Obama’s Job Approval Continues To Plummet Despite Jobs Plan Push
The President's jobs push isn't doing much to help his job approval numbers so far.
The President’s Thursday speech and the ongoing push to promote the American Jobs Act don’t seem to be having much of an impact on the President’s job approval numbers:
A majority of Americans don’t believe President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs plan will help lower the unemployment rate, skepticism he must overcome as he presses Congress for action and positions himself for re- election.
The downbeat assessment of the American Jobs Act reflects a growing and broad sense of dissatisfaction with the president. Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy by 62 percent to 33 percent, a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 9-12 shows. The disapproval number represents a nine point increase from six months ago.
The president’s job approval rating also stands at the lowest of his presidency — 45 percent. That rating is driven down in part by a majority of independents, 53 percent, who disapprove of his performance.
(…)
The poll hands Obama new lows in each of the categories that measures his performance on the economy: only 36 percent of respondents approve of his efforts to create jobs, 30 percent approve of how he’s tackled the budget deficit and 39 percent approve of his handling of health care.
The Bloomberg also finds that a majority of Americans, including 56% of Republicans, don’t believe that the President’s jobs plan will do little to reinvigorate the economy and spur hiring or increase economic growth. That number reflects an overall trend among Independents in the polls toward turning sour on the Obama Administration:
On the economy, 29 percent of independents approve of the job Obama is doing while 66 percent disapprove. Obama is weakest among independents when it comes to his ability to reduce the deficit — under a quarter of those respondents approve of his job in that category, while 67 percent disapprove. On job creation, 30 percent of independents approve of Obama’s efforts while 63 percent disapprove. He scored slightly better among independents on health care with 34 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving.
Forty-six percent of independents say they definitely won’t vote to re-elect the president, compared to 21 percent who definitely will support him. In 2008, Obama was backed by 52 percent of independent voters, compared to 44 percent who backed Republican nominee John McCain, an Arizona senator, according to exit polls.
That’s a huge problem for the President, and one that has only seemed to have gotten worse as time has gone on, as this chart shows:
The Bloomberg numbers are backed up by a newly released National Journal poll:
In the poll, there was no major demographic group in which a majority of those surveyed said that Obama’s economic policies have improved the economy. Even among African-Americans, just 40 percent said that Obama’s efforts had improved conditions. He inspired even fainter praise among other groups central to his coalition, including adults under 29 (just 25 percent of whom said he had improved things), independents (18 percent), and college-educated white women (also 18 percent). Hispanics were cool, too.
Indeed, there was little difference on this crucial assessment between groups that favored Obama last time and those that resisted him, such as white men without a college education (just 16 percent better) and white seniors (15 percent better). Whites earning more than $75,000 annually were somewhat more positive than lower-income whites, but nearly half of both groups said that his policies had worsened conditions.
And a new CNN poll:
President Barack Obama’s disapproval rating has reached a new high of 55% while the number of Americans who think he is a strong leader has dropped to a new low, 48%, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday.
And a familiar pattern in public opinion on Obama again asserts itself: Americans don’t like his track record on major issues while they continue to like him personally. Nearly eight in 10 respondents say Obama is likeable; large majorities believe he is compassionate, hard-working, and has a vision for the country’s future. Three-quarters think he fights for his beliefs.
But only 39% approve of how he is handling unemployment, and just 36% approve of the way he is handling the economy, not surprising when more than eight in 10 think the economy is in poor shape.
Opinion on Obama’s economic track record is mixed, however. While fewer than one in 10 (9%) think his policies have made the economy better, about four in 10 (39%) credit them with preventing the economy from being even worse than it is today. On the other side, 37% say Obama has made economic conditions worse. Fifteen percent think his policies have had no effect.
Overall, 55% now say they disapprove of how he is handling his job as president. That’s one point higher than the 54% disapproval rating he routinely hit in polls taken in July and August. Forty-three percent now say they approve of how Obama is handling his job overall. That is not an all-time low for him; he hit 42% a year ago. Six in 10 say Obama has fallen short of their expectations.
