A Tuesday Forum
For today’s chit chat.
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60 responses to “A Tuesday Forum”
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‘Where’s Fauci?’ America panics as doctor absent again from White House briefing
The alarm reflected just how much the nation has come to rely on the wisdom of the straight-talking doctor from New York as the coronavirus pandemic spreads, with the worst yet to come. For many anxious Americans tuning in from the confinement of their homes, Fauci is a a voice of reason in a time of deep uncertainty.
And his absence at yet another briefing was cause for concern. Had he been sidelined for contradicting the president? Was he in good health?
…………………..
“I mean, I’m not, to my knowledge, coronavirus-infected,” he said, adding with a laugh: “To my knowledge, I haven’t been fired.”
Yep, WASF.
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The wife of an Arizona man who died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate to protect himself from the novel coronavirus spoke out Monday to urge the public not to “take anything” or “believe anything” without talking to a healthcare professional.
“We saw Trump on TV — every channel — and all of his buddies and that this was safe,” the woman told NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard of President Donald Trump. “Trump kept saying it was basically pretty much a cure.”
NBC News reported that the man, 68, and his wife, 61, took chloroquine to guard against the novel coronavirus, which causes a potentially fatal disease known as COVID-19. It’s not clear how much chloroquine the man ingested, and Banner Health said he and his wife ingested a version of the chemical that’s used to clean aquariums.
Both of them needed to seek medical care within half an hour; the woman is in critical condition, and the man died.
STFU Donny.
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Dan Patrick says he is willing to risk his own life to allow economy to resume
“No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance for your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren? And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in,” Patrick said on Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s show.
I live in Texas. And underlying this nonsense is a strong Christian End-Times death cult. It is what is driving our foreign policy, especially Middle East policy under Pompeo and Pence. It is what drives gun policy. Right around the corner from me is Cornerstone Church run by John Hagee, who is a powerful right wing zealot and End-Times preacher. They would like nothing better than to bring on the Armageddon and fulfill Biblical prophecy. They are a danger to the nation.
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There’s a fascinating article at War on the Rocks by a scholar of international law who claims that China is financially culpable for economic harm done by the COVID-19 pandemic. He bases this on a 2005 treaty that China is a signatory to, which they violated with their lies and disinformation to WHO in the early days of the outbreak.
If this analysis is correct, the US would be legally* entitled to (for example) withhold payments owed to China on existing debt, up to the amount of the damages. I think about all of those Treasury bonds that China holds…
*In the international law sense, which is fuzzier than the usual sense.
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I was wrong about something. My wife pointed out yesterday that the Social Security Administration knows a name (and an alleged address) for everyone who has a social security number, and has copies of all the 2019 W-2 forms, cross-linked to those numbers. They are, in fact, positioned to estimate pretty accurately who the wage-earners are, how much they were paid last year, and how to get a check to them. This would make a means-tested direct payment more feasible than I had believed.
@gVOR08, you were right and I was wrong.
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@DrDaveT:
But, as others mentioned, that only reflects last year’s income. A lot of people who might have been okay last year probably aren’t going to be this year.
And the numbers the SSA has only reflect gross income, not net income or liquidity (FICA is paid on gross earnings).
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Two Reasons the Worst-Case Scenarios for COVID-19 Seem Unrealistic
Speaking to reporters earlier this month, Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, called attention to the “denominator problem”—i.e., the exclusion of many people with mild or nonexistent symptoms from official counts of confirmed COVID-19 infections. Giroir noted that “the typical mortality rate for seasonal flu is about 0.1 percent or 0.15 percent.” By contrast, “the best estimates now for the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent.”
Three federal public health officials—Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; H. Clifford Lane, the institute’s deputy director for clinical research and special projects; and Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)—struck a similar note in a New England Journal of Medicine commentary last month. “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1 percent,” they wrote. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1 percent) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
Again, the issue of testing and knowing the actual numbers.
