Outside the Beltway

Another List

Putting down markers for future reference.

Steven L. Taylor
50

Comments

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stands onstage listening to applause as he arrives to announce that he will once again run for U.S. president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election during an event at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. November 15, 2022. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Via CNN (Trump’s master plan for a radical reformation of the US government) comes another list. I am putting it here along with my prior post and will likely write similar posts over the next several weeks and months.

I think it is important to be able to remember what was promised and see what actually happens. We are, unfortunately, moving beyond speculation to an empirical question about what the second Trump term will look like. If it ends up that I, and others, have indeed been hysterical and over the top and Trump ends up being harmless, I will genuinely be happy. Don’t get me wrong, I do love being right, but would gladly trade being right for a better outcome for my country and the world.

Here’s this list:

The ambitious promises, if enacted, would transform society. Some of his most-repeated promises on the campaign trail include:

I think some version of mass deportation is coming. The questions are: How mass and how ugly?

I expect tariffs and some tax cuts, more likely for corporations than anyone else.

Part of me thinks that surely even Trump wouldn’t empower Musk, RFK, Jr., and Walker while part of me thinks that of course he will.

I expect all kinds of regulations to be killed and for an attempt to be made against birthright citizenship. It would not shock me if SCOTUS went along with the latter.

At any rate, now we wait to see.

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50 responses to “Another List”

  1. Mike in Arlington Avatar
    Mike in Arlington

    One of the things RFK Jr. promised is to allow the sale of raw milk again. When the US required all milk to be pasteurized, it cut the infant and child mortality in half.

    He also wants to remove Fluoride from the water. When Calgary’s water fluoridation equipment had to be retired (IIRC, it was due to age), they didn’t replace it immediately. The amount of children needing intravenous antibiotics because their teeth were rotting out of their heads increased by 600%.

    He also wants to send people “addicted” to antidepressants and ADHD drugs to an organic farm for several years.

    And this is all on top of his false and dishonest anti-vaccine advocacy.

    8
  2. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    It’s not well known and even less well remembered that Reagan, St. Ronnie of the Californias Himself, raised an awful lot of taxes and eliminated tons of loopholes and exceptions, when he realized his magic tax cuts were losing the government a lot of revenue. It’s even hard to look it up, so big has the Laffer Fallacy grown in the popular imagination.

    But, at least, the mediocre actor tried to right his massive wrongs. Not very well, not effectively, not without massive debt increases, and not without further harming his own revenue goals by a second round of tax reductions.

    The orange fuhrer won’t even go that far. We know he doubles down after he makes a mistake. the bigger the blinder, the harder he doubles down on it. So whatever he does wrong, look for him to find a way to make it even worse.

    At that, Reagan had a lot more room to increase the US national debt. The fuhrer has less room, and more nervous US treasury bond holders. He may go through with his default fantasies, which would be the absolute worst idea ever in the sphere of economics. it’s bad when a small low income country defaults on debt. it’s terrible when a country like Greece comes close. Guess what comes next.

    He won’t even care if he can 1) blame it on someone else, and 2) leave the cleanup to the next guy.

    3
  3. James Joyner Avatar
    James Joyner

    While I think much of Trump’s stump rantings are fantasy, I think these are likely right:

    I think some version of mass deportation is coming. The questions are: How mass and how ugly?

    I haven’t the foggiest idea of how this would actually be accomplished and I don’t think Trump has given it much thought. I think business interests will rally against more than a token effort. But, yes, I don’t see how a true mass deportation could be accomplished without absolutely horrific actions.

    I expect tariffs and some tax cuts, more likely for corporations than anyone else.

    Almost certainly.

    I expect all kinds of regulations to be killed

    Quite possibly, especially now that SCOTUS has radically reduced agency rule-making power. Last go around, the Administrative Procedures Act kept biting Trump in the ass. I suspect his team will be better at it this go-round.

    an attempt to be made against birthright citizenship. It would not shock me if SCOTUS went along with the latter.

