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I Guess the Whip Can’t Count

Emmer drops out.

Steven L. Taylor
22

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Via the NYT: Emmer Drops Speaker Bid After Right-Wing Backlash.

Mr. Emmer began Tuesday with a scant victory, winning an internal party nominating contest by a vote of 117 to 97 over a right-wing rival, Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana. The margin reflected that House Republicans were still deeply at odds.

You see, it’s funny because he was the Majority Whip and the Whip’s job is to count votes and make sure the party has what it needs to pass legislation (or, in this case, elect a Speaker).

But, of course, when there are half a dozen plus wannabe leaders, it might mean that your party is in, what’s the word? Oh yes, disarray.

Mr. Emmer began Tuesday by besting six other candidates vying for the job during a series of closed-door votes. Mr. Johnson, a conservative lawyer who is a favorite of the party’s right wing, endorsed Mr. Emmer after his loss, and said he was trying to persuade his colleagues to unite around him.

I would note that in many systems if this was a parliamentary majority that could not pick a government that new elections would have to be called. Alas, the fixed nature of our system has no mechanism to force such an outcome. The inability of the party to govern ought to lead to a recourse to voters.

Likewise, it continues to be true that the Freedom Caucus faction of the GOP is acting almost like another party. But, again, the electoral incentives generated by primaries and the linkages to the presidential contest make an actual schism unlikely.

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22 responses to “I Guess the Whip Can’t Count”

  1. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    Listening to a couple Republican representatives after Emmer pulled out, it is amusing that they keep trying to blame the Democratic Caucus for voting with the Krazy Eights against McCarthy. It should be pointed out that by the same logic, Republicans are keeping Hakeem Jeffries from being Speaker. After all, he has gotten more votes than any Republican.

    12
  2. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    I renew my call to have a fight between all contenders. Last man standing takes the gavel.

    1
  3. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    And another one gone, and another one gone
    Another one bites the dust

    I don’t see how they end the power of the Freedom (sic) Caucus. Normally there’d be bargaining, we’ll give you something you want and you give us something we want. But the Gaetz/Jordan types don’t want anything except reelection, which as you’ve taught us, the Party can’t stop.

    I wish the MSM would, as someone or other said, follow the money. One would normally expect the establishment to cut off the troublemakers major donations. Everybody seems to want to say they have small donors so they’re independent. I doubt that’s true. I know Jordan got big money from Koch. I suspect a lot of GOP money is happy with this deadlock.

    And speaking of another one bites the dust, I expect over on the Open Forum somebody’s already mentioned Mark Meadows has flipped to Smith.

    1
  4. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    @Kathy:

    Last man standing takes the gavel.

    Fine with me. But he’s still gotta get 217 votes on the floor and I believe one member can still move to vacate. I don’t know what they’d have to do to change their suicide pact rules.

    1
  5. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @gVOR10:

    Can’t they change the rules to the winner of a cage match?

    If not, is there one Republican in the House who can get five votes from what passes for his party and all Democrats?

    I’d like to say that absent the above, I can’t see how the GQP ever elects a speaker. Except that wouldn’t be true. Chances are one the krazies can approve of will get the gavel. Why? Because many, if not most, of the rest, do understand there has to be a working House before the government shuts down. They’ll hold their noses, but they’ll vote for the most unqualified, most horrible candidate rather than leave the post vacant past mid-November, never mind past the general election next year.

    1
  6. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    @gVOR10: Is there really any doubt how this will end? The “moderates” will cave

    2
  7. Beth Avatar
    Beth

    Dr. Taylor,

    Regarding the picture for this post:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTtSu2Fld5U

    You missed your calling, that’s all I’m sayin…

    2
  8. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    @MarkedMan:

    Is there really any doubt how this will end? The “moderates” will cave

    I’d like to disagree. I’d really, really, really, like to disagree. I’d love to disagree. But I can’t.

    2
  9. Scott O Avatar
    Scott O

    @Kathy: Is it a fight to the death? I think 5 dead Republican reps would be enough to make Hakeem Jeffries the speaker.

  10. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @Scott O:

    There’s no law that says the law of unintended consequences cannot lead to a good unintended consequence.

    2
  11. Just nutha ignint cracker Avatar
    Just nutha ignint cracker

    The inability of the party to govern ougth to lead to a recourse to voters.

    Sure, but are American voters in gerrymandered districts really going to change the make up of the Congress? Color me skeptical even though only 2 or 3 upsets would really be needed.

    3
  12. Moosebreath Avatar
    Moosebreath

    I’d describe the Republican members of the House using Teddy Roosevelt’s line about Taft (that he has the backbone of a chocolate eclair), but I think it is insulting to desserts.