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But, as others mentioned, that only reflects last year’s income
Sure; I was one of them. But knowing who was being paid wages by what kind of business 3 months ago, and how much they made last year, is a far better proxy than 2018 tax returns and guesswork. You’d need a separate channel to get to independent contractors and small business owners, too.
And the numbers the SSA has only reflect gross income, not net income or liquidity
No, they have the actual W-2s, which include withholding.
Edited to emphasize that knowing what kind of business would also be useful.
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In last 24 hrs there’ve been prominent US voices calling for a stop to social distancing, citing rationale that they’re worse than impact of COVID itself. It’s worth looking very closely at that claim, where we are in US COVID epidemic and what happens if we stop. 1/x
COVID has been spreading w/ exponential growth in US for some time, and we’re just beginning to get an understanding of how extensively. There are nearly 40,000 cases recognized in the US as of today, w/ ~100 deaths today. A few weeks ago, we had recognized 70 cases total. 2/x
Some hospitals have said publicly that within a week they will not have ventilators to treat everyone with COVID anymore. 3/x
There continue to be big diagnostic limitations. Shortages in reagents, swabs. Don’t have rapid diagnostics in many hospitals yet, so it can be days before doctors and nurses can find out if a pt in front of them has COVID. 4/x
We don’t have capacity to diagnose many of the COVID cases that are not sick enough to be in the hospital, so those numbers aren’t counted in our national totals. 5/x
There continues to be terrible shortages in the masks that health care workers need to keep from getting sick with this disease. 6/x
How do we gain time to let hosps get more supplies & prepare for high number of pts? How do we lower the speed of spread of COVID in US? How do we lower odds that ICUs will run out of vents, hospitals run out of space? The answer for now is large scale social distancing.7/x
In Asia, we’ve seen these interventions work to lower pace of the epidemic, lower numbers of critically ill, lower the number of people who get COVID. In Asia where big social distancing measures have been in place for two months, they have had very strong impact. 8/x
In Asia they’ve slowed the disease by slowing social interaction. Left to its own, this disease spreads from 1 person to about 2.5 people, and then they do the same, and so on. For this disease to stop, we need to make it so that the avg person spreads it to <1 other person. 9/x
These big social distancing measures take time to work. The impact of big interventions in Wuhan China took about 3 wks to start to reverse things. And then everyday after the situation got better. In the US, we're about 7 to 10 days into this, depending on the state.10/x
To drop all these measures now would be to accept that COVID pts will get sick in extraordinary numbers all over the country, far beyond what the US health care system could bear. 11/x
Many models report that health care systems will be completely overwhelmed/collapse by the peak of cases if major social distancing is not put in place. 12/x
If a health care system in a given community stops working, can no longer provide care to the ill, the case fatality rate for COVID will be far higher than 1% – we would not be able to care for some or all of the expected 5% of recognized cases that get critically ill. 13/x
Beyond that, if hospitals were completely overwhelmed, they may struggle to provide even oxygen for some or many of the 15% of recognized cases expected to be “severely ill”. let alone provide care for other life threatening conditions. 14/x
Anyone advising the end of social distancing now, needs to fully understand what the country will look like if we do that. COVID would spread widely, rapidly, terribly, could kill potentially millions in the yr ahead with huge social and economic impact across the country. 15/x9 more posts in that tweet thread.
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@DrDaveT: I’m sure that would do wonders for the T-bill market.
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As one who hales from a family of loving, but unexceptional grand parents, I’ve quietly envied friends who can reminisce about an exotic one. As Stephen’s does here.
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I’m sure that would do wonders for the T-bill market.
That depends on a couple of things, such as (1) whether the rest of the world interpreted the action as repudiation of debt or as collection of debt, (2) how quickly it was done, (3) what other possibilities were explored first, etc. The effect on the T-bill market would be driven by the world’s estimation of the risk that their bonds would become worthless.
It would require skill and clear communication with the world. Fortunately, none of this would come to pass during the current administration.