    If he’s talked about this, I missed it but it would certainly be consistent with his agenda. And, yes, I could see SCOTUS ruling that the intent of that provision of the 14th Amendment was to grant citizenship to freed slaves, not to children of parents who were here illegally. Especially since the concept of illegal immigration didn’t exist then.

    3
  4. Mike in Arlington Avatar
    Mike in Arlington

    @James Joyner: I think w/r/t mass deportations, Trump will push it as far as he can until he thinks he can get away with. And if he doesn’t get significant blowback, he’ll continue to push it.

    His advisors have openly discussed going after legal aliens as well as naturalized citizens, so there’s a wide swath of people that could be targeted.

    3
  5. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @Mike in Arlington:

    His advisors have openly discussed going after legal aliens as well as naturalized citizens, so there’s a wide swath of people that could be targeted.

    A wide swath of brown and black people who will be targeted.

    4
  6. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    A lot of this stuff is just bottom-barrel WSJ editorial fodder, where anything that works against a specific business is not only automatically suspect but criminal. That was their whole deal with Covid. Just whine like a Mob boss and lie. But you can’t make a government of people like that.

    That’s what makes Trump sui generis. Nobody, and I mean nobody, has ever governed like he did with Covid. Going back to Reagan, as crazy as some of his advisors were, they wouldn’t have been telling him to ignore the global pandemic spreading like wildfire and lie about it. (He did that with AIDS, but it doesn’t work if it’s not gay people.)

    6
  7. Kingdaddy Avatar
    Kingdaddy

    A theme running through these bullet points is the lack of any real expertise in what the people in charge are supposed to be doing (RFK Jr. on health care and science, Musk on economics, etc.).

    3
  8. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    I think there’s going to be a lot of deportation theater. You know, videos of ICE agents busting down doors and handcuffing people that look “other” and releasing them in Mexico. It doesn’t have to be effective, it just has to look effective.

    Now, the people caught in this are going to suffer, and they are going to suffer unjustly. They will get smacked around because they were convenient targets. Don’t get me wrong.

    Oh, and I’ll bet the big majority of these high-profile deportation dramas happen in California. Some will happen in Texas, because Texans will want to feel like someone is “doing something”. There it might play out that Abbot is “handing over” illegal aliens for deportation or something.

    But deporting 10 million people is not even possible. But the one thing Trump won’t do is say that something can’t be done.

    4
  9. Jen Avatar
    Jen

    I agree with the assessment that all sorts of regulations are likely on the chopping block.

    This really is concerning, because as I’ve said before, these aren’t proposed and enacted out of thin air with the sole intent of tormenting corporations. They almost always are addressing harm that has already been observed.

    If they are successful at rolling back food and medicine regulations, I’m going to recommend that all y’all stop eating chicken purchased at the grocery store or through the restaurant supply chain. Factory farmed poultry, due to how it is raised and processed, is very prone to bacterial contamination (the CDC estimates 1 out of every 25 packages sold has salmonella contamination). It’s already high and removing regulation will cause this number to skyrocket.

    4
  10. Jc Avatar
    Jc

    Right. Will a Canadian or eastern European visa overstay get tossed in the same detention center as a Mexican worker?

    The mass deportation thing is a logistical nightmare. Alot of people in charge will be standing around looking at each other for what to do. Whatever it looks like will be a massive cluster****. Is there any type of outline, even rudimentary, on how it will be done? Or are “they” drafting that up now? I don’t remember seeing anything.

    The easier ones will be the tax cuts and deregulation and tariff related promises.

    3
  11. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    @Kingdaddy: We might well see a very strange version of “going Galt”. There’s a libertarian fantasy where all the productive people in the country effectively go on strike and become hermits, and watch the country spiral into ruin because nobody else can do anything.

    We might get the same effect in this administration from the fact that nobody who knows anything wants to work in a Trump administration.

    4
  12. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    @James Joyner:

    If being born here doesn’t make you a citizen, how many of us can actually prove we’re citizens? You may say, “well, my parents were citizens”, but how do you prove that?

