A new poll indicates that the top tier Democrats lead President Trump among Latino voters by as much as 40 percent, a number that, if it holds, could have a significant impact on the outcome of the Presidential race in a numbers of states:
A new poll released Tuesday shows all top-tier Democratic presidential candidates leading President Trump by more than 40 percentage points among Hispanic registered voters nationwide.
The Univision poll, conducted by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion Research, shows that 73 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed plan to vote for a Democratic candidate, while only 16 percent plan to vote for Trump.
That’s a drop for Trump, who won around 19 percent of the Hispanic vote according to 2016 polling by Latino Decisions
Exit polls showed Trump winning as much as 29 percent of the Hispanic vote, but that figure has been disputed as exit polls tend to be inaccurate when measuring minorities.
Trump also fares poorly against specific Democratic presidential candidates, with the biggest gaps in direct match-ups against former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
But Trump’s support in direct match-ups is also highest against Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the two Democratic front-runners more closely identified with the progressive wing of the party.
Biden leads Trump in national Hispanic voter intent 71 percent to 15 percent, according to the poll, while Sanders has a 71 percent to 18 percent lead.
Warren and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), the other two Democratic front-runners in most polls, each have 65 percent Hispanic support in match-ups against Trump.
In a direct match-up against Harris, Trump would get 16 percent of Hispanic votes, while he would garner 20 percent against Warren, according to the poll.
The poll also measured match-ups between Trump and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
Castro leads Trump among Hispanics 66 percent to 18 percent, and Booker leads 65 percent to 21 percent.
Biden and Sanders also have strong leads among Hispanic voters for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to the poll.
Biden has the support of 21 percent of respondents, while 20 percent support Sanders.
By way of reference, it worth noting that President Trump received 28% of the Latino vote in the 2016 election according to Exit Polls. This actually came as somewhat of a surprise given the position that Trump took as a candidate on immigration issues, his campaign promise to build a border wall that Mexico would pay for, and the disparaging remarks he made about immigrants in general Mexicans in particular. This was roughly comparable to the 27% of the Latino vote that Mitt Romney received in 2012 although not as good as the 31% that John McCain received in 2008, the 46% of the Latino vote that George W. Bush received in 2004, or the 35% share that he received in 2000. By way of further comparison, Bob Dole received 21% of the Latino vote in 1996, George H.W. Bush received 25% in 1992 and 30% in 1988, and Ronald Reagan received 34% in 1984 and 37% in 1980. In other words, if these numbers hold up through Election Day, then President Trump would receive the smallest share of the Latino vote of any Republican nominee in the previous ten Presidential elections.
The fact that Latino voters are so turned off by Trump is not surprising, of course. While Trump’s rhetoric during the campaign was just that, the actual policies that he has implemented since becoming President, specifically on matters involving immigration, has done more than enough to demonstrate to Latino Americans how he feels about them and what he would do if he were re-elected. As I said, this includes everything from the border wall and the family separation policy to his Administration’s barbaric treatment of children who have arrived at the border. For Latino Americans, the past three years have been nothing but a constant assault by an Administration that is doing everything it can to send the message that people like them are not welcome in Donald Trump’s America.
If these numbers hold up through Election Day 2020, then they could have a significant impact on the outcome in crucial battleground states such as Florida as well as potential battlegrounds such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, all of which have growing Latino populations. The problem that Democrats face in this regard is that Latino voters have not tended to turn out in nearly the kind of numbers that Democrats would need for them to make a difference in these states. If that can be turned around next year then it could pose a real problem for Trump in the aforementioned states, or perhaps others. If not, then it could be another missed opportunity for Democrats.