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@DrDaveT: China is a big market for T- bills and I’m pretty sure such a move would kill it. That’s all I’m talking about. Well, that and the laws of supply and demand.
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@DrDaveT:
No, they have the actual W-2s, which include withholding.
Okay… let me rephrase. They only know your gross profits (gross income-withholding). They don’t know your mortgage, car payments, alimony, utilities, loans, medical bills, etc., which means they don’t know your net profit (spending money), or how much you have in the bank.
I know people who have almost zero income–but have a million in the bank. I know people who have high income, but are paying off lots of debt.
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@OzarkHillbilly: In a nutshell, Republicans want to give money to Jeff Bezos, and Democrats want to give it to his warehouse employees.
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Harry Moroz
@hrmoroz
For the average American the best way to tell if you have covid-19 is to cough in a rich person’s face and wait for their test results -
@OzarkHillbilly: Heh. I like it. I got a down vote for noting that a vast percentage of Americans have a lot more faith in Dr. Fauci than they do in trump. To the down voter, let me most sincerely apologize for being the bearer of bad news.
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@Mu Yixiao: All due respect, but “Reason” is a libertarian magazine. As such they have a deserved reputation for cherry picking data, elevating political theory over reality and failing to address it when those theories inevitably prove wrong. Reading such a magazine is worse than useless, and I wouldn’t credit anything that was published there.
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@Mu Yixiao: This is merely an educated guess but it seems that viruses have 2 tradeoffs, they can trend less lethal and propagate further or they can trend more lethal and propagate to fewer hosts.
It would seem that the sheer velocity of spread means this illness is trending towards the less lethal side. Meaning there are a lot of asymptomatic and mild spreaders propagating the virus. Probably the best data out there is the South Korea data because they are the only country so far that immediately committed to test everyone without restrictions. The Chinese data outside of Wuhan is probably also informative because of commitment to testing wide as possible. Their mortality rate..sans Wuhan….resolved to 0.7. South Korea is at ~9000/120 for ~ 1.4
Which is positive news for people that contract it post vaccine and proven antiviral treatment. -
They don’t know your mortgage, car payments, alimony, utilities, loans, medical bills, etc., which means they don’t know your net profit (spending money), or how much you have in the bank.
Yes, I get that. I was not proposing to attempt to distribute on the basis of wealth. I was attempting to distribute on the basis of lost income, necessarily approximately, within the subset of people who can plausibly be assumed to not have a lot of savings.
I am not worried that a few millionaire burger-flippers would get a check they don’t need. I am not sympathetic to the subset of the population with high incomes who nevertheless live paycheck to paycheck; they have credit options. I am trying to do something immediately that will, to the extent possible with the data we have, get a useful amount of money to the people who are most directly affected by the shutdown and vulnerable.
Neither would I make this the only program — there are pull (as opposed to push) options like expanded food stamps that should be pursued in parallel.
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A KY man diagnosed with coronavirus refused to quarantine until the sheriff parked a deputy outside his house. Assuming he voted, let me guess for who.
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I’m quite aware of the political leanings of Reason (I tend to lean libertarian myself). I also read Al Jazeera and BBC, as well as occasional expeditions into The Daily Beast and The Blaze–because getting multiple perspectives and interpretations helps you better understand what the actual truth might be.
Hearing 4 of the top members of the Federal Government’s health departments say essentially the same thing isn’t “useless” or political. And there are links within the article to the original statements–so you can dig deeper if you’d like.
The points to take from the article are:
1) Experts (who help to guide policy) aren’t freaking out
2) More (and more comprehensive) testing is needed to better learn what we’re dealing with
3) Nobody is saying “it’s just the flu”, but they are saying Italy is not likely to be the standard–it’s looking more like China and S. Korea.
