Outside the Beltway

Missed COVID Milestones

They’re still grim but less noticed.

James Joyner
24

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Last September, to no small amount of criticism, President Biden declared the COVID pandemic over. He was crystal clear as to what he meant:

“The pandemic is over,” Biden said in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired Sunday night. “We still have a problem with Covid. We’re still doing a lot of work on it. But the pandemic is over.

Since I had come to the same conclusion considerably earlier, I defended him:

It seems obvious to me that Biden was making a statement about public policy, not epidemiology. COVID is still with us. The virus is mutating to survive against the vaccines. It’s still killing a lot of people. But the fact of the matter is that the general public, even those who were cheerfully compliant with masking, social distancing, and vaccinations, are simply over it. Outside the most vulnerable populations, people simply aren’t interested in masking and other restrictions to getting on with their lives nearly three years into this thing.

So, for example, even though CDC guidelines, local infection rates, and past DoD policy would seem to indicate that we should be back to masking and lower occupancy levels at work, we have been given updated guidance that puts that decision at the discretion of the base commander who is very unlikely to return us to previous levels of caution. Whether that’s smart is debatable. But, again, even in a military organization where people are accustomed to following orders and living under austere conditions, there’s just no appetite for going back.

For whatever reason, it occurred to me that I long ago stopped checking the COVID death tolls, something that I did at least daily during the early stages of the pandemic. Indeed, the last of my “grim milestone” posts came on May 14, 2022—almost a year ago now—when I noted “Over a Million Americans Dead from COVID,” which was especially noteworthy not just for the roundness of the number but because a third or more of those deaths could have been avoided.

Ten months later, another 122,000 Americans have died:

That’s more than double the highest estimate of the number who died in the latest flu season—possibly as much as seven times. We have chalked it up as normal, like deaths from car accidents or chronic obesity. I’m reminded of McDonald’s, which stopped bothering to count how many hamburgers they’d sold back in 1994.

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24 responses to “Missed COVID Milestones”

  1. Argon Avatar
    Argon

    It’s the ‘new normal’, an additional, infectious burden on our species.

    Recently, Covid ripped through another geriatric care facility, killing about 5 and infecting many of the residents and staff.

    What we can’t allow to become the new normal is the weaponized stupidity of antivaxxers, who are pushing harder against measles and other innoculations.

    10
  2. Mu Yixiao Avatar
    Mu Yixiao

    President Biden declared the COVID.

    I think you a word, there. 🙂

    6
  3. gVOR08 Avatar
    gVOR08

    Yesterday at Marginal Revolution Tyler Cowen posted on GOP passed restrictions on public health authorities.

    Conservative and libertarian forces have defanged much of the nation’s public health system through legislation and litigation as the world staggers into the fourth year of covid.

    The general tone in comments is celebratory. Those peoples’ heads are in a completely different universe.

    5
  4. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @Argon:

    Measles worries me most.

    Prior to the vaccine, most people caught measles in childhood. Children fare better against it, though some grow very ill and a few die. Adults, though, don’t fare as well.

    The disease is still rare because vaccination remains high. If rates drop, we won’t so much see measles outbreaks taking down swaths of children, but rather taking down adults who were not vaccinated against it in childhood.

    Counter to this, we have more and better antiviral drugs now, and better supportive care as well. So maybe it won’t be that bad. Still, given what we’ve been learning on waning immunity over time, I’d consider a booster.

    As to COVID, it might be winding down. I’m confident in the long-term vaccine protection against severe disease. those who’ve been infected might have similar protection in the future, too. But I worry a more virulent variant might arise, given how much the trump virus still circulates, and wreak all kinds of havoc.

    Given what we know of flu, it’s just about certain a very virulent SARS-CoV-2 variant will arise someday. Also given our long experience with flu, it may prove good at evading prior protection from vaccination and infection.

    It’s been almost a year since my last booster. aside form the Omicron polyvalent boosters, there’s been no recommendation for other boosters. Just the same, I intend to look for one in the near future, whichever I can get. I also still mask outside home, and will continue to do so for a long time.

