Let’s start by acknowledging something: humans as a whole are terrible at estimating things. It’s well demonstrated that people tend to overestimate or underestimate lots of things, from the sizes of minority groups to issues of racial inequality to relative health risks. Those poor estimations (and resistance to examining the actual data) can lead to very poor policy decisions, as we are seeing in the case of immigration.
This becomes even more challenging when one of the participants is well-known for not paying attention to details.
A core stance of President Trump’s second reelection campaign was the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. At the same time, then-candidate Trump promised they would focus on the “really bad guys,” i.e., the people with criminal records–especially those with violent criminal records. At the time, immigration experts kept putting forward statistics that demonstrate that, aside from the civil violation of immigration laws, immigrants have lower rates of criminal legal system involvement than legal residents. Furthermore, almost all concluded that there was no way Trump could meet his campaign promises by focusing solely on the “really bad guys.”
To be fair to Trump, I believe–based on his rhetoric–that he vastly overestimated the number of undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Again, he’s not someone who sweats the details. And, not to let him off the hook, it’s clear he has no real interest in learning what the truth is. Again, he’s not someone who sweats the details.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller, on the other hand, is someone who does sweat the details. And it’s clear that from the start he’s understood that going after “bad guys” was not going to get him the level of deportations that feeds his undead soul (I am sure some readers will say that statement of obvious fact diminishes me–once again, in this case I’m ok with that). And there is reporting to back this up:
On May 20, 2025, Stephen Miller, the architect of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, called ICE’s top 50 field heads into Washington, D.C.
“Miller came in there and eviscerated everyone. ‘You guys aren’t doing a good job. You’re horrible leaders.’ He just ripped into everybody. He had nothing positive to say about anybody, shot morale down,” said the first official, according to reporting by Anna Giaritelli for the Washington Examiner.
“Stephen Miller wants everybody arrested. ‘Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?’” the official recited. (Emphasis added.)
In response to pushback from one ICE official, “Miller said, ‘What do you mean you’re going after criminals?’ Miller got into a little bit of a pissing contest. ‘That’s what Tom Homan says every time he’s on TV: ‘We’re going after criminals,’” the ICE official told Miller, according to the first official, reported the Washington Examiner.
Miller is most likely also behind having ICE arrest people who are showing up for their civil hearings–you know, actually following immigration legal procedure. Not only is this a terrible practice from an overall law and order perspective and will most likely drive people further underground, but it’s something that is creating wedges between Trump and congresspeople:
And business owners who supported Trump:
Apparently, this is now getting to the President because today he made the following announcement on Truth Social:
[Update] Trump also repeated this position at a press event earlier today:
If Trump is serious about this position, and he follows through on it, then there is a coming conflict between him and Miller. Because there is simply no way to reach the promised deportation goals without going after the “very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” Also, note that Trump’s suddenly repeating immigrant rights activists’ positions that most Americans don’t want to do those jobs. Funny that… huh?
So the question is, who will win out? Miller’s maximalist immigration approach or Trump’s TACO approach to campaign promises and alienating his base. This is a case where–as experts were warning BEFORE the election–you can’t have both.
Of course, that’s assuming that his staff are keeping Trump up to date on developments. His answer last night about the spread of anti-ICE protests makes it appear that they might not be:https://x.com/Acyn/status/1932932671145181365
[Update]
It looks like Miller (or someone else) talked to Trump because we’re back to the old tune:
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 06.12.25 02:03 PM EST Biden let 21 Million Unvetted, Illegal Aliens flood into the Country from some of the most dangerous and dysfunctional Nations on Earth — Many of them Rapists, Murderers, and Terrorists. This tsunami of Illegals has destroyed Americans’ Public Schools, Hospitals, Parks, Community Resources, and Living Conditions. They have stolen American Jobs, consumed BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in Free Welfare, and turned once idyllic Communities, like Springfield, Ohio, into Third World Nightmares. I campaigned on, and received a Historic Mandate for, the largest Mass Deportation Program in American History. Polling shows overwhelming Public Support for getting the Illegals out, and that is exactly what we will do. As Commander-in-Chief, I will always protect and defend the Heroes of ICE and Border Patrol, whose work has already resulted in the Most Secure Border in American History. Anyone who assaults or attacks an ICE or Border Agent will do hard time in jail. Those who are here illegally should either self deport using the CBP Home App or, ICE will find you and remove you. Saving America is not negotiable!
Again, those claims don’t match the facts and we’re back to Trump overestimating the problem (“many of them” is doing a LOT of work). Either way, we still are at the fundamental issue that you cannot accomplish mass deportations by only focusing on folks with records.
Also, do we really need to relitigate all of Trump and Vance’s racist lies about legal immigrants in Springfield, OH?
And BTW, Trump voters very much voted for this:
