NYT (“U.S. Has Reached Security Deal on Greenland, Trump Says“):

President Trump said on Friday that his administration had reached a deal with Denmark and Greenland to expand the U.S. security presence in Greenland, a semiautonomous Danish territory, raising the possibility of a diplomatic solution to a U.S.-made threat that nearly upended the Western alliance.

The full contours of the deal Mr. Trump was describing were not immediately clear, but shortly after his announcement, leaders of Greenland and Denmark issued statements indicating they expected an agreement to be signed next week during the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The two sides described the agreement in very different terms. Mr. Trump claimed the United States had secured “permanent control over security, and all other needs” in Greenland, while the Danish prime minister said the deal “recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of the Kingdom of Denmark.

That description would mean the agreement fell well short of Mr. Trump’s longstanding demand of total control over Greenland.

Earlier this year, Mr. Trump said that “anything less” than U.S. ownership of Greenland would be “unacceptable.” He said possession of the territory was “psychologically important” to him.

Instead, what Mr. Trump described on Friday was a deal that would prevent U.S. adversaries from having a base on Greenland and expand the U.S. military presence in the territory. In his social media post, Mr. Trump said that under the deal, “no U.S. adversary can EVER have a base in Greenland, have a military presence in Greenland, or make sensitive investments in Greenland, without our express written approval.”

Officials from Denmark and Greenland did not immediately confirm that the United States had received such veto power — a U.S. demand that they had strongly opposed in closed-door negotiations in recent months. And two people close to the negotiations said Mr. Trump’s declaration of permanent control over Greenland’s security exaggerated the degree of new powers the United States would get over the territory. The U.S. military will be working with its counterparts in Denmark and Greenland under the agreement rather than asserting control over them, a U.S. military official said.

Still, the apparent deal, reached after months of high-stakes confidential talks with officials from the United States, Greenland and Denmark, could mark an off-ramp to an issue that caused widespread concern among NATO allies earlier this year.

The Guardian (“US and Denmark reach security deal after Trump’s threats to take over Greenland“) adds:

The full scope of the deal Trump described as “very important, historic, and special” was not immediately clear. But soon after his announcement in a post on Truth Social, the leaders of Denmark and Greenland issued statements indicating the deal would be signed by the three governments on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly in New York City next week.

[…]

The announcement comes just weeks before November’s midterms, giving the president a foreign policy accomplishment he can tout to voters as the deeply unpopular war with Iran becomes an increasing political liability for Republicans vying to hang on to their narrow majorities in the House and Senate.

[…]

Statements from Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, and the leader of Greenland’s government, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, posted online late on Friday, emphasized that the agreement would fall far short of Trump’s previously stated desire for “the acquisition of Greenland by the United States”.

Frederiksen said that what she called “a great agreement” for all three parties “recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom and the Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination”.

Nielsen said it was “joyous” that the agreement “ensures and strengthens the security of Greenland, the Kingdom of Denmark, the United States and the Western Alliance”, suggesting that the deal might possibly just reiterate the existing US rights through Nato to use the island as a security base.

Once agreed to, the pact would need to go through parliamentary procedures to be enacted, the Danish and Greenlandic statements said.

I predict that the Greenland matter’s impact on the midterms will approach zero. Not only do Americans seldom pay attention to matters of foreign affairs, this deal didn’t even make the TOP 25 TRUMP ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF TERM THREE. Granted, there have been so many great accomplishments. Even in the one-and-a-half terms Trump has had.

As to the deal itself, it seems to reinforce the status quo ante. The United States, and the 31 other NATO Allies, already had the right to build and expand bases in Greenland. From the above-linked NYT report:

The United States first established a military presence in Greenland during World War II, and in 1951 reached an agreement with Denmark granting it broad freedom to operate military installations on the island.

The 1951 pact allowed for access by the forces of NATO nations. But it did not explicitly restrict the presence of “adversary” nations, as Mr. Trump claimed on Friday the new agreement would do. Under the new deal, countries that are not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would not be permitted to build a base or maintain a military presence in Greenland, according to a State Department official detailing the deal under the condition of anonymity.

And, regardless of whether the deal formally prohibits NATO adversaries from building bases there, it’s simply inconceivable that it would be permitted.