Monday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Monday, October 28, 2024
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103 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Who could have known that Trump would be the one bringing his own October Surprise?
@MarkedMan: I think Eddie nailed it last night. This could be the biggest self-own in politics.
There is a week-plus left, and Trump has a way of weaseling out of things, but maybe–maybe–some voters will realize this is exactly what the modern Republican party thinks of them.
@MarkedMan:
Some kind of glitch trying to get to start of Atrupa thread covering rally; found my way to the middle:
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1850656623133348175
This is close to the start of a very long thread covering Trump MSG Nuremberg rally:
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1850606887517196752
@charontwo: @charontwo:
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1850613597304455412
@charontwo: @charontwo:
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1850613597304455412
It’s quite amusing how the Trump campaign thinks it can wave away the most despicable insults by claiming they were jokes gone bad. Sure p*ss off a group of Americans who reside in states from one ocean to the next and who have a pretty strong record of voting GOP and see how that works for you.
Also: ““As a Puerto Rican, I am tempted to call [Comedian Tony] Hinchcliffe racist garbage but doing so would be an insult to garbage,” Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) posted on the social platform X.”
Source: https://www.valleycentral.com/news/national-news/comedian-at-trump-rally-mocks-puerto-rico-gets-mixed-reaction-from-crowd/
@MarkedMan: “Who could have known that Trump would be the one bringing his own October Surprise?”
I hope one of our regular scolds will once again start lecturing us on how terrible it is that Democrats say mean things about Trump voters, because that just forces them to support Trump harder.
And they’ll have nothing to say positive about Trump. Instead, more scolding, whataboutism, nihilism, non sequiturs…They’re not the deplorables, they’re the ignorables.
And I’m thinking Hinchcliffe is about to be eclipsed by this jerk: Trump rally speaker on Americans who don’t support Trump: “We need to slaughter these people”
Wow, Trump upstaged at his own final rally? Who saw that coming?
Source: https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/DBo_A_psIoQ
https://x.com/AOC/status/1850760969120538807
https://x.com/TonyHinchcliffe/status/1850641658599399587
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1850636070137762225
Predictably, the Trump campaign is trying to disavow this sh1t.
The speaker’s comments were vetted and loaded into the teleprompter.
The entire evening was full of the standard racist nonsense we’ve come to expect.
Don’t let them get away with this.
@Not the IT Dept.:
Not just 450K Puerto Ricans in PA, FL has 1.2 M.
@Jen:
Maybe TFG getting a bit cocky from recent polling, or maybe just losing his filters from progressing senility – and surrounded by yes-men motivated to please him.
Maybe this will get through. Maybe. But I feel as if I’ve been sitting in the back of math class hearing the teacher say over and over again, that 2+2=4 and 50% of the students not only don’t get it, but deny it outright. For weeks and months and nine years.
Will at least some of that 50% finally get it? Because that’s all we need. We need a bare few of Trumpies to finally click and realize that 2+2 does indeed equal 4. And we don’t need them to vote for Kamala, we just need them not to vote at all.
Eight days.
I noticed a tell a while ago. People often say “Things have gotten too politically correct”, and in theory I can agree with them. But if you ask me what things have gone too far, I’ll be happy to tell you. But if you ask a lot of MAGA’s the same question, they just start muttering. And that’s the tell. They want to be able to make jokes about PR’s being garbage, Blacks shucking and jiving, Jews being money grubbers, etc.
https://x.com/ClaraJeffery/status/1850657989201711109
Gift link to Times:
“Gift”
Much more at the link of course.
I read the Wikipedia article on Tony Hinchcliffe, and one thing that’s clear is that yesterday was absolutely on-brand for him. He has a long history of extreme racist “jokes,” and it’s gotten him dropped in the past by even Joe Rogan of all people.
In terms of its electoral impact, I was a little reminded of the “rum, romanism, and rebellion” incident that some historians believe cost James Blaine the 1884 election, but those of us in the Trump era know better than to get our hopes up.
Given the teflon that TFG seems to have, there are only thing significant from the fallout so far is that it is being covered extensively by the mainstream press and that coverage has dispensed with the typical sanewashing that TFG receives. As far as how this will change the vote. I expect that only the Puerto Rican community and sections of the larger Latino community will take notice. But in a close election, even the shift of a few thousand votes in a battleground state could swing the election.
But the larger electorate that isn’t already repulsed by TFG, they won’t care.
@MarkedMan:..They want to be able to make jokes about PR’s being garbage, Blacks shucking and jiving, Jews being money grubbers, etc.