4) The actions being taken are having an effect–though the “denominator problem” doesn’t let us know just how much. -
On the non-COVID front, I want to try a pasilla and ancho sauce with fresh tomatoes rather than tomato puree, maybe add some cilantro as well. I’d mix this with shredded beef.
When I do sauce heavy dishes, which is often, I tend to pair them with some grain that can soak up the sauce. Tortillas work well and they make enchiladas, but I’ve done that a lot lately. So maybe I just can add rice on the side and mix it a little.
But I’ve been thinking about rice and beans with a squirt of tomato paste. So I’m thinking cooking the rice in chicken broth about 3/4 of the way, then adding canned whole beans (properly cooked beans take HOURS), add a bit of tomato paste, and stir in some lentil flour as a thickener.
By all rights this should get some bacon, but there’s already meat in the entree. So maybe not.
I’m thinking of dessert, too. There’s this local, sugar-free, “yogurt” gelatin which works rather well, but I want to mix in some sliced strawberries. Problem is fresh ones right now are not very good, so I’d need to get frozen ones, preferable already sliced…
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Meh. Trump needs to stop talking about chloroquine for other reasons (like making sure lupus and rheumatoid arthritis sufferers can get their medicine), but if you’re dumb enough to drink aquarium cleaner because there was a vaguely familiar word on the box, that’s all on you.
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I just ran across a piece about how to gather information that was so good, I wanted to share it:
In circumstances that lead to a high risk of groupthink and overreach, it’s a reason to explicitly employ evidential markers when reporting claims; it’s a reason to cite and link to specific sources for specific claims rather than simply repeating them or presenting them as What Experts Are Saying, and it’s a reason for readers to spend some time following links and footnotes where they have been made available, or to significantly discount stories that don’t bother to provide them. It’s also a reason to actively seek out and cultivate second guesses, minority reports and dissenting opinions, rather than ignoring, scolding or punishing them.
[…]
The problem here is not that people will draw conclusions that are wrong, or to make decisions that turn out to be mistakes. Of course they will. If that wasn’t a real danger, then it wouldn’t be a crisis in the first place. The problem here is that if you want to draw conclusions that are less wrong, more often, — if you want to do less damage and realize more quickly when you make the wrong decision, — if you want to lower the chance of being misled — then that may mean being more selective rather than more completist in the sources of information that you pursue. And the sources to be most selective about will often be the ones that seem the most appealing from the standpoint of your own social and ideological starting-points. Consume thoughtful discussion and information, not too much, mostly data.
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The doctor said my lungs are improving and I will be discharged soon. Asked when soon would be, my doctor was vague.
Yesterday would have been my parents’ 60th wedding anniversary. I didn’t remember it till dinner time. 🙁 Mom died in 1985 and Dad in 1997.
The Olympics are postponed till next year. If we’re all alive. I definitely won’t be watching if I’m dead.
My sense of humor is still intact but all the drugs I’m on is making
me nuttier than normalunable to focus too long on anything.I can’t think of anything else dumb or funny to say.
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@Bill: Thanks for the update, I was looking for your name and hadn’t seen it yet today! Hang in there, nutty friend. 😉
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@Mister Bluster: I’ve been picturing a panicked meeting between Trump and the GOP senators on the Senate coronavirus rescue bill:
Holy underwear! Deadly pandemic? Economy collapsing? We’ve got to protect our phoney-baloney jobs, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately, immediately! Harrumph, harrumph!
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@Kathy: The average human body temperature has cooled off, so lower than the established norm is to be expected.
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A writer at the conservative Catholic journal First Things argues that they were just kidding about life being the most sacred thing. In fact, “There is a demonic side to the sentimentalism of saving lives at any cost.”
At the press conference on Friday announcing the New York shutdown, Governor Andrew Cuomo said, “I want to be able to say to the people of New York—I did everything we could do. And if everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy.”
This statement reflects a disastrous sentimentalism. Everything for the sake of physical life? What about justice, beauty, and honor? There are many things more precious than life.
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@DrDaveT: Unnecessary, but gracious. Thank you.
