Scott Elliot analyzes current trends and thinks that, twenty years from now, the Libertarians will be a viable party.
In the next twenty years or so, we’ll become a three-party political system. The Republican Party and the Democratic Party will be joined by the Libertarian Party as a legitimate force in American politics. The Libertarian Party will grow substantially over the next couple of decades, pulling support from both the GOP and the Democrats.
Here’s the reason why: Many Americans are libertarian at heart – they just don’t recognize it…yet. These folks believe in less restrictions on behaviors (a liberal or Democratic view) and less involvement by the government in economic issues (a conservative or Republican view). Right now, many closet Libertarians are counted among the two major political parties. As Democrats continue to espouse increasingly liberal economic policies – such as universal healthcare – it is becoming more and more difficult for libertarians in their ranks to remain. Likewise, philosophical libertarians in the GOP are getting increasingly uncomfortable with the growing influence of the values-based politics – such as pro-life policies and the Defense of Marriage Act – in their party.
This has been predicted before. The bottom line is that the Libertarians will never be viable at the national level unless 1) there are radical structural changes in the American electoral system and 2) the Libertarians become markedly less weird.
For a fuller examination of these points, see my discussions about this with Michael J. Totten, Stephen Green, Bill Quick, and Robin Goodfellow.
