AP (“Biden details a 3-phase hostage deal aimed at winding down the Israel-Hamas war“):
President Joe Biden on Friday detailed a three-phase deal proposed by Israel to Hamas militants that he says would lead to the release of the remaining hostages in Gaza and could end the grinding, nearly 8-month-old Mideast war.
Biden added that Hamas is “no longer capable” of carrying out another large-scale attack on Israel as he urged Israelis and Hamas to come to a deal to release the remaining hostages for an extended cease-fire.
The Democratic president in remarks from the White House called the proposal “a road map to an enduring cease-fire and the release of all hostages.”
Biden said the first phase of the proposed deal would would last for six weeks and would include a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
American hostages would be released at this stage, and remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families. Humanitarian assistance would surge during the first phase, with 600 trucks being allowed into Gaza each day.
The second phase would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza.
“And as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, the temporary cease-fire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, ‘the cessation of hostilities permanently,’” Biden said.
The third phase calls for the start of a major reconstruction of Gaza, which faces decades of rebuilding from devastation caused by the war. The 4-1/2 page Israeli proposal was transmitted to Hamas on Thursday.
NYT (“Biden Endorses Israeli Road Map for a Cease-Fire in Gaza“) adds:
“It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Mr. Biden said, speaking from the State Dining Room at the White House.
[…]
“This is truly a decisive moment,” Mr. Biden said. “Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.”
With that statement, Mr. Biden appeared to be revealing his true agenda: making public elements of the proposal in an effort to pressure both Hamas and Israel to break out of a monthslong deadlock that has resulted in the killing of thousands of Palestinians.
American officials have described Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, as interested only in his own survival and that of his family and inner circle, as they presumably operate from tunnels deep under southern Gaza. But officials have also said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has little incentive to move to a real cease-fire, because of the widespread belief in Israel that as soon as the surviving hostages are returned, and a last cease-fire begins, he will most likely lose his fragile hold on power.
Mr. Biden’s remarks came at a pivotal moment in his re-election campaign, a day after his rival, former President Donald J. Trump, was convicted of 34 felony charges. At the same time, he has been facing growing pressure at home over the bloodshed in Gaza, which has led to eruptions on college campuses and on the streets of American cities, and alienated many of his own supporters.
[…]
Hints of differences came almost as soon as Mr. Biden finished speaking. Following his speech, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said the Israeli government was “united in the desire to bring home our hostages as soon as possible.”
But it added that Mr. Netanyahu had stipulated to Israeli negotiators that they could not reach a deal that would end the war before all their goals were achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capacities in Gaza.
“The exact outline that Israel has offered — including the conditional progression from stage to stage — enables Israel to maintain that principle,” Mr. Netanyahu’s office said.
Hamas reacted positively to Mr. Biden’s speech in a statement on social media, saying that it was willing to deal “constructively” with any cease-fire proposal based on a permanent truce, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes and a “serious prisoner exchange.”
Stipulating that I don’t get the Presidential Daily Brief, I’m extremely skeptical of the bold assertion that Hamas is “no longer capable” of carrying out another October 7-style attack. Indeed, I question the wisdom of saying it even if our intelligence community assesses it to be true, given the outrage that would follow if it proves incorrect.
It’s also interesting that this is widely described as an Israeli proposal being endorsed by Biden, even though it’s clear Netanyahu himself doesn’t fully support it. Absent some sort of demobilization and demilitarization plan, I honestly don’t know why the Israeli government would buy off on this. It ends the conflict and gets the hostages back but does nothing to ensure that Hamas doesn’t regroup and re-attack at some point in the near future.
The Biden administration, along with most of the international community and a sizable chunk of the Israeli population, want the war over. Certainly, all of us want the killing of Palestinian civilians to end. But a cessation of conflict that doesn’t come with a resolution of the underlying grievances and that leaves the Hamas leadership in place isn’t a better state of the peace; it’s just a temporary respite from the fighting that gives Hamas a breather.