    Can you legally document your lineage all the way back to whichever of your ancestors who first arrived in this country? Can you legally document their naturalization?

    3
  13. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    @Jay L Gischer:

    Sure, but why won’t it happen? Because it’s impossible, or because the deep state is keeping it from happening?

    What Republicans are good at is zeroing in on people/ideas with little power and then blowing them up until they are the center of the entire RW media complex. Look at what they did with 40 students on a lawn at a college or Haitians eating cats. And it’s not like Trump likes to govern. He’ll be happy to keep on doing rallies against the enemies in the government holding back his perfect amazing plans.

    2
  14. Jc Avatar
    Jc

    @Jay L Gischer: I see this in the private Corporate world. Many got and stay in their position simply by adulation and adherence to the owner. They don’t actually do anything, but have a job and a title.

    I would hope that would not be the case here. I’ll estimate maybe 30% of those placed in charge will have some inkling of how to manage and execute, but as last time, the majority did not. People who can lead don’t like to be abused, they leave. Those that don’t mind being abused, usually are not effective and just mess things up

    1
  15. a country lawyer Avatar
    a country lawyer

    With mass deportations food prices will spike because of crops rotting in the fields. Construction will come to a standstill and inflation will soar.

    7
  16. Sleeping Dog Avatar
    Sleeping Dog

    What a Crack Down on Immigration could mean for Cheap Milk

    Free link from the NY Times Magazine

    The article notes that when Georgia required employers to verify citizenship/work visas, the peach crop rotted in the fields.

    2
  17. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    I’ll lay my marker down that pretty much all of those won’t happen or to the extent they do happen, their scope and effects will be much smaller than advertised.

    As usual, I come at this – like most things – first in terms of practicality and pragmatism. I evaluate proposals first on whether implementation and execution is possible or practical. That weeds out a huge amount of stuff that politicians in general claim they will do, and Trump is no exception.

    Of that list, the regulations on climate change are the most likely because that is in the Executive wheelhouse, although I predict liberals will come to appreciate the end of Chevron deferrence (even if they won’t admit it) in challenging Trump’s control of the administrative state.

    2
  18. Jc Avatar
    Jc

    @Andy: yeah, a good example of this is “The Wall”. It will be huge and cover the entire border and paid for by Mexico. In the end was just replacing existing barriers with updated ones, fences with bigger fences and net new construction of border walls/barriers was minimal. And of course Mexico contributed zero dollars.

    Would think most of these new initiatives will follow the same model and path. Can only go on past promises and results, otherwise it’s all speculation, as there are no hard defined plans. Just broad statements

    6
  19. gVOR10 Avatar
    gVOR10

    I expect all kinds of regulations to be killed and for an attempt to be made against birthright citizenship. It would not shock me if SCOTUS went along with the latter.

    Kill regulations? Oh yeah. That was the primary goal when the Kochtopus started this 40+ years ago. SCOTUS kill birthright citizenship? This Court? If it comes up, I’ll be shocked if they don’t.

    1
  20. Jen Avatar
    Jen

    @Andy: I will cautiously agree, to an extent.

    Actual governing is hard, and most of the competent people in Trump’s orbit are gone.

    Even JD Vance doesn’t have the background to do as much harm dismantling as he’s likely hoping to do.

    I’m less sold on the end of Chevron deference, simply because I think actual experts employed by agencies (rather than the courts or Congressional staff) having the final say on complex regulations makes sense, but who knows.

    1
  21. Assad K Avatar
    Assad K

    Reforming the country’s health and food systems with help from vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    Well…. changing, anyway. Reforming implies improvement.

    Building a new missile defense shield with help from former NFL player Herschel Walker
    !!!!

    1
  22. Jen Avatar
    Jen

    @gVOR10: Laying bare the utter nonsense claim that somehow “originalism” and not “wtf we feel like today” is the driving force behind current SCOTUS.

