The American people are not at all happy with their President, the polls find. The new NPR/PBS/Marist survey is typical:
Rising inflation, a continuing pandemic, a foreign policy misstep in Afghanistan and Democratic infighting all marred President Biden’s first year, and now a majority of respondents to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll say his first year was a “failure.”
In all, 56% said Biden’s first year in office was a failure, versus just 39% who said it was a success.
What’s more, 54% said he’s not fulfilling his campaign promises, and 52% said he has done more to divide the country than unite it, despite uniting the country being a pillar of Biden’s 2020 presidential run.
As you might expect, the party breakdown is stark:
So, the good news for Biden is that the people he most counts on for support are mostly behind him, with a whopping 80 percent of Democrats happy and a mere 15 percent of them are unhappy. That Republicans are even more united in seeing his administration as a failure is not particularly surprising. But so-called Independents are two-to-one in the failure camp.
The president is clinging to just a 39% overall approval rating, a 36% approval for his handling of the economy and 47% for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Just 30% of respondents said they think the U.S. is headed in the right direction, days before Biden is set to give his first formal State of the Union address.
All are the worst marks of his presidency in the survey.
“These are sort of rock-bottom numbers,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. “It’s about as low as you’re going to see him [Biden].”
Again, this is what we’re seeing across the polling. Here are the RealClearPolitics trendlines:
Yes, it has a slight Republican lean. But the FiveThirtyEight gang is showing almost identical numbers:
Delving deeper into the Marist poll:
Topping Americans’ concerns in the survey is inflation, as 38% said they think it should be Biden’s top priority.
That far outpaces other issues, including the pandemic — which just 11% said they think should be his top priority — voting laws (11%), foreign policy (10%) and violent crime (10%).
The poll was taken before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is unlikely to help Biden. Indeed, his rating was already bad on that front:
Again, here, it’s bad news for Biden: Just 34% approve of how he’s handling the situation, while 50% disapprove.
And, obviously, he’s aware:
The pressing pocketbook concerns of Americans could spell more trouble for Biden if the Ukraine crisis deepens and it means additional pain at the pump.
“I know this is hard and that Americans are already hurting,” Biden said Thursday, after Russia’s invasion. “I will do everything in my power to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump. This is critical to me. But this aggression cannot go unanswered. If it did, the consequences for America would be much worse.”
While Biden bears some responsibility on the inflation front given the trillions that were poured into the economy under the so-called American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the microchip crisis and other supply chain issues are largely outside his control. And, while he’s made some missteps on the pandemic, he’s largely been proactive. Not everyone agrees, clearly.
Seven in 10 respondents said they feel generally optimistic that the end of the pandemic is nearing. And while that optimism is potentially good news for Biden and the country, the president likely won’t benefit politically until inflation and prices come down.
Americans are split on Biden’s handling of the pandemic, which had been a strength of Biden’s through the first half-year of his presidency.
There is a significant gender gap — 53% of women approve of Biden’s handling of it, while 56% of men disapprove.
Presuming there’s not another wave and yesterday’s relaxed mask guidance remains in effect, one imagines that will redound to his benefit, at least with Independents. I don’t think there’s much he can do to move Republicans into his corner.
Biden is having real problems with three key groups — independents, suburban voters and a lack of intensity of support among his base.
1. Just 29% of independents now approve of the job the president is doing. In fact, the percentage of them who disapprove is more than double (64%) the percentage who approve.
That is particularly alarming for Biden, considering he won independents in the 2020 presidential election, and it continues a long trend of the crucial swing group sliding away from Biden in the past six months or so.
2. Just 38% of respondents who live in the suburbs approve of the job he’s doing, down 11 points from December. Critically, especially ahead of the 2022 midterms, he has seen a double-digit decline with suburban women in just the past two months, from 57% to 45%.
3. Compounding his problems, there is strong intensity of disapproval against Biden — about as high as the share who strongly disapproved of then-President Donald Trump. But unlike Trump, Biden is lacking in intensity of support.
In this survey, just 14% strongly approve of the job Biden is doing, worse than at any time for Trump during his presidency.
It’s simply baffling to me that Biden is polling worse than Trump on any metric. But, to the extent “pocketbook” issues are what’s driving the numbers, the economy is worse right now in almost every respect than it was in all but the worst part of the COVID crisis. Again, very little of that is under Biden’s control. But that’s the life of a President: you’re judged on the economy.
The good news for Biden is that we’re still more than eight months away from the midterms and almost three years away from the next Presidential election. That’s a lot of time for the economy to rebound.
Biden has a chance to gain back standing among these voters if they’re presented with an opposing choice in a potential reelection, Miringoff said, considering the president has seen slippage with groups that helped make up the coalition that elected him to office in the first place.
But one thing has become clear, Miringoff added: Biden’s efforts to try to win over Republicans has been a strategic failure.
“The Republicans are not for the getting,” he said.
That’s not surprising, of course, given the deeply polarized political climate although I did think there was some chance that Biden’s decency and personal relationships with Republican Senators could at least make a small dent into the problem.
