One of the more frustrating, if not gut-wrenching, aspects of the possibility that Donald Trump will return to power is that his most likely route to do so is, like his first go at the White House, with minority support. That is: more voters will prefer Biden, but the mechanism of the Electoral College will allow Trump to win anyway.
We know that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by 2,833,224 votes and in 2020 by 7,052,045. Note that in the Gallup poll, he never hit 50% approval (Last Trump Job Approval 34%; Average Is Record-Low 41%):
And, of course, the broader selection via 538:*
There is little empirical evidence that he can command majority support. The only concern in that regard is that some recent polls do have him at 50%-plus.
As such, the real precarity of this present moment is that a minority of the electorate can return Trump to power. It is, in my view, a profound flaw in our system that the most powerful members of the government can be elected in such a fashion. Nevertheless, that’s how it works. We all know that it is how he came to power in 2016, that that was his route in 2020, and it is his likely pathway in 2024. Thousands of voters in a few states can give him the Electoral Votes he needs, plain and simple.
By the same token that means, however, that if a relatively small number of Republican partisans can be persuaded not to vote for Trump (or not to vote all) then that enhances the chances of his defeat.
This is why I find at least some hope in things like Pence’s unwillingness to endorse Trump or in stories about utterly indefensible things he says. Yes, I agree, that they will have little effect on MAGAites. They will not even persuade the general Republican electorate who prefers a candidate with an R by their name as opposed to a D (for reasons that are not as irrational as readers here may like to think).
As such, I think it important to remind ourselves that while X event, Y utterance, or whatever is not going to change the minds of MAGAs, or even of most Republican voters, that doesn’t have to be the goal. The goal is try and get enough people to understand the problem and threat of Trump so that places like AZ, MI, PA, and WI go for Biden the way I anticipate that the country as a whole will go in November.
So, to be clear, I am not saying that Trump can’t win (see: 2016). I am not even saying that he can’t win the popular vote (but I think it to be highly, highly unlikely). But I am saying that I would advise against dismissing the steady trickle of stories that give some hope that a handful of voters here and a handful there might change their minds (e.g., via CNN: Lisa Murkowski, done with Donald Trump, won’t rule out leaving GOP). Or, that things like Trump Salutes Insurrection ‘Hostages’ won’t matter.
There is also the clear financial troubles Trump is experiencing, the undeniable distractions of his various trials, and his bizarre gutting of the RNC.
All of this only has to matter at the extreme margins in key locations.
Note, I am also not playing the 2016 game that the Never-Trumpers will save us. I am simply saying that he does do and say a lot of things that may be enough to create something closer to 2020 than to 2016 (especially if the third party vote is more like 2020 than 2016).
Note, too, it is only March and while for those of us who pay attention, it feels like this campaign season has been going on since late 2019/early 2020, for the normals out there, it really hasn’t even begun yet.
Just some late Sunday morning thoughts from a decidedly not normal.
Time to go work in the yard.
*And yes, before someone says it, Biden isn’t knocking out of the park, either. But in contrast to Trump, he was able to win the popular vote in 2020, and he has at least demonstrated the ability to surmount 50%, even if his current numbers are terrible.
