.
@Kylopod: Somebody cracked that Greenland should declare war on us, hoping to get a deal as good as Iran.
(Anybody but me old enough to remember the Dutchy of Grand Fenwick in The Mouse that Roared?)
@gVOR10:
I am. Funny, but I’ve been thinking about that movie a lot lately.
@Scott: They may be knowingly participating in Kabuki theater. The Iranians all but certainly know the “$300 billion” is baloney and the sanctions, if removed, can be reinstated on a POTUS whim at any time. They are dealing with two outlaw/rogue states that do not honor treaties or their words, and openly try to assassinate the negotiators during negotiations. “Deals” with such people are merely for appearances. All that matters is what people do, not what they say.
To paraphrase Axel Rose: “In the jungle you take things day by day.”
@gVOR10:
I saw it when I was a kid, far too young to understand much beyond the fact that Peter Sellers played three characters, one of them a duchess.
I do know what it’s about now—a country waging war with the intent of losing so that they’ll benefit from the rebuilding process. It’s based on a novel. And if you think about it, it’s kind of a version of the same plot that was later used in The Producers.
He signed the agreement at the Palace of Versailles.
I am speechless. Does no one on his team know any history?
@dazedandconfused:
In a 1980’s Doonesbury strip, the new George Will quote boy told the quote supervisor that he’d heard the previous quote boy was fired for quoting rock lyrics. We should have no such limitations.
@Jen:
I was just about to post about it. This post on Bluesky sums it up.
He probably was impressed by the ostentatious display of wealth of the palace.