    1
  23. ptfe Avatar
    ptfe

    Predictions for the next 4 years:

    1. Abortion regulations will continue to get worse in the South, and Northern states will shore up their laws against restriction. Women will die from lack of proper care. We’ll continue to hear these horror stories. SCOTUS will rule that an abortion in any state can be prosecuted as though it happened in the state of residence of the person in question. Women will be charged with murder, and anyone who helps women do this will be prosecuted.

    2. Trump will massively increase executive authority. He will try to implement as many “loyalty” items as he can in the federal workforce. He’ll get a lot of pushback, but SCOTUS will back him. The presidency will become significantly more powerful, and its fingerprints will be on a lot more agencies. Expect more normalized corruption and graft.

    3. Trump will have his not-the-brightest team write a sloppy tariff plan, the House will pass it eagerly, and the Senate will vote for something that’s less insane. Reconciliation will mitigate the worst effects. Large companies will get a break, small companies will be boxed out by new tariffs, and the worst effects will be limited.

    4. There will be yet another Tax Breaks For Rich People scheme that will cut the federal budget by a large amount without notably reducing services. Included in this will be removing taxes on tips, but the safeguards in that legislation will create loopholes for people to make surprisingly large amounts of money on “tips” in basically any capacity.

    5. Thanks to tariffs and tax cuts and general uncertainty, the economy will slide toward recession in the next 4 years. This is also based on historical trends: Republican presidents almost always create economic problems.

    6. Climate change will accelerate, and the US will essentially stop caring. Trump will peel back emissions regulations haphazardly across manufacturing in a bid to increase manufacturing capacity. He will use the cost of tariffs to justify this, because, after all, we need more manufacturing in the US! This will cause significant environmental backsliding locally. The US will pull out of several international agreements and organizations to avoid international climate accountability. Trump will say “but what about China?!?” and the press will go for it.

    7. Immigrants will be targeted for deportation only in relatively isolated communities. We’ll see preferential removal from mid-size towns, since these are places to get bang for the federal buck without visibly harming the national economy.

    8. There will be increased overt violence overall. Trump supporters will be emboldened to act against trans people. Police departments will be largely unaccountable. Protests will result. The displeasure of the Left will be met with more police brutality. I don’t expect BLM 2, but would not be surprised if we see it.

    9. Internationally, I expect Ukraine to be a shrunken mass within 6 months, and I expect Israel will, shortly after inauguration, take over Gaza even more aggressively but leave its other neighbors alone. This will be Bibi’s gift to Trump, who will then proclaim that he has averted war in the ME. The press will go for it.

    One common theme to watch for is “the press will go for it”, because in 8 years the press has always gone for it with Trump. They’ll breathlessly repeat what he says, they’ll act like he’s an honest actor, they’ll do their best to interpret his words charitably.

    8
  24. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    He’ll be happy to keep on doing rallies against the enemies in the government holding back his perfect amazing plans.

    Say what you will, it worked for Reagan as he continually chided Congress for not implementing “even one” of his commission on deficit reduction suggestions while he never stopped requesting budget for those same programs.

    3
  25. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    And frankly, I’m okay with whatever happens. We can’t say “the majority didn’t vote for this” any more. It did.

    1
  26. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @ptfe: Sadly, abortion is not a clean cut North/South, Union/Confederacy issue. I only wish it was.

  27. James Joyner Avatar
    James Joyner

    @Stormy Dragon: I’ve got an American birth certificate, as does pretty much anyone born in the US in the last 70 years or so. I’ve managed to get a copy pretty easily, too, despite the passage of almost six decades. It’s a real problem for those born a very long time ago, especially in rural areas.

    1
  28. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @James Joyner:

    Uh-huh.

    Let me quote article 50 of the Constitution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics:

    Article 50. In accordance with the interests of the people and in order to strengthen and develop the socialist system, citizens of the USSR are guaranteed freedom of speech, of the press, and of assembly, meetings, street processions and demonstrations.

    Exercise of these political freedoms is ensured by putting public buildings, streets and squares at the disposal of the working people and their organisations, by broad dissemination of information, and by the opportunity to use the press, television, and radio.