    2
  5. Sleeping Dog Avatar
    Sleeping Dog

    Last week, for the first time in months, I looked at the NH map showing infection rates by county. Except for one rated moderate, all reported low infection rates and in MA that is generally true as well. Given that we are still in the ‘in door’ socialization season, the low infection rate was a surprise.

    Anecdotally, in my wider social circle, about half of the people who have contracted the virus, had recently flown.

    1
  6. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    FWIW, I referenced a WaPo OpEd last month (January?) from a legitimate researcher (i.e. not some kookie trumper) who called into question our current fatality count. Specifically, they challenged the fact that any death where the patient had tested positive for COVID was counted as a COVID death. They felt that a significant number of those deaths were from people where COVID did not contribute meaningfully to their death. I have no opinion on this myself, so just pass this along.

    When I read that, however, I thought of another thing that might be distorting the death rate. If it is true that anyone that tests positive is counted as a COVID death regardless of symptoms or underlying disease state, and that virtually everyone who goes into a hospital is tested for COVID, as is just about anyone who presents with flu-like symptoms, then I have to wonder what the false positive rate is for current COVID tests? I’m not curious enough to go down the rabbit hole, but I do wonder.

    2
  7. CSK Avatar
    CSK

    @Sleeping Dog:

    Yep. I got Covid this past January following a trip that involved flying. Planes are just giant Petri dishes, or peachtree dishes, as Marge Taylor Greene would say.

    5
  8. Tony W Avatar
    Tony W

    It has become fashionable of late among surviving anti-vaxxers to pretend that they were correct.

    It’s like they never heard of survivorship bias.

    It’s also incredibly disrespectful to those who died, particularly those who needlessly died from misinformation after a vaccine was widely available.

    4
  9. Sleeping Dog Avatar
    Sleeping Dog

    @CSK:

    My wife’s BF and her husband are currently enjoying an ocean view in Honolulu, while recovering from a bout of Covid, probably contracted on the what 8-10 hour travel time from here.

    Another friend, who after avoiding Covid for about 2 years, has had it twice in the last year, the only change in her lifestyle is that she’s back to traveling on business several times a month.

    1
  10. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @CSK:

    Planes are relatively safe a few minutes after the engines start and the doors are closed, but with a few caveats:

    1) you’re not sitting within three rows of someone who has COVID
    2) people don’t move around the cabin much
    3) no cabin crew has COVID

    There’s no certainty for 1 and 3.

    That said, the really dangerous part for catching COVID on a trip is the airport. Specifically the jet bridge, which not ventilated and tends to get crowded.

    Inside the plane, there’s little ventilation before engine start, even if the doors are opened. During boarding there are lots of people in the aisles. That’s when transmission is most likely.

    The moral of the story is: wear a mask at the airport, and during flight as well.

    3
  11. CSK Avatar
    CSK

    @Sleeping Dog:
    I took a plane in Nov. 2021 and didn’t get Covid. Then again, I was masked and so was everyone else.

    @Kathy:
    Considering that I had to hang around the airport for what seemed like hours, I’m not surprised.

    1
  12. Sleeping Dog Avatar
    Sleeping Dog

    @Kathy:

    It’s reasonable to say that being in any crowded place, particularly if it is confined and/or you’re there for an extended period of time, raises the risk of infection. Unfortunately flying, both the flight and time spent in the terminal tics all those boxes.

    We were at a concert Friday and were among the few that were masked, I was curious to see if we would remain among the Covid avoiders. So far so good.

    1
  13. gVOR08 Avatar
    gVOR08

    @MarkedMan: I claim no expertise, or even deep interest, but studies of excess deaths since the COVID outbreak seem to consistently indicate COVID deaths are undercounted.

    @Tony W: Looking occasionally at conservative media and comments at conservative sites, the million dead have gone completely down the memory hole.

    2
  14. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    @MarkedMan:

    I have to wonder what the false positive rate is for current COVID tests? I’m not curious enough to go down the rabbit hole, but I do wonder.

    Lower than the false negative rate.

    Between Omicron taking a while to show up on tests, collection errors (not reaching in far enough with the q tip) and reading errors (that little line can be faint), you would need a massive number of false positives to overcome that and make the number of real infections lower than the number of recorded infections, even in places where you are testing everyone (hospital admissions, for instance).