It was demonstrated last night by Trump supporter Tony Hinchcliffe that the honkies can say whatever they want about the citizens they despise.
I’m white. I’ve been hearing them voice their racist bilge for 76 years.
What the cowardly bigots want is to be able express their true thoughts without facing backlash from decent Americans.
@charontwo: I love how little self-awareness Hinchcliffe has when he says “I made fun of everyone…watch the whole set”. No, Tony, you didn’t — you only punch down. You only make fun of Those People. Because, y’know, making fun of fat rich white racists wouldn’t be funny, amirite?
It’s not a matter of Trump voters changing their minds – assuming they even have minds anymore. It’s a matter of giving a bit of a boost to those people who were thinking of not voting, or who are willing to accept Harris but not make an effort to get to the polling station. Those are the unpredictable people who might react to a situation like this. The GOP can claim all they want that we shouldn’t take Trump seriously because that’s just who he is, how he talks, but they can’t excuse Hinchcliffe that way or the nameless speaker who wants to slaughter Americans for not voting the right way. It’s too close to November 5 to recover from these kind of stupidities.
I think it would be hilarious if Trump is badly hurt by a “comedian” he has probably never heard of before yesterday.
Word has it there were no drag queens involved.
I thought Trump’s candidacy was over back in 2016 when the pussy-grabbing clip aired…
@Kylopod:
Too offensive to be on Joe Rogan’s show is an accomplishment, though, say what you will.
I am so ready for this election to be over. For better or for worse. I have this feeling of impending doom, even if Kamala wins and Dems take the House and Senate. There’s no way Trump will concede gracefully. And if he wins….this last week could very well be our “before” times. Before everything went to hell and he actually tried mass deportations and locking up his political enemies, before he crashed the economy, before evil won.
@CSK:
It very well could have been, except Wikileaks started releasing stolen emails (emails Russia’s hackers had supplied them) that same day to distract from Trump’s remarks, and it worked.
@Not the IT Dept.: While I’m thrilled to have the endorsements of Bad Bunny, Mark Anthony, etc., – fuck them. They only stepped forward when they were directly affected, not when others were being threatened or persecuted. That’s bullshit, and racial minorities in this country should know better.
I’m a white guy with significant assets. I will never be their target, and I’m probably better off financially with a Republican in office – yet I’m out there every day fighting for people who don’t have what I have.
We need people to be moral even when it doesn’t affect them personally. Even selfish people should understand that if the entire community isn’t doing well, then we are all at risk – it’s in nobody’s interest to have folks running around with nothing to lose.
I can’t seem to cancel WAPO until my current subscription term runs out. Right now on the homepage the second and third stories are about Trump’s rally last night. The top story is about billionaire businessmen kowtowing to Trump out of fear of retribution. Bezos is mentioned by name. It makes it pretty clear Bezos made the decision not to endorse and purely out of fear for his business interests.
Hat tip to Mort Kondracke with the hope that America still has that kind of greatness.
https://x.com/Esqueer_/status/1850693791201522107
@Jax:
I’ve a tiny bit of hope that Biden might be preparing a coup if things go wrong.
Mind Over Machine!
Finally got the Gravatar Avatar changed.
Only took 45 minutes to figure it out.
Harris/Walz
2024
@Tony W: “While I’m thrilled to have the endorsements of Bad Bunny, Mark Anthony, etc., – fuck them. They only stepped forward when they were directly affected…”
You didn’t get their endorsements, Harris did. And I’m pretty sure she’s good with them. So your feelings kind of don’t matter on this. Also, they’re celebrities: most of them probably don’t get involved overtly in politics because damned if they do, damned if they don’t. And the last minute jolt of their endorsements is an important plus, whereas if they simply repeated what they’d done before, it wouldn’t have much impact at all. It’s the rush that comes from new names that’s important.
And I’m working hard for my Democratic Senate candidate – I’m phone-banking this afternoon, and on the weekend I filled out the schedule for driving voters to the polls and delivering lunches for volunteers. And I welcome Bad Bunny, Ricky Martin and all the rest with great enthusiasm. God bless them all!
AOC as quoted on Morning Joe:
https://x.com/Morning_Joe/status/1850860799289336225
@charontwo: My fantasy today is that on Nov 6th Biden: 1) yanks Musk’s security clearance and 2) starts denaturalization procedures.
