Outside the Beltway

A Good Jobs Report

More jobs were added than expected.

Steven L. Taylor
11

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Via the NYT:

Despite all the hand-wringing, the U.S. labor market remains impressively strong.

Businesses reported adding 254,000 jobs in September, the government reported on Friday. The number far surpassed forecasts and was the strongest monthly gain since March.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent.

The strong growth follows months of slower hiring and bolstered odds that the U.S. economy can avoid losing momentum. The report eased analysts’ concerns that based on historical trends, a recession could be looming.

To repeat myself, good news for the economy is good news for the Harris campaign while bad news for the economy would have been good news for Trump. Make of that what you will.

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11 responses to “A Good Jobs Report”

  1. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    Biden has a most peculiar, counterproductive way of ruining the country.

    15
  2. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    The report eased analysts’ concerns that based on historical trends, a recession could be looming.

    I’m pretty sure a recession is always looming. Sometimes it threatens rather than looms, but mostly it looms. Or, if it doesn’t loom directly, its specter does. The great thing about looming and threatening is how non-specific they are when it comes to timing. It’s a stopped watch thing: if you just keep reporting on a looming recession, you’ll eventually be right.

    13
  3. DK Avatar
    DK

    October 20, 2022 – Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says chance of recession next year is substantial (CNN):

    Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said on Thursday that it’s “substantially” more likely than not that the United States will enter a recession next year. Recession became “almost inevitable” once inflation rates grew above 5%, he said…

    “The unemployment is likely to rise towards 6%, that’s a very real and not an easy thing,” he added…

    The US economy has been flashing warning signs of an upcoming recession for months. In the past week alone, a number of economic leaders — including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — have said they worry that recession is imminent. There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession next year, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.

    Same “economic leaders” have otherwise smart people claiming the blatant price gouging and greedflation isn’t a thing.
    Sure Jan.

    Kudus to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Shalanda Young, Julie Su, Neera Tanden, Cecilia Rouse, Jared Bernstein, Lael Brainard, Lina Khan, Rohit Chopra, Katherine Tai, and Gina Raimondo. Economic dream team.

    11
  4. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    it’s “substantially” more likely than not that the United States will enter a recession next year.

    And even more so should Trump be elected. At least if the performance of my portfolio during the last Trump administration is any indication. 😐

    3
  5. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    @Michael Reynolds:

    I’m pretty sure a recession is always looming.

    How does the old saying go…”Economists have successfully predicted nine of the past five recessions.”

    10
  6. Eusebio Avatar
    Eusebio

    @DK:

    Kudus to Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, and Shalanda Young, Julie Su, Cecilia Rouse, Jared Bernstein, Lael Brainard, Lina Khan, Rohit Chopra, Katherine Tai, and Gina Raimondo. An economic dream team.

    During the VP debate, Walz addressed the role of experts, noting that Trump and Vance are dismissive of actual experts:

    I made a note of this. “Economists don’t, can’t be trusted. Science can’t be trusted. National security folks can’t be trusted.” Look, if you’re going to be President, you don’t have all the answers. Donald Trump believes he does. My pro tip of the day is this, if you need heart surgery, listen to the people at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, not Donald Trump.

    And Vance’s response actually supported Walz’s point:

    [discussed offshoring] And we’re not going to stop it by listening to experts. We’re going to stop it by listening to common sense wisdom, which is what Donald Trump governed on.

    3
  7. Lounsbury Avatar
    Lounsbury

    @DK: Since none of your terms are statistically nor otherwise numerically defined, of course they mean whatever you want them to mean.

    Data however shows that ex-energy prices (where margins did indeed broadly acclerate) medium term margins on sectorial remain the same.

    As political spin and pandering, perfectly useful for Harris & Biden and fully understandable.

    Data however shows they are in fact political spin and pandering with all the analytical validity of Trump’s tariffs.

    Inflation is at once banal and difficult

    Thankfully the central banks and proper expertise has so far prevailed over populist posturing.

  8. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    As I say every time I drive past my local gas station and see about the same price I’ve been seeing for two years, “Way to go Brandon”. I confess I’m amazed at such a good jobs report. We’ve been near record low unemployment for a couple years. Don’t we at some point run out of applicants?

    1
  9. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    @gVOR10: Gas was $2.37 at Costco yesterday in Cypress, TX.

    In the meantime, Saudi Arabia is threatening to open the spickets.

    Saudi Arabia Warns Oil Prices Could Drop to $50

    American oil is estimated to be profitable above $65/barrel.

    1
  10. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @Scott: And gas was $3.79 at Chevron in Portland, OR, yesterday. And that anecdote proves the same amount of nothing yours did.

  11. DK Avatar
    DK

    @Lounsbury: Since “populist posturing” has no statistical or numerical meaning, and since “political pandering” has ni definition for you besides “when liberals reject the failed Reagan consensus and acknowledge fiscal realities I don’t like,” of course my comment triggered you.

    Thank goodness the Keynesian beliefs of the American administration that knows price gouging is real prevailed over those who run interference for supply-side greed, Trumped-up trickle down, and voodoo economics.

    Not that there was any chance Biden’s economic dream team would ever take bad advice from out-of-touch Brits bloviating from across the pond with imagined authority, while their own economy ran aground in Thatcherite-cum-Brexiteer madness. Sweep around your own front door, babe.

    3

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