Last week the UVA Center for Politic’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball issued the following: Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do.
As has been known, the map is favorable to the GOP.
First of all, there’s just the basic math. There are 34 Senate races slated for next year so far — 33 regular contests, plus a special election in Nebraska,
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Democrats are defending 23 of these seats, while Republicans are defending just 11.
Emphasis in the original–and “Democrats” include two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
Moreover, “it isn’t necessarily a stretch to say that Democrats are defending the top 8 Senate seats likeliest to flip.” (emphasis also in the original).
The map:
For anyone who was hoping that West Virginia Democrats might be in a position to nominate a “real Democrat” may well get their wish, as there is a non-zero chance Manchin retires as he barely won re-election last time and this time it will be a presidential year. Of course, the almost certain outcome of a more Democraty Democrat in that race will be a flipped seat to the Republicans.
Of the toss-up state, Democrats are likely in a tough spot in Montana and Ohio. Arizona will be interesting insofar as the state has recently lean Democratic at the state level, but the actions of new independent Senator Sinema could come into play.
The Arizona situation is fascinating, given the possibility of a true 3-way race. Gallego may have the Democratic primary field to himself, but that remains an open question — one possible contender, Rep. Greg Stanton (D, AZ-4), passed on a bid in advance of Gallego’s announcement. Gallego is definitely positioned to Sinema’s left, which may help him consolidate the Democratic base but could leave him vulnerable with the swing voters who ultimately will decide the race. But that also depends on whether Sinema runs, how national Democrats decide to handle the race if she does, and who Republicans nominate.
Granted, the specifics of the national climate in November 2024 is an unknown variable, but it is hard to look at that map and not assume that the most likely outcome is a Republican Senate in January of 2025.