Perhaps most surprising, though, is the extent to which this job approval dive is starting to show up in places that one would think to be pro-Obama. In New York’s Ninth Congressional District, for example, which a Republican won yesterday for the first time since Warren Harding was a candidate for President, President Obama’s job approval number was down to 43% in a recent poll, which would explain why neither the President nor anyone connected with the Administration was brought in to campaign for the Democratic candidate. In a recent poll in New Jersey, which hasn’t gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1988, the President’s approval/disapproval numbers were at 52/44. In Pennsylvania. which many pundits believe is a must-win state for the Democrats in 2012, the President’s job approval in two recent polls from Franklin & Marshall College and Muhlenberg are at 34% and 35% respectively. Things aren’t much better in another delegate rich state, Florida where the Presidents job approval number is at 37%. The President is even having trouble in California, which has been something of a sold blue state for the past twenty years:
Concern about the economy has pushed President Barack Obama’s approval rating below 50 percent in California, a state assumed to be an easy win for him in next year’s presidential election.
Obama carried California in the 2008 election but Field Poll findings released on Wednesday show he is having trouble in the most populous U.S. state, where most disapprove of his handling of the economy and just 46 percent of registered voters now support his performance as president.
It is the first time since Obama took office that his approval rating has slipped below 50 percent in the poll, which
showed an 8 percentage point decline since June.
The percentage of California voters disinclined to re-elect Obama was 44 percent — compared with 40 percent in June and March — while 49 percent are inclined to vote for him next year, unchanged from June and March.
“Most would consider this a reliably blue (Democratic) state and if he’s having problems here it’s fairly ominous for his standing in the rest of the nation,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
The poll showed 54 percent of California voters disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy, compared with 40 percent who approve and 6 percent with no opinion.
Now Obama is likely to still come out on top in state’s like California and New Jersey (Pennsylvania is another matter, and a state that will be heavily contested), but if he’s having trouble in these Democratic strongholds, then he’s going to be having more trouble in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada, which is where the 2012 election may well end up being decided. In any case, though, the only thing the President’s jobs plan push seems to be doing is energizing his supports. While that’s important, it’s not going to be enough to pull him over the finish line in 2012.
Despite the best (or worst) efforts of innumerate fringe right bloggers, Gallup has Obama’s approval rating up 5 points since he announced his jobs bill.
Obama pushes a worthless jobs plan and you act surprised that his approval numbers are plummeting? What is with you?
@ponce: However that is not reflected in the other polling which is Doug’s point. I think that most people are tuning out Obama by this point.
-Polaris
I think people have simply lost faith in politicians in general – not that I think this is a bad thing though. There is no magic solution. A jobs bill will be costly no matter how we “pay” for it, assuming it ever materializes and assuming the jobs it promises ever materialize. The stimulus plan didn’t stimulate and the jobs bill probably won’t create jobs. The rest is just free air time for the windbags in DC.
Wrong.
Rasmussen has Obama’s approval at 45% today, the exact same as it was a year ago
http://tinyurl.com/5krqjz
James has post up today about politeness in online debates, so I will simply let the facts counter Doug’s lies.
@Polaris:
Correct. Even, it seems the press that went to bat for Obama, knows it’s over. Their laughter at the spin says it all.
Look, gang, it’s this simple… while the press likes to spin this as a reflection of Obama’s popularity, the voters now see clearly that Obama is not the underlying cause of our current problems. Our current problems are being caused instead by the liberal mantra, to which Obama and all the remaining Democrats subscribe. It’s a rejection of that mantra and the downright stupid policies that spring from it, and not Obama personally, that is being reflected in the polls.
Now, staunch Democrats may well blame Obama, and try to cast him as inept…but why? After all, he enacted all the nonsense that liberals have been having wet dreams over for decades now. And he’s still at it… this “jobs bill” is little more than the same BS he’s been pushing for years… Exactly what has not worked so often before… tax increases and government give-aways. Why would they blame Obama for that? Because it’s easier for their lack of mentality to blame Obama than it is to contemplate the idea that the cause of the failure is Democrat policies. Want proof? Look at how vehemently they deny that there’s any similarity between the failures under Jimmy Carter, and failures under Barack Hussein Obama.