    Even if you assume hospital workers are perfect and make no human error (it’s reasonable to say they will have less human error on administering and reading tests), you still have that delay before Omicron shows up on tests, which is huge.

    2
  15. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    @Sleeping Dog:

    My wife’s BF and her husband are currently enjoying an ocean view in Honolulu,

    Is BF short for boyfriend or best friend?

    I’m not judging. You folks should do whatever works for you. In fact, I’ll probably forget in five minutes. I just know that someone keeps a spreadsheet and might need to update it.

    2
  16. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    @gVOR08:

    I claim no expertise, or even deep interest, but studies of excess deaths since the COVID outbreak seem to consistently indicate COVID deaths are undercounted.

    That is my understanding as well, and it makes sense. Covid damages organs and that damage persists after the active infection. And brain fog.

    1
  17. Sleeping Dog Avatar
    Sleeping Dog

    @Gustopher:

    best friend. Unless something is going on that I don’t want to know about. 🙂

  18. Slugger Avatar
    Slugger

    @MarkedMan: No diagnostic test is failure proof. There may be false positives, where the test says you have Covid but you don’t. There may also be false negatives where you actually have the disease but the test fails to detect it. I have heard people say that there are deaths attributed to Covid that should not be. Surely, there are also deaths due to Covid that did not get recognized. The USA experienced excess mortality over and above the cases attributed to the Covid virus; some of these excess deaths may have been underdiagnosed Covid.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2798990
    https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
    etc.

  19. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    @Slugger: Excess deaths is definitely the best way to judge during a pandemic, because it eliminates all the differences in counting something as a COVID test. Your link shows that excess deaths in the US is still significant, averaging about 6-8 points above normal for the past year. That is roughly equivalent to the trough from March through July of 2021, but substantially lower than at any other time. However, that 6-8 points represent about 400 – 560 extra deaths per day. Pretty darn significant.

    1
  20. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @CSK:
    @Sleeping Dog:

    Contagion is a statistical matter with a great many factors. The two most important ones is how much of the pathogen is circulating, and how protected are you against it. That’s why a large gathering of unmasked people often leads to more people getting sick than one where everyone is masked.

    Maybe you attend one large gathering of unmasked people and you don’t get COVID, even if you were exposed. This may lead you to feel fears are overblown and precautions unwarranted. So you keep attending crowded, unmasked places, and eventually you’ll catch it.

    I call this the Judah Asimov Gambling Principle: a small win at a high risk game or endeavor increases one’s risk tolerance to the point it guarantees major losses in subsequent iterations.

  21. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    On my flight from CLT to LAX two weeks ago, I and two Asian families were the only ones masked on the flight. I will never fly again, without wearing an N95 mask suctioned to my face. On the shorter flights (less than three hours), I’ll pass on the food and drink to avoid taking off the mask at all. On longer trips, I very quickly lower the mask to eat and drink, but do so as little as possible.

    I’m heading to Scotland next week, so that will be an adventurous flight. I will be masked.

    2
  22. gVOR08 Avatar
    gVOR08

    @MarkedMan: I’ve seen credible claims (it would take forever to find a link) that the biggest discrepancy between COVID deaths and excess deaths is simply underreporting. Many areas have part-time coroners who generally will simply record as cause of death whatever the doctor or family say. Many red counties are so far down the rabbit hole there’s a stigma attached to having COVID. So it’s “He died of, umm, er, … pneumonia, that’s the ticket. Pneumonia.” Which is on top of red counties having higher reported COVID deaths.

  23. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @gVOR08:

    Between such things, low testing levels in some areas/countries, and rapid tests sold privately, one begins to understand why estimates of cases and deaths in past pandemics vary so widely.

  24. Tony W Avatar
    Tony W

    @gVOR08: Reporting excess deaths, as the CDC does, gets around that neatly – which is what I believe @MarkedMan was referring to.

    When we see the normal numbers of deaths that are expected, by week, and then a pandemic comes around and those number spike, in concert with active case numbers, then it becomes difficult to say “those weren’t COVID deaths” because the skeptic would have to explain what else was different that might have caused the extra deaths.

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