Kieran Healy summarizes the social science literature on revolutions (with links and everything) to explain why the current student protests in Iran probably won’t lead to regime change any time soon. The short version: as long as the leadership remains united and in control of the military and police, they can maintain their grip on power.
YOU SAY YOU WANT A REVOLUTION?
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8 responses to “YOU SAY YOU WANT A REVOLUTION?”
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And, reading through the lens of social science theory, it is highly unlikely that Eastern Europe or the USSR will fall as well. Chile will also remain firmly in the grip of Pinochet, given his grip on the means of coercion and (relative) unity of the military. Democracy will never be negotiated here.
(While I admit that the students have a big uphill battle, my point here is not to put too much credence in social science theory. There are splits in the clergy and a general disgruntlement among the business class.)
