Mitt Romney’s surge appears to be showing up in several Midwestern states where, before the debate, it had appeared that his chances were fairly low.
First up, there’s Michigan where a poll for the Detroit Free Press finds Romney within two points of the President:
LANSING — Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s strong performance in his first debate with President Barack Obama helped him trim Obama’s lead in Michigan to three percentage points, a poll released today to the Free Press shows.
Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Undecided voters shrank from the September survey’s 16% to just 7%.
EPIC’s September poll and others last month appeared to put Michigan out of reach for Romney, a native son.
“Romney has come back like gangbusters,” said EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. “Whether or not it’s long-lasting, only time will tell, but probably the remaining debates will be key.”
Another Michigan poll, from a Democratic pollster, has Obama ahead by just three points. By contrast, polls by We Ask America and Rasmussen in September had the President leading by twelve points in the Wolverine State.
Across the border in Ohio, we have two new polls. One from a Columbus NBC affiliate that has the President leading Romney by 45% to 44%, and another from ARG that shows Romney leading 48% to 47%.
Finally, though technically not a Midwestern state, we have surprising news out of Pennsylvania:
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 2 point margin, identical to his lead in late September according to Susquehanna Polling and Research. But the Republican’s debate performance contributed to a 6 point jump in his favorability rating.
In a poll conducted just after the first presidential debate, from Oct. 4 to 6, 47 percent of respondents said they support Obama; 45 percent support Romney. 3 percent support Libertarian Gary Johnson.
The Obama-Romney head-to-head numbers are identical the most recent Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released on Sept. 23. The margin of that poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review closely resemble that of another SP&R survey conducted for the Pa. Republican party which showed Obama at a 48 percent to 47 advantage.
When the undecided voters leaning towards a candidate are factored in (breaking 3:1 for Romney), the race narrows to a 1-point Obama lead, 47 percent to 46.
It’s worth noting that this poll was showing the race in Pennsylvania as close last month when other pollsters were showing the President with a comfortable lead, so these numbers may not be entirely accurate. Nonetheless, it does appear that Governor Romney’s debate bounce has started to filter down to the states as we sit here four weeks out from Election Day.
Update: Another poll of Pennsylvania from Siena Research Institute [PDF] puts the race at Obama 43% Romney 40%.
