Looking to the 2024 Senate Map

A tough map for the Democrats.

On Polling and Media Narratives

Some thoughts on polling and the news since 2016.

Trump Committed Four Crimes, Say January 6 Committee

The ball is now in Merrick Garland’s court.

McCarthy’s Road to the Speakership

He is so close.

What Now for Stacey Abrams’ Model?

Her emphasis on turnout has helped other Democrats but she’s a two-time loser.

Rehnquist and the ‘Independent State Legislature’ Theory

The late Chief Justice was right; his successors are wrong.

Democrats Radically Overhaul Presidential Primaries

The idiocy of Iowa and New Hampshire having outsized influence on who is elected President may be ending.

Alaska Voters Had Real Choices and Made Them

Every vote counted, with refreshing results.

Alaska Results in

MAGA loses again (twice)

Red and Blue States Aren’t Permanent

The margins for 2024 are likely to be slim. But that hides a larger story.

Trump Hemmorhaging Donors and Backers

The ship is abandoning the sinking rat.

What’s the Pattern for Senate Seats in Mid-Terms?

Looking at past Senate elections and some more thoughts on historical patterns.

“We Used to Know on Election Night!”

Well, kind of, but not really.

Nevada ‘Blue Shift’ Expected to Keep Senate Democratic

Adam Laxalt’s big lead is slowly erodiing.

Republican Losers Conceding, Not Rioting

A low bar has been cleared.

Nevada Election Results Could Take ‘Days’

Republicans hold narrow leads for Governor and Senator but . . . .

Democratic Ratfucking Worked

Boosting weak candidates in the Republican primaries paid off.

Democrats Outperform Expectations

The Needle is Broken

Crystal Ball Final 2022 Ratings

Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.

Congressional Control Still Too Close to Call

We likely won’t know on Election Night.

The Prevailing Myth of American Politics

A bit of a rant, I expect.

Democrats’ Messaging Challenges

Touting the accomplishments of the last two years isn’t working.

Democracy and ZIP Codes

The rules for voting in America vary widely.

Four Seats

31 of the 35 Senate races next month are noncompetititve.

Sarah Palin, Ranked Choice Voting, and the Perils of N=1 Analysis

More details from the Alaska special election.

American Ideological Self-Identification

“Moderate” is up, “Liberal” is down, and “Conservative” is static. What does it mean?

Democrats Betting Big on Abortion

They’re spending millions on issue ads in the wake of Dobbs.

Liz Cheney’s Future

She’ll almost certainly be out of a job in January. Then what?

Feelings Don’t Care About Facts

“America can survive the demagogues themselves, it’s their audience that will kill us.”

Looking to the Senate Elections

It’s early, but here are some key numbers as they exist now.

Democrats Punt on Primary Order

They’re going to wait until after the midterms to decide whether Iowa and New Hampshire stay at the front of the line.

Independent State Legislature Theory

A theory floated in Bush v Gore could radically change American elections.

Trump’s Support is Down

Signs and portents?

Takeaways From the Takeaways

It’s not all about Trump.

January 6 Committee Divided on Which Non-Starter Recommendations to Make

They’re taking their eye off the ball.

An Example of Utterly Awful Elections Analysis

The NYT and CA41 and yet another example of telling the wrong story.

Trump Loses Big in Georgia, Again

Two incumbents roared to victory despite his opposition.

New York’s Gerrymandering Disarmament

When doing the right thing is the wrong thing.

The Flawed Nature of Representation in the US

Our representation problems are far, far more about structure than they are about the messaging of the parties.

Coronavirus Relief Funds Diverted to Pet Projects

Because of course it was.

Romney 2024?

He’s tanned. He’s rested. Is he ready?

Virginia’s Youngkin Already ‘Underwater’

The Commonwealth’s undemocratic political system is, shockingly, unrepresentative of the will of its people.

A Note on Primary Elections

Data from Texas underscore a frequent point about primaries.

Why isn’t Biden Magical?

Some pundits have high standards.

January 6th Yeah But-ism

Yes the riots were a disgrace but the Democrats . . . .

Are Americans Over January 6?

A new poll offers mixed results.

2022 is a Midterm Year

In case anyone was wondering (and the GOP’s prospects are good).

Unilateral Disarmament on Gerrymandering

Democrats and Republicans are playing by different rules.

Trump Leads Biden in Meaningless Poll

We’re three short years from the next election.

RVA Pro Gun Rally 2020-11 Streets of Richmond, VA RVA Pro Gun Rally 2020-11 Streets of Richmond, VA

Trump, the GOP, and Stochastic Terrorism

A conversation in two parts.