Getting the picture?
“Obama’s Job Approval Continues To Plummet Despite Jobs Plan Push”
DESPITE????? his so called jobs bill? Perhaps BECAUSE of his STIMULUS Lite is more like it.
They STILL don’t get it.
Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky said “I’ll put it this way. You don’t deserve to keep all (your earned income) of it and it’s not a question of deserving because what government is, is those things that we decide to do together.”
Keep that goin Jan until November 2012. Thats a winning plan.
@ponce:
Perhaps that is the union voters looking for more of the Obama gravy train contracts.
Solyndra, Fast & Furious, Gibson Guitar, all will be a factor in the election to come. Perhaps in the trials to come.
What was George W. Bush’s approval rating at the end of his administration? A quick check of Gallup shows Bush II hit 44% in mid-September 2006 and was below 40% for the rest of his term, spending 2008 bouncing between the high 20s and low 30s.
Given that the economy sucks, why is a falling approval rating for the President on the economy considered especially noteworthy? What’s actually amazing is that AS BAD AS THINGS ARE, his overall approval rating is as high as it is.
Mike
As far as the jobs bill goes, it’s not likely to make a lot of difference to the election unless it’s passed. If it’s not passed, it’s just one more thing Washington couldn’t get done, as it’s difficult for most voters to properly evaluate competing claims about a bill like this. I don’t expect Obama’s approval ratings to change much unless the economy does.
Sam,
I think the fringe right’s hatred of Obama makes it hard for them to see that he is a decent guy performing his job well.
@ponce:
Decent is even arguable and performing well is right if you agree with his failed policies.
“Obama to Tout Jobs Act at Company that Outsources
President Obama today is visiting a small North Carolina manufacturing company that has outsourced half its workforce to Costa Rica and whose president is a Democratic politician who has contributed $2,000 to Obama.
WestStar Precision, a machine manufacturing firm headquartered in the Raleigh-Durham area, has a second plant located in San Jose, Costa Rica. There are 24 employees at each site, according to an NBC affiliate in Raleigh.
Ironically, Obama is traveling to the company’s headquarters to tout his new proposal to create jobs in the United States.
While he’s there, he can thank WestStar President Ervin Portman for his financial assistance.
According to the website Opensecrets.org, Portman, calling himself “Erv,” donated $1,000 to Obama on August 10, 2008. In a separate filing, “Ervin” Portman reported donating $1,000 to help fund Obama’s Inauguration.
Portman, who sits on the Board of Commissioners for Wake County, N.C., has also been a major contributor to other Democratic candidates.
In 2009-2010, Portman gave $5,000 to Democratic North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall’s failed campaign to unseat Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). He also donated $250 to the successful 2008 campaign of Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.).
Portman’s company makes no secret of its outsourcing, touting its Costa Rican plant on its website.
Our new office and manufacturing facility in San Jose, Costa Rica, also has approximately 10,000 sq. ft. with similar equipment as the main office. This facility is designed for high volume production to support our international and domestic clients.”
http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2011/09/14/obama-tout-jobs-act-company-outsources/
And you wonder why no one listens or beLIEves any longer?
@Sam: “Decent is even arguable and performing well is right if you agree with his failed policies.”
And if Obama loses in 2012 and the GOP take over the Senate…then what? What exactly do even Republicans think they’re going to do to improve the economy, given that they haven’t had a new economic idea since about 1983? Tax cuts? Budget cuts? Deregulation? Privatizing Social Security and Medicare? That’s going to fix everything?
Mike
Yawn, yet another breathless “plummeting” post. Doug is becoming a caricature on this issue.
RealClearPolitics, a strongly GOP leaning site, runs a running average of all approval polls. Note – its an average, not just highlighting one or two that show movement that one can hype.
The average for Obama JA is 44%, pretty much exactly where it has been for a year and half, except for two bumps upward.
And of course they also reported yesterday about the PPP polls of presidential head to heads – showing Obama beating Romney by 4, beating Perry by 11, and Bachmann by 14.
