Trump And Miller At Functional Odds On Immigration Policy [Updated: Or maybe not]
The challenges and harms of meeting campaign promises.
Let’s start by acknowledging something: humans as a whole are terrible at estimating things. It’s well demonstrated that people tend to overestimate or underestimate lots of things, from the sizes of minority groups to issues of racial inequality to relative health risks. Those poor estimations (and resistance to examining the actual data) can lead to very poor policy decisions, as we are seeing in the case of immigration.
This becomes even more challenging when one of the participants is well-known for not paying attention to details.
A core stance of President Trump’s second reelection campaign was the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. At the same time, then-candidate Trump promised they would focus on the “really bad guys,” i.e., the people with criminal records–especially those with violent criminal records. At the time, immigration experts kept putting forward statistics that demonstrate that, aside from the civil violation of immigration laws, immigrants have lower rates of criminal legal system involvement than legal residents. Furthermore, almost all concluded that there was no way Trump could meet his campaign promises by focusing solely on the “really bad guys.”
To be fair to Trump, I believe–based on his rhetoric–that he vastly overestimated the number of undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Again, he’s not someone who sweats the details. And, not to let him off the hook, it’s clear he has no real interest in learning what the truth is. Again, he’s not someone who sweats the details.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller, on the other hand, is someone who does sweat the details. And it’s clear that from the start he’s understood that going after “bad guys” was not going to get him the level of deportations that feeds his undead soul (I am sure some readers will say that statement of obvious fact diminishes me–once again, in this case I’m ok with that). And there is reporting to back this up:
On May 20, 2025, Stephen Miller, the architect of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, called ICE’s top 50 field heads into Washington, D.C.
“Miller came in there and eviscerated everyone. ‘You guys aren’t doing a good job. You’re horrible leaders.’ He just ripped into everybody. He had nothing positive to say about anybody, shot morale down,” said the first official, according to reporting by Anna Giaritelli for the Washington Examiner.
“Stephen Miller wants everybody arrested. ‘Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?’” the official recited. (Emphasis added.)
In response to pushback from one ICE official, “Miller said, ‘What do you mean you’re going after criminals?’ Miller got into a little bit of a pissing contest. ‘That’s what Tom Homan says every time he’s on TV: ‘We’re going after criminals,’” the ICE official told Miller, according to the first official, reported the Washington Examiner.
Miller is most likely also behind having ICE arrest people who are showing up for their civil hearings–you know, actually following immigration legal procedure. Not only is this a terrible practice from an overall law and order perspective and will most likely drive people further underground, but it’s something that is creating wedges between Trump and congresspeople:
And business owners who supported Trump:
Apparently, this is now getting to the President because today he made the following announcement on Truth Social:
[Update] Trump also repeated this position at a press event earlier today:
If Trump is serious about this position, and he follows through on it, then there is a coming conflict between him and Miller. Because there is simply no way to reach the promised deportation goals without going after the “very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Also, note that Trump’s suddenly repeating immigrant rights activists’ positions that most Americans don’t want to do those jobs. Funny that… huh?
So the question is, who will win out? Miller’s maximalist immigration approach or Trump’s TACO approach to campaign promises and alienating his base. This is a case where–as experts were warning BEFORE the election–you can’t have both.
Of course, that’s assuming that his staff are keeping Trump up to date on developments. His answer last night about the spread of anti-ICE protests makes it appear that they might not be:https://x.com/Acyn/status/1932932671145181365
[Update]
It looks like Miller (or someone else) talked to Trump because we’re back to the old tune:
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 06.12.25 02:03 PM EST Biden let 21 Million Unvetted, Illegal Aliens flood into the Country from some of the most dangerous and dysfunctional Nations on Earth — Many of them Rapists, Murderers, and Terrorists. This tsunami of Illegals has destroyed Americans’ Public Schools, Hospitals, Parks, Community Resources, and Living Conditions. They have stolen American Jobs, consumed BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in Free Welfare, and turned once idyllic Communities, like Springfield, Ohio, into Third World Nightmares. I campaigned on, and received a Historic Mandate for, the largest Mass Deportation Program in American History. Polling shows overwhelming Public Support for getting the Illegals out, and that is exactly what we will do. As Commander-in-Chief, I will always protect and defend the Heroes of ICE and Border Patrol, whose work has already resulted in the Most Secure Border in American History. Anyone who assaults or attacks an ICE or Border Agent will do hard time in jail. Those who are here illegally should either self deport using the CBP Home App or, ICE will find you and remove you. Saving America is not negotiable!