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@Monala:
All those years of saying, “Hey, be cool.” Who knew it would actually work? -
Before I take a nap I want to comment on something Kathy wrote yesterday about hotel thefts.
I swear I won’t be taking home my hospital room’s toilet paper when I get discharged.
A really odd discovery I made last year. I moved in both 2015 and 2019. Sometime last summer I found a pen from a California hotel that I last stayed in 2001.
On that note I’m out of here.
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@Monala:
Is this like an emulation of the time Jesus performed the miracle of making pretzels without dough?
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@gVOR08:
Dagnabbit! Now I’ve got to go cue up my copy of Blazing Saddles! Thanks! -
@Michael Reynolds: Michael, that is what the [Dad Joke] warning flag is for….
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@EddieInCA:
I just read that. Very sad indeed. And I’m sorry for the personal loss you’ve suffered in this case, as well. -
@Stormy Dragon: Has there ever been a day when the phrase “STFU Donny” was not appropriate? For a thousand different reasons every damn day? We don’t need him giving people ideas that we all end up paying for.
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Mmmmmmm…. drinking my warm Ginger Tea… mmmmmmm.
Question: What if Trump calls an end to COVID-19 distancing… and no one listens?
Will I go back to a workplace? nope.
Will I fly? Stay at hotels, visit customers? nope.Bad advice leads to bad leadership leads to no one following.
The ones that do will pay a heavy price.
I suggest that Trump schedules his usual rally and let’s use AI and cellular data to track the resulting pandemic spread. Fun for all ages!
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@Liberal Capitalist: I was thinking that today, as well. I don’t give a rat’s ass what he says, my kids still aren’t going back to school until next fall, and we are going to continue avoiding people. Especially since I live in a deep red state where people will cheer his all-seeing wisdom and sacrifice Grandma.
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Has it occurred to you the reason Trump wants to ease social distancing rules is so he can have rallies again? He’s like an addict cut off from his heroin.
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@Liberal Capitalist: @Jax: He can declare an end to the emergency but he can’t command covid to go away, or people who can’t breathe to ignore it or me to go shopping.
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Tonight will be another episode of “Project Blue Book” on the History Channel at 10:00 pm.
A young Senator John Kennedy will be in on this one. This has been a very good and fascinating series about an amazing time in our history.
I remember Blue Book was talked about a lot in the 1960’s. There was a lot of talk about the UFO invasion of Washington, DC in 1952: talk about panic. The official Air Force “explanation” was comical. Unfortunately, a lot of these secret UFO official files will never be released by the military or the Federal government. -
Question: What if Trump calls an end to COVID-19 distancing… and no one listens?
My wife’s pet scenario is this one:
TRUMP: America is now open for business again!
50 GOVERNORS: My state isn’t. Shut up, Donny. -
@Tyrell: I had to use Cortana to find out about Project Blue Book, and now I have a question. Are you one of those people who believes that The X Files is based on actual incidents?
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I recall a 70s TV show of that name, about UFOs. All I remember is there were lots of military people, and in the opening the narrator spoke of an object some Biblical personage saw.
For a while I was interested in UFOs. I read a few books by a Spanish journalist called J. J. Benitez, detailing alleged encounters with aliens, alien ships, etc. In my defense, I was young and stupid. in my further defense, around age 14 I dropped all that when I saw Sagan’s Cosmos, and began to learn real astronomy.
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@An Interested Party: the article puts trump firmly in the context of the last 50 years of Religious Right racism and eschatology.
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@Teve: Waffle House has not done very well around here in years – ever since they stopped allowing smoking. I love their hash browns.
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@Just nutha ignint cracker: Some may well be based on accounts from people, maybe even military and government agents.
My favorite “X File” episodes are “Triangle”: Fox Mulder goes up against the Nazis, and “First Person Shooter”:about a wild virtual reality video game that gets too real – that one was really ahead of it’s time.
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