    What was the state of free speech in the USSR between 1917 and 1990?

    I call it the Pompey principle: cease quoting laws at those of us holding swords.

    Combined with the Duncan principle: Those in power will do what they want unless someone stops them.

    1
  29. Jack Avatar
    Jack

    Dont you think that a lot of this was theatre, which of course never happens in political campaigns? I cite specifically the Walker thing. If Hershall Walker is put in charge of missiles I will join you all in calling for the 25th.

    Did you make a list for Biden? The country is a mess, as just adjudicated by the electorate. How’d it work out?

    This is one of my biggest observations and complaints. Selective outrage and expectations.

    1
  30. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    @just nutha:

    Reagan was at least reacting to a structural problem–turning Keynesian economics on its head and using the government to pump up the investor/asset class was an answer to problems of the 70s. Same goes with the terrifying crime and chaos of Biden’s America. Nobody squatting in a building in Tribeca in 1978 was going to argue with a conservative about the conditions of NYC. Trump’s entire plan on crime, disorder, and how bad Biden’s America was is based upon a reaction to something that is immediately debatable as a problem in and of itself. You have randos in MAGA hats screaming about how terrible it is in places where it’s 2.5K a month to rent a studio.

    I’m less scared of his stupid promises than what’s going to happen when a fumbling attempt grinds to a halt. Outside of tax cuts, there are very few Republicans who can even do the math and reading to figure out which parts of the government are required and which could be cut from a staunchly reactionary standpoint. Vance is like the smartest of all of them, and he’s basically a guy on a podcast who has a solution to a problem he learned about in the discussion. And Trump has made them all dumber, because to play his game you have to act dumb. Sooner or later that catches up with you.

  31. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    @just nutha: Ever since the chatter started on Musk’s Commission to improve government efficiency, I was reminded of the Grace Commission and its output. While ostensibly looking for ways to make the Federal Government more efficient in its processes, it really just went after programs it didn’t approve of. As such, it was a failure. I suspect the Musk commission will meet similar failures.

  32. Jack Avatar
    Jack

    Isn’t it amazing how quickly things can change? People know whats coming.

    The Houthis have decided that “our actions were just defensive” but we are going to stop now.
    Hamas is kicked out of Qatar.
    Russia is open to negotiations, as is Zelensky.
    Just wait, the Arabs will decide Palestine is a problem. and their benefactor, Iran.
    I wouldn’t want to be at WHO or the UN. That’s not an earthquake, that’s you quaking in your boots.

    The weakness of Biden and Obama is over.

    To coin a phrase: the adults are back in charge.

  33. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Jen:

    I’m less sold on the end of Chevron deference, simply because I think actual experts employed by agencies (rather than the courts or Congressional staff) having the final say on complex regulations makes sense, but who knows.

    IMO Chevron deference is mostly fine when it’s actually the experts making those judgments. Increasingly, however, it’s the political elements of administrations that decide they want to do something, troll the sea of existing law and regulation to find a phrase that might allow it (or just make something up out of whole cloth), and then tell the regulatory function to make it happen. This is something Trump will surely try again as he did the last time around. What has/is becoming a de facto shadow legislature under the unilateral control of the Executive branch needs to have checks from the courts.

  34. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Jack: I do think the Walker thing was theater. The rest of it? I am less certain.

    1
  35. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Jack:

    To coin a phrase: the adults are back in charge.

    This remains to be seen. And it will be clear, on balance.

    2
  36. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    @Jack:
    Have some pride. Even if Trump is 3/4ths of the Daddy you dream he is, that’s still not how anything works in life.

    There’s no evidence that a Houthi spokesman announced the “complete cessation” of the group’s operations in international waters in the hours after Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election.

    One post on X, which has been viewed more than two million times, says (when translated from Arabic using Google): “Houthi spokesman: Our operations in international waters were only defensive, and we announce their final cessation.”

    It has been screenshotted and included in posts by other accounts on X as well as Facebook and Threads, some including the caption: “Trump Has Just Been President Elect For A Few Hours & The Terrorist Houthi Spokesman Has Issued A Statement Ceasing Terror Operations On High Seas.”