Again, those claims don’t match the facts and we’re back to Trump overestimating the problem (“many of them” is doing a LOT of work). Either way, we still are at the fundamental issue that you cannot accomplish mass deportations by only focusing on folks with records.
Also, do we really need to relitigate all of Trump and Vance’s racist lies about legal immigrants in Springfield, OH?
And BTW, Trump voters very much voted for this:
My prediction from the beginning was that they would focus on showy removal of illegals from Blue state cities, which I think is largely true. It’s well known eg that about 50% of construction workers in Texas are illegal, and that Texas facilitates that. However, it looks like ICE has hit a few places in red states and there are of course Trump supporters in Blue states too. It’s not surprising they are complaining and it will get louder if they start actively going after the, easy to find, workers in red states.
That said, besides always caving he always plays to his base and I think the overall cruelty of what is currently ongoing plays well with them.
Steve
I think there’s going to come a day when something really bad happens and it’s going to be all over the news and what not. Except it won’t be on Fox News. Fox News will spend a whole day just ignoring whatever is happening, no crawl, no nothing. That will be the day that Miller and Vance have decided they’ve done something that they desperately need the old man to not know about.
They’ll jam him somewhere and park him in front of the TV and let Fox lie to him while they try and clean up their mess.
@steve:
As I said the other day:
On immigration, Republicans are running a racist scam to manipulate the gullible into scapegoating brown immigrants for problems caused by white billionaires.
Immigrants (and trans folk) are not the ones price gouging us, selling out Europe to Putin, siding with Jan 6 terrorists, hiding the Epstein files, destabilizing air safety with reckless DOGE mass layoffs, blocking affordable housing and healthcare, or pushing the Big Ugly Bill bill that’ll kick 14 million Americans off healthcare while creating $4 trillion yearly deficits.
Incidentally, it doesn’t appear attacking Latinos, ambushing non-criminal compliant migrants workers, or deploying the military against US citizens is all that popular after all:
Trump is under water on some of his top issues — including immigration, poll shows (Politico – 11 June 2025)
Republicans running in 2026 had better hope the relatively strong economy that Old Man Biden left the incompetent Epstein-bestie rapist is resilient enough to withstand Trump’s deportations and job-killing, inflationary tariff chaos.
@DK: Texas won’t force private companies to use E-Verify to check workers’ immigration status, despite leaders’ tough talk
Someday, steve, they’re going to run out of removable immigrants in blue states and not be near their target numbers. Then they will have to start doing the same thing in red states.
@Joe:
We’ve already passed that point–at least in terms of states that voted for Trump in 2024. Florida is already a touchpoint for this.
When I was younger, I was always hyper-aware and uncomfortable when I was in a space where there were more Blacks and Latinos than white folks — logically I knew this was a bad reaction, and I kept it to myself and it would mellow, but it was definitely a reaction I would have. This hasn’t been a problem since I moved to Seattle.
Anyway, I get that exact same feeling looking at the picture of all those so-samey white people (mostly middle-aged white women with fake blond hair) holding up those “Mass Deportation Now” signs. Except, I don’t have any recognition that my immediate visceral reaction is wrong. These people are genuinely terrifying.
@Scott:
A disgrace. So over the woke liberals who dominate Texas politics and their support for de facto open borders and the migrant invasion taking American jobs.
Trump is the weirdest candidate in American history. He will go on TV, say, “I intend to have a salami sandwich” and his followers will cheer, praise salami sandwiches and then, a few days later, act all hurt and surprised because they expected him to have the turkey club.