Tano,
The editorial on RCP is GOP leaining, but the RCP average is not. It’s a raw numerical average of all non-partisan polls, and that’s not really a good way to do the analysis since not all polls are created equal.
The RCP average is shorthand but little more and should be treated as such. The fact that RCP’s editorials are GOP leaning has no reflection whatsoever on the RCP average. In fact RCP does a simple one week time slice and list all polls averaged and they are blind to the source of those polls (except for overt partisanship).
-Polaris
I don’t think that word…”plunge”…means what you think it means.
@Eric Florack:
I actually think you have a reasonable point, as people still like Obama, personally, putting a fly in the ointment of those raving about criticism generated against him as being racist. The main reason behind his low numbers is because of disfavor with his policies, which are basically socially progressive ones.
Love it or loath it, this country remains a center right one. Whenever the politics move to the far left or right it will be cause for discontent.
@jan: There’s plenty of support for Obama’s policies, but the GOP obstruction is making his moderate policies seem extreme. Health care reform was a perfect example of this, Congress passed a center-right plan, but the lack of Republican support made it appear to be a liberal plan. It was considered controversial only because the GOP politicians chose to portray it that way, it wasn’t policy based.
Maybe, if you accept that the definition of “center right” has been moving leftward for decades.
Otherwise, gay marriage wouldn’t have the support of a large majority of Americans…
@Polaris
.I did not claim that the average is biased (it is, btw, but to a rather trivial extent). I mentioned the leanings of the site because I know that there are many people on the right, like you, who are resistant to data unless it is supplied to you by people who are politically correct – i.e. from fellow conservatives.
That is not really true. The time slice is of variable length, averaging about two weeks, and is one of the variables in the average that they play games with. Silly games, because the effect is not great, but if you follow the site regularly, you can notice it. If there are particularly right=favoring polls in the average, they are kept in, sometimes for three weeks or more. Left-favoring polls get cycled out much quicker. In addition, there are sometimes left-favoring polls from outfits that are regular parts of the average, that are inexplicably left out. Another trick is if there is a particularly left-faoring poll, it is offset by some right-favoring poll from an obscure firm that has never before appeared in the average, and never appears again. As I said the net effect of all this is relatively trivial, but it is a bit of a thumb on the scale.
But I am glad to see that you have no issue with my basic point. The really remarkable fact about Obama’s job approval numbers are their incredible stability, and their high floor. I cannot recall another president who essentially never fell down into the thirties (in the average), nor one whose numbers have been so stable for so long. Especially in hard economic times.
Its the great underreported story of politics, but all we get from folks like Doug is their endless attempts to jump on the “plummeting numbers” bandwagon, instead of doing any real analysis.
@Tano:
Considering that he came into office with an approval rating of almost 67%, and a scant 2 1/2 years later is sitting in the low to mid-40s general approval rating, I’d call that plummeting. Heck, his approval on the economy and jobs runs about 10 points under his overall approval ratings.
Unless the GOP nominates someone batshit crazy (Bachmann or Paul) or the economy has a really good rebound (not expected by any experts I’ve read), Obama is a one term President.
@ jan…
yes – for instance, the ACA which is a republican policy. or cap and trade which is a republican policy. or all the nat’l security apparatus he left in place from the bushies. or the largest deficit reduction plan in history which consists of 85% spending cuts and only 15% revenue increases. all very progressive.
the problem you have is that you are so far off to the starboard side that the mast looks like it is stepped on the port rail.
buy a dog, name it Clue, and then you will have one.
Unless the GOP nominates someone batshit crazy
(Bachmann or Paul)(Bachmann or Paul or Perry or Palin)FTFY
@Moderate Mom:
I don’t think you know what you are talking about. Do some research into the dynamics of these numbers, for Obama, and for all other presidents.
All presidents start out with a “honeymoon” period of high approval. Not having done anything yet, the opposition has no focused argument to make. This initial high always fades as the opposition starts to find their voice, whether the President has done well or not. Core party activists are opposed because of their partisan nature, and this is moreso the case with today’s GOP than any other party at any other time in recent history.