    But there is no evidence the Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, have stopped their operations in the Red Sea. Credible reporting from the region does not mention any such statement or a ceasefire. In the last few hours, the group has reportedly shot down a US drone and has taken responsibility for a ballistic missile attack on an airbase in southern Israel.

    A statement by the Houthi leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, posted on 7 November, after Mr Trump won the US election said (translated from Arabic by Google): “Our operations continue in the seas and deep in the occupied territories, with a decision to deal with the camouflage operations of Israeli ships.”

    1
  37. Steve V Avatar
    Steve V

    I think there’s a pretty good chance he’ll take a run at Obamacare. They’ll put in high risk pools or whatever republicans were waving around six years ago, and proclaim that they’ve enacted the greatest policy of the modern era.

    2
  38. Paul L. Avatar
    Paul L.

    Here is a another Trump promise to add to the list:
    The US Law Enforcement and Intelligence communities needs the support, appropriate degree of subservience and complete, unquestioning obedience of citizens not a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” like the House Committee on Un-American Activities.
    Patriot Act II!!!!! Repeal FISA! because you have nothing to hide.

    Trump’s third idea was about the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) courts. These courts permit intelligence agencies to spy on people. He said, “We will totally reform FISA courts, which are so corrupt that the judges seem to not care when they are lied to in warrant applications.” He was critical of the FISA courts for their role in what he called “fraudulent warrant applications.” Trump said that many FISA judges are aware that these cases are wrong but don’t do anything about it. He promises to change this practice.

    Trump wants to set up a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” to find and report any hidden wrongdoing by government organizations. Trump says that this committee will work to get documents that show what he calls “deep-state buying, censorship, and corruption” out of secret and into the public eye. “We will set up a truth and reconciliation commission to declassify and publish all documents on the buying, censorship, and corruption by the deep state,” he said. He says that this move would make these powerful organizations more open by letting the public see how they work on the inside.

  39. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    @Steve V:

    In a way I hope they try. Very few people can afford to pay out of pocket/be completely screwed by worse insurance for any condition which is a real risk. If there’s a way to beat Trump’s agenda back, this would be the place to do it.

    1
  40. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    @Mike in Arlington:

    He [RFKJr] also wants to send people “addicted” to antidepressants and ADHD drugs to an organic farm for several years.

    I’d like to hear more about these organic farms before I dismiss it out of hand. Would insurance pay for it? Would I have to work the farm? Would there be goats and llamas? Maybe some cute little lambs and bunnies?

    I might not mind checking out for a few years to an organic farm to “detox.”

    If the organic farm is actually just sitting below a rotting whale head wearing a plastic tarp with airholes cut into it… I could give it a pass.

  41. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @Jack: Time will tell. And I’m really really rooting for Trump to rise to the occasion, but I’m 72 years old and can remember “who knew health care was so complicated” and “someday, like a miracle, COVID will just go away” and “it’s killing less people than the flu.” Count me among the skeptics.

    5
  42. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    @James Joyner:

    If birthright citizenship is no longer a thing, your birthday certificate doesn’t prove you’re a citizen any more, only that you were born here. You could be an anchor baby.

    1
  43. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    @Gustopher:

    It means you’ll be an involuntary harvester to replace the migrant workers that got deported.

    2
  44. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @just nutha:

    Don’t forget bogus cures like ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Or suicide cures like injecting bleach.

    At that, chances of a new global pandemic featuring a dangerous respiratory disease are low. Still, we had SARS in 2002. H1N1 flu in 2009, and MERS in 2012 before the trump virus struck in 2019 (2020 globally). The A(H5N1) bird flu that is affecting cattle does not seem to be either very transmissible among humans, nor very serious. but with viruses, this can change in short order. This is why I recommend getting a flu shot this year, just in case. It won’t stop the spread if it breaks out, but it should afford some protection from severe disease.

