Last week we saw CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac polls from Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that showed President Obama leading in all three states, today the same group is out with polls in three more battleground states that show slightly better news for Mitt Romney, but as with last week there’s one result that seems like it’s an outlier:
For all of the Democratic attacks painting Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch elitist who will help the rich at the expense of the middle class, he is maintaining the traditional — and sizable — Republican advantage among a politically vital constituency, white working-class voters in the states most likely to decide the presidential election.
And despite Republican efforts to use the weak economy to drive a wedge between President Obama and women on Election Day, the president is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states.
Those findings, contained in the latest batch of Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News swing state polls, highlight the stubborn divisions of this year’s presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states.
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For all of the Democratic attacks painting Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch elitist who will help the rich at the expense of the middle class, he is maintaining the traditional — and sizable — Republican advantage among a politically vital constituency, white working-class voters in the states most likely to decide the presidential election.
And despite Republican efforts to use the weak economy to drive a wedge between President Obama and women on Election Day, the president is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states.
Those findings, contained in the latest batch of Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News swing state polls, highlight the stubborn divisions of this year’s presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states.
But they also help explain the intense efforts of the two campaigns to alter the balance in both groups, which together will go a long way toward determining the outcome.
Mr. Obama’s goal is to keep Mr. Romney from running up huge margins among white working-class voters — defined as those without college degrees and with household incomes of $30,000 to $100,000 — who could give him the edge.
New results from surveys over the past week in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, combined with surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, show that Mr. Romney so far appears to be holding his own with that group, but running no stronger than Senator John McCain did four years ago.
Similarly, Mr. Romney is trying to peel off as many female voters as possible from Mr. Obama’s electoral coalition, hoping to offset the president’s advantages among single and nonwhite women by appealing to married and white women with a message about economic security and pocketbook issues.
But while the poll suggests that Mr. Romney is making inroads among women in Colorado, where he is also showing strength against Mr. Obama by several other measures, support for Mr. Obama among women has otherwise held up in the battleground states. As a result, Mr. Obama has so far been able to stave off bigger losses in the most hotly contested states, in particular among independents, who are divided in Colorado and Wisconsin and supporting Mr. Romney in Virginia, and white men, who are supporting Mr. Romney by double digits over the president in all three states.
The CBS News write-up has the numbers:
Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama’s Colorado coalition from 2008 — college-educated white voters – in play this year.
Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.
In a third important state, Wisconsin, Mr. Obama has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51 percent to 45.
The Colorado number is surprising to say the least. As I noted last week, that state, while somewhat of a swing state in recent elections, still seemed to be far more likely to stay in President Obama’s column than go for Romney this time around. Just yesterday, Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Obama ahead by six points and Rasmussen released a poll showing the race tied 47% to 47%. With the Quinnipiac and PPP polls basically canceling each other out, that puts the RealClearPolitics averageat +1.3% for Obama. However, that number reflects the big uptick for Romney in the Quinnipiac poll so it may not be entirely reliable. Before today, the average lead for Obama in Colorado was outside the margin of error. Moreover, prior to the Quinnipiac poll there hasn’t been a single poll of the state that showed Romney was a measurable lead of any kind. the closest he’s gotten is several polls that have had the race inside the MoE or tied Because of this, Jamelle Boulle is skeptical of the Colorado numbers:
This should make us suspicious. If the race in Colorado were truly a toss-up, then Romney should be ahead as much as he is behind. Moreover, it’s unusual for a candidate to gain ground in one state, but stagnate—or even lose—in other, similar states. If Obama is behind in Colorado, then he’s likely slipped among college-educated white voters, who are overrepresented in the state. If that’s true, then you should see similar slippage in Virginia and North Carolina, both states with heavy populations of college-educated whites. As it stands, neither is true (in fact, Obama has gained somewhat among Tar Heels).
This doesn’t show that the new poll is wrong, only that we should view it as one data point among many. And keeping that in mind, the polling in Colorado is still consistent with a slight Obama lead——yesterday, for example, Public Policy Polling showed him with 49 percent to Romney’s 43 percent.
I tend to agree with Boulle. The fact that there’s such a wide discrepancy between this new poll and every poll of the state since February should raise eyebrows and at least cause us to wait until future polls come out to see if Romney is really gaining ground there. Additionally there are some indications that Republicans may have been oversampled in this poll. While I’ve noted before the Party ID isn’t always the most important demographic to look for in a poll, that combined with the odd result suggest that this result is not an accurate reflection of the state of the race.
Turning to Virginia, the poll result finding the President up by four points isn’t out of line with what we’ve been seeing from the Old Dominion. While some recent polls have shown the state tightening from where it was a months or two ago, four points doesn’t seem to me to be egregiously out of line. The Real Clear Politics average here is +3.2% in Obama’s favor, which is well within any applicable margins of error. We’ve known for months now that Virginia was going to be hotly contested this year, and this poll is pretty much telling us the same thing. It’s worth noting, though, that based on the polls listed at RCP, Romney has not led in this state in months other than a highly questionable poll from We Ask America, a company who’s track record has yet to be determined.
That brings us to Wisconsin, where Obama leads by six points. It sometimes puzzles me why Wisconsin is considered to be a swing state by the pundits. Other than a Rasmussen poll in June, there hasn’t been a single poll showing Romney in the lead in the Badger State all years. The main reason people seem to think Romney might have a chance here, it seems, is because of the successes that Republicans had in statewide races in 2010, and the ability with which Scott Walker was able to beat back a recall effort. These points are well taken, but it’s worth remembering that Wisconsin is a state that hasn’t gone for a Republican since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide. Currently,the RCP average is at +6.0 in Obama’s favor. This suggests that, while the state may be more competitive than it has been in recent elections it still seems likely to stay in Democratic hands. More importantly, if it turns out that we get close to the election and find Romney leading or close in Wisconsin polls, then it’s something that ought to worry the Obama campaign because it probably would also mean that Romney is leading or close in states like Michigan and Ohio and that Obama campaign may be headed for a bad day on November 6th.
There doesn’t seem to be any broad conclusions to be drawn from these polls. We already know these states were battlegrounds, and they’re going to stay that way from now until Election Day. What one does notice, however, is that despite poll after poll where respondents say that they are dissatisfied with the state of the country, Mitt Romney has yet to make a breakthrough. The convention will be his big change to try to do that.