    1
  13. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    I would note that in many systems if this was a parliamentary majority that could not pick a government that new elections would have to be called. Alas, the fixed nature of our system has no mechanism to force such an outcome. The inability of the party to govern ougth to lead to a recourse to voters.

    Likewise, it continues to be true that the Freedom Caucus faction of the GOP is acting almost like another party. But, again, the electoral incentives generated by primaries and the linkages to the presidential contest make an actual schism unlikely.

    Yes, on both counts, and also the worst of both worlds.

    We have the office of the Speaker, which was never intended to hold the authority it currently holds, which makes it a prize to be won, which means people and factions are willing to fight for it. It is the equivalent of a head of Parliament in terms of actual authority but with weak parties – particularly the GoP – results in a situation where no one can force the various GoP factions to place nice. The factions in the GoP are fighting over this prize because they understand that the Speakership is the keystone for controlling the agenda in Congress (and many other things), and – so far – are willing to prioritize that contest over other, less important concerns like partisan cohesion and party loyalty.

    I would very much be enjoying the spectacle and the implosion of the GoP if it weren’t for the reality that the CR runs out very soon, and funding for Israel and Ukraine also needs to happen soon.

    What has happened in the past – very long ago now – is that moderates, when presented with a similar set of circumstances, would forge a “gang” or other controlling alliance that could not be ignored. That doesn’t happen now for a variety of reasons, the primary one being it is very easy to primary moderates (or anyone deemed a heretic), and therefore that creates a kind of back-door party loyalty.

    99% of behavior by Congressional representatives can be explained by the desire to keep their office, and the reason that GoP moderates won’t align with Democratic moderates is because doing so would be political seppuku thanks to our wonderful, overly-democratic primary system. We see that partisans are very happy to purge heretics from the ranks, even if it means minority status.

    Helluva way to run a country. I honestly have no idea how this ends.

    3
  14. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Beth: Ha!

    1
  15. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    I would very much be enjoying the spectacle and the implosion of the GoP if it weren’t for the reality that the CR runs out very soon, and funding for Israel and Ukraine also needs to happen soon.

    Yup!

    3
  16. al Ameda Avatar
    al Ameda

    Alas, the fixed nature of our system has no mechanism to force such an outcome. The inability of the party to govern ought to lead to a recourse to voters.

    I now believe that the Republican Majority ‘Burn It Down’ Caucus is basically pretending to be upset by their seeming inability to elect a Speaker. Chaos? To most Republicans who have bought into disruption and election-denial, this chaos is normalized. In fact, I think it very likely that a majority of Republicans wouldn’t mind it at all if this spilled over into another shutdown.

    2
  17. Ken_L Avatar
    Ken_L

    I would note that in many systems if this was a parliamentary majority that could not pick a government that new elections would have to be called.

    And while that happened, a ‘caretaker’ administration would be installed which lacked the authority to introduce new legislation but ensured government services continued uninterrupted. That’s why the famous 18 month Belgian “government shut down” which Republicans like to hold up as proof they’re pretty harmless, really, cannot be compared to a US equivalent.

    2
  18. Mister Bluster Avatar
    Mister Bluster

    Who is Representative Mike Johnson?

    1
  19. al Ameda Avatar
    al Ameda

    @Mister Bluster:

    Who is Representative Mike Johnson?

    He’s a Louisiana lawyer, another election-denier of course, and an advocate of the now popular among MAGA enthusiasts of the theory that only the state legislatures have constitutional authority to direct the manner of appointing presidential electors in their respective states. (phony electors, anyone?)

    He’s worse than Jim Jordan, he knows what he’s doing.

    3
  20. Lounsbury Avatar
    Lounsbury

    Likewise, it continues to be true that the Freedom Caucus faction of the GOP is acting almost like another party. But, again, the electoral incentives generated by primaries and the linkages to the presidential contest make an actual schism unlikely

    It is then my takeaway from the conversations that it is the Primary system that is the most amenable path for practical reform – as I believe as well it was comparatively recent reforms that helped create this mess.

  21. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Ken_L: Good point.

    @Lounsbury: I would note that primaries, while relatively recent as the means of choosing presidential candidates (1972), have been around for a century or more (depending on jurisdiction) to select congressional candidates (and others). It is an area of possible reform, and one that I advocate for, but it is also a pretty entrenched institutional feature of the US political system. Just a clarification.

    1
  22. Charley in Cleveland Avatar
    Charley in Cleveland

    It doesn’t matter who is elected Speaker, the same asshats who have gummed up the Speaker race WILL shutdown the government next month. It’s what the de facto heads of the party – Trump and Steve Bannon – want.

    2

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