    Then, too, if what passes for an administration from Jan 2025 does go anti-vax, whether Jr is or isn’t in charge, we may be more concerned with measles and, worse, polio.

    The latter worries me more due to the Sabin oral vaccine: It’s effective, but uses weakened virus. Fecal matter from children who take it carry some of it, and these can become infectious if immune cells don’t take them up (and they won’t outside the body). It matters little in a vaccinated population, but in a largely unvaccinated one, the merchants of misinformation will blame the vaccine for any outbreak, leading to fewer vaccinations, leading to more dead children.

    Now I’m getting depressed.

    1
  45. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Jack:
    The Houthi are cowed primarily by the recent B-2 strikes (by Biden, it should be noted), and by the obvious signals that if they keep on pushing the SA/SY alliance will be off the leash.
    (Also, RAF strikes, though not as large, were a marker)
    And that the Egyptians are pissed off.

    The main Houthi problem is, the IDF strikes have damaged Iranian missile production, which combined with the Alliance air/naval ops are going to cramp their capacity to reload. Given the general annoyance they have caused, they’d be well advised to avoid calling attention to themselves.

    The Israeli strikes on Iran and Hezbollah missile capabilities, plus US use of B-2’s have significantly altered the strategic calculus in the Middle East.

    Qatar re Hamas is responding primarily to Saudi, (and Egyptian?) pressure.
    They dislike both the Israeli unrealism about a post-conflict regime in Gaza, and also the ongoing idiocy of the Hamas “defiance dance” act.
    And also probably see a potential realignment since Iran has been hit hard both in its own putative missile power, and that of its proxies, Hezbollah in particular.

    Other signs: Druze militia in Lebanon have lately told Hezb to piss off out of their areas.

    This has zero to do with Trump.

    5
  46. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Jack:

    Russia is open to negotiations, as is Zelensky.

    Well, yes.
    They always have been.
    The question is, on what terms.
    Russia would love a “negotiation” that wrecked Ukrainian resistance, and left them poised to finish the job at a time of their choosing.
    See “Munich Agreement, 1938”.

    Just wait, the Arabs will decide Palestine is a problem. and their benefactor, Iran.

    Wut?
    This has, essentially, been the case since 1979. If not 1967.
    And all depends upon which “Arabs” you are referring to, and in what context.

    Not to mention the massive Iranian popular antipathy for Sunnis in general, Arabs in particular, and Hamas especially.
    As opposed to the Pasdaran ideologues.

    But that matters little compared to the problem of setting up a stable Israel/Palestinian situation that is tolerable to both sides, and shuts down the general Islamic antipathy to Israel re the West Bank, and the potential Israeli problems re trade with Europe and Turkey.
    Israel can cut a short-term deal with the sheikhs.
    But the sheikhs stand on unstable sands.

    5
  47. JohnSF Avatar
    JohnSF

    @Jack:

    The weakness of Biden and Obama is over

    And exactly who was President of the United States, 2017 to 2021?
    Make no mistake, the last time I ever hear of Jake Sullivan, I’ll open a bottle of champagne to celebrate the event.

    However, he at least had a concept of a core strategic interest.
    Most of Trump’s coterie could not find that that if it was printed on their arse, and they had a map, and a torch.
    Try NSC-68 and work on from there.

    Or the Atlantic Charter, come to that.

    3
  48. wr Avatar
    wr

    @JohnSF: “This has zero to do with Trump.”

    But this is going to be the game. If anything good happens anywhere in the world, it’s because of Trump. If anything bad happens, it’s because of Biden.

    3
  49. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @JohnSF:

    And exactly who was President of the United States, 2017 to 2021?

    Vacant.

    There was someone who sat at the Resolute desk and used the title, but he cannot ever in this universe by any reasonable conception be regarded as more than a pretend president.

    1
  50. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    @Jack:
    Did you kind of secretly enjoy it when @JohnSF: spanked you? And so publicly! Did English school boys and strict headmasters come into play?

    Don’t try to talk about concepts, Drew, you’re not a thinker.

    1

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