Minnesotan Ed Morrisey got an email from Team McCain informing him that the state is “a dead heat” based on a Survey USA poll. Ed then cites some research that Obama is actually dragging Al Franken’s numbers down in the state and muses, “If McCain wins Minnesota, that puts a major dent in Obama’s presidential aspirations.”
Certainly, another 10 Electoral Votes — a swing of 20 — would be helpful. The problem, however, is that Obama’s up 11.5 in the RealClearPolitics average for Minnesota, Obama has never trailed in the state since polling began in May, and the trend followed the national one away from McCain since mid-September. Eight of the last ten polls in the average have Obama up by double digits, with the outliers showing leads of merely 8 and 5.
Further, SurveyUSA appears to be the most erratic poll in the sample by a longshot. Going back to last December, McCain has had leads in precisely four Minnesota polls. All of them are by … wait for it … SurveyUSA.
So, yeah, it’d be sweet if McCain could steal Minnesota. But it’s statistically much more likely that he’ll win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In which case, he won’t need Minnesota.