The constant stream of articles about “plummeting” numbers are NOT dealing with the dissipation of the original honeymoon approval. They are trying to argue that Obama’s niumbers are plummeting NOW and that is simply not the case.
Thanks for sharing your prediction. It is at odds with almost all the polling that is out there now, but hey, we all feel comforted by wishful thinking….
Oh btw, new Reuters poll out. Obama beats Romney by 6. Perry by 8….
Incisive analysis indeed from bithead – the same rocket scientist who assured us in 2008 that “Obama can’t win”, while predicting that the ’08 Democratic convention would be “a civil war, worse than 1968.”
And who can forget his breathless play by play of the nonexistent McCain surge in the waining days of the ’08 race, based he said on “inside information most people don’t have access to.” (He was cut and pasting the McCain campaign’s desperation press releases)
Oh, and then there was the time he put up about 15 comments telling us how the U.S. Armed Forces are not part of the federal government.
One more point. MM.
Do you realize the implications of this Reuter’s poll’s numbers? Two and half years of really tough economic times, and constantly “plummeting” approval, and the polls show Obama defeats the likely GOP candidates by exactly the same margin as he defeated McCain.
Y’all haven’t gained an inch on him yet.
Tano,
The real poll you should look at is Obama vs a Generic Republican (which Obama does very badly in btw). Right now in the very early part of a primary fight most of the electorate is barely paying attention to the GOP candidates (nor is there any reason they should really). However, given politics today, it’s virtually certain that a person that won’t vote for Obama will vote for pretty much any GOP candidate. Yes a few are radioactive, but a lot less than some here think (I’d put Palin, Gingrich, and Ron Paul into the radioactive category).
-Polaris
Sorry Polaris, I disagree with your assessment of the value of those types of questions. Its a ridiculous hypothetical because incumbents do not run against generics. I think people use these questions to just vent a bit if they are less than enthused with the incumbent, but that says nothing about how they will eventually vote.
Even though, RCP does an average on this question, and it is basically even. More evidence that the “one-term” predictions are quite premature and/or ridiculous.
@Tano:
You keep telling yourself that. At best Obama has a rough go of it and I think he’s rapidly reading dead duck status myself. Remember that Obama only won the country by 7% with an electorate that leaned Dem/Progressive to an unprecedented extent (D+7 most since 1980). Now the electorate looks to be D+1 at best and likely a Push.
-Polaris
Hmmm, lets see, even with your numbers and projections….
Lots to argue with there, but why bother, By your own logic here, it looks like an Obama win by 1 point. And he has barely begun campainging, whereas the GOP has been mounting a non-stop offensive against him for 2 1/2 years. This equals “Dead duck” status?????
Tano,
You are only looking at the crudest evaluation of the electorate. The electorate was far more pro-Obama and pro-Dem than even the D+7 signified. 12% were new voters and they voted Obama over 70-30. It had one of the highest youth turnouts ever, and they voted Obama by similiar margins….this included white young people who Obama has since lost.
It also included the fact that about 8-12 million normally likely republican and republican leaning voters stayed home.
Factor all those things in together and you get an electorate a lot more like 2004 than 2008 and i don’t think Obama wins in a 2004 type election or electorate.
-Polaris
@David M:
Obama saw no bounce from his America Jobs Act. Furthermore as he has taken to the road to hawk his plan to the public, urging people to call their congressment this is the response:
Then there are democrats in Congress who are cited as picking apart Obama’s jobs bill.
As for Obamacare ever being center-right, that’s absolutely bs. It was passed on Christmas Eve, with no republicans voting for it, and has never sustained a high level of public support since it’s passage. Why you think it is a center-right bill is only because it didn’t have the “public option,” incorporated in it, which is what the social progressives pressed for. Currently less people have a health plan than before obamacare was passed. It has been a debacle of the highest order. The general public knows this, while the social progressives keep fiddling away with their misinformation as the economy continues to go south.
Obama’s policies have not worked because they obstructed business and job growth, throwing the deficits and ratios off which have become the chief symptoms of our ailing, stagnant economy. But, you continue to pass the blame on to anyone but Obama and yourselves.
@Polaris: Yeah, as soon as Generic Republican declares, we can all start looking at that poll. Now let’s look at Obama versus actual human beings who could get the nomination. It’s a differentl story.
WR, Generic Republican will declare just as soon as the GOP nomination is wrapped up. That (and Labour Day of 2012) is really when the general electorate starts to pay attention.
-Polaris
@jan: Just wondering — what does it feel like to spend your life as a tool of those who want to destroy the middle class, enrich the ultra rich, and let the poor die in the street? You make all these claims about working in health care, and yet it’s clear you wish death on anyone who isn’t rich — isn’t that a contradiction? Does this ever trouble you when you’re cutting and pasting from Pat Bchanon or some other slug? Or do you just keep on going in hopes that you’ll cash in some day?
Just wondering. I honestly can’t imagine how it feels to support the people who demand we slash taxes on oil companies and wipe out Medicare at the same time.
@WR:
If there is one robot, one programmed artificial intelligence on this site, it’s you. Your posts are all the same, filled with nonsense that doesn’t even qualify for leftist ideology. It’s mainly emotionalism and a completely distorted take on anyone or everyone who doesn’t see the world as you do.
@jan: The majority of Obamacare doesn’t kick in until 2014, so less people having insurance now than a year ago is a pretty good sign the system was in desperate need of reform. Before anyone thinks to try and say the drop in coverage was attributable to Obamacare, economic downturns usually result in less people having coverage. The most interesting part of the recent census data actually showed that Obamacare is already having a positive impact, as coverage increased for young adults (covered by Obamacare already) while all other age groups were decreasing.
Thanks for proving my point, people see unanimous Republican opposition to a moderate health care reform bill and assume it’s much more radical than it is.
@David M:
If you remember congress was getting besieged during their summer townhalls, the DC switchboards etc., people all pleading with Congress not to pass the healthcare bill. The overwhelming public negativity towards this bill is why not one republican voted for it. In essence, the republicans in Congress were listening to and responding to their constituency in voting ‘No’ on health care. The dems, though, who went against their constituency, and voted ‘Yes’ were often the ones voted out of office in the 2010 midterms. Even now, in the republican candidate forums, repealing Obamacare is central in their platform, and is being demanded by not only conservatives but indies and conservative dems as well.
Also, there has been no poll that I’ve seen, since this horrendous plan was passed, showing a majority of people were for it. The ones I’ve seen have always shown a pretty significant margin, anywhere from 54-59%, that favored repeal of Obamacare. Nancy Pelosi once made that ridiculous statement, that “Once you knew what was in the bill you would like it.” Well, the more and more people have found out about it, the more they dislike it.
Here is an example of how this piecemeal health plan, passed by Obama, makes no sense in doing what it is supposed to do — defray costs and help facilitate better healthcare to people.
Also, David, waving pom-poms about the number of young adults, ages 18-26 who have been able to sign on to their parent’s health insurance policies, and then using this statistic to say that healthcare is working is somewhat deceptive.
First off, this age group is the least vulnerable to having health problems. And, the fact that they are being excused from accepting full responsibility for their health care is not a true sign that this health care policy is assisting those who really needed assistance, in the first place.
Basically, The New Republic is groping to find some kind of validating statistic so they could write this erroneous article.
@jan: The townhalls were a joke, remember death panels? The individual pieces of the health care reform were popular when it was passed, only the mandate and the entire bill were not. You said the Dems should have listened to their constituents better, and I agree as that would have likely resulted in a better, less conservative bill. You are aware the polls consistently show more support for keeping/expanding Obamacare than repealing it, aren’t you?
The Republicans decided not to cooperate on health care reform for political not policy reasons. I haven’t seen any evidence the GOP was ever willing to negotiate in good faith and there are plenty of reports of the Democrats offering significant compromises to try and get GOP votes.
@anjin-san: So, be specific… where am I wrong, here? Go ahead. Defend the dear leader.