He won’t but a guy can dream…
I love it when Popovich gets his dander up: Spurs’ Gregg Popovich rails against Trump in lengthy rant: ‘Danger follows the delusion’
What is even more amusing is the predictable reaction that sports figures (of all people) shouldn’t have a public opinion and should shut up. I mean, then, who should, business people, lawyers, doctors, bus drivers, teachers, construction workers? After all, it was a reality TV star who constantly spouted off in public and he became President.
@Tony W:
Nah, the economy does better under Dems and it has for decades. It would seem that there is multiple political-economics Ph.D thesis that could explain this.
On lighter topics, I’ve nailed au gratin potatoes at long last.
IMO, it’s best to parboil them first, let them dry and cool, and then just pop them in the oven with the sauce. Said sauce goes like this:
1/2 stick of butter
3 tbsp. flour
2 cups milk
garlic powder (didn’t measure it)
black pepper (didn’t measure it)
1/2 tsp salt*
1 1/2 cup grated cheese**
Melt the butter, do a roux with the flour, add milk a little at a time while whisking to minimize clumps, let it thicken while whisking (it won’t thicken much), then add the cheese and whisk until it melts.
Arrange layers of potatoes and sauce in a baking dish. I also added a layer of caramelized onions. then pop in the oven at 181 C for 15-30 minutes to finish cooking the potatoes.
*Actually “light” salt. this is a mix of sodium chloride (actual salt) and potassium chloride (technically also a salt).
** I had some Parmesan style cheese left over. I grated that, and topped it off with cheddar (very likely not real cheddar).
@Michael Reynolds:
Was going to text this to you, but figured I’d invite more thoughts and comments.
Fallout spreads from racist rhetoric at Trump’s MSG rally
MAGA speakers unleash ugly rhetoric at Trump’s MSG rally
Trump rally speakers lob racist insults, call Puerto Rico ‘island of garbage’
Trump at the Garden: A Closing Carnival of Grievances, Misogyny and Racism
Trump faces backlash from Bad Bunny, Puerto Ricans amid fight for Latino vote
This was so public, as all four big cable news networks covered it live, that there is no way of sane-washing it.
@charontwo: Honestly the pattern of escalation we’ve been seeing for the past couple of weeks matches the behavior of people who think they are losing and need to intensify their message.
And I hold to this impression that I formed watching clips of Trump’s “danceathon” at a town hall – which was that he just doesn’t really want to do the political stuff any more, although he loves being in front of crowd.
I realize that not all the data matches this, but the polls that we mortals have access to are not all that good, and have a high margin of error.
@Tony W: Minor point: Marc Anthony endorsed Biden in 2020 and endorsed Harris a few weeks ago, before Dementia Donald’s Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden.
I get your overall marco point, beyond any one example. I know Ricky Martin and was surprised he hadn’t said anything already (publicly).
@Sleeping Dog: Tony W may have been thinking in terms of tax burden. He may be wealthy enough that taxes are the same type of primary concern as for the Uber wealthy.
From the USA Today article link above:
“In the face of a growing uproar, senior Trump advisor Danielle Alvarez on Sunday night issued a statement addressing Hinchcliffe’s bit. “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” she said.”
Yup, they know they’ve got a big problem with this one. I’m guessing frantic finger pointing is going on with Trump screaming in the background about who let that guy on stage blah blah blah.
It’s October, Donny. Surprise!!
LOL. Yes it most certainly does, Danielle.
They invited this “comedian”* ** and loaded his remarks into the teleprompter.
I’m guessing the most freaking out they are getting is from Republican politicians in Florida (hey, Rick Scott, how’s your morning going?) and from state party committees in swing states.
* I literally had never heard of this
clownasshat until yesterday.** I thought one had to be funny to be considered a comedian? Guess not.
@Tony W:
I take your point. I’m also a white guy and don’t expect that I will be their target. However, I don’t believe that “I’m probably better off financially with a Republican in office”, as history has shown that to not be true in general. And I would almost certainly be worse off financially with TFG in office.
@EddieInCA: I didn’t get to see the posts you made yesterday about this. I can completely understand why people are upset by it. I’m upset by it, and that’s only because I know a family that came from PR. It must be awful to hear that if you come from there, or live there now, or have people there.
@Scott: My stepdaughter used to work for Lockheed Martin. It was he first job out of college. To get the job she had to get a security clearance. When she got promoted and actually worked on some sub technology she had to get a higher security clearance. I assume if they found out she was communicating with Vladimir Putin she would have been fired and had her security clearances yanked. Why is Elon Musk any difference?
I’ve worked in politics and so watching what the campaigns are doing (rather than what they are saying) is where my focus typically is this close to the election. And while I sort of get why the Trump campaign was in NY for HateFest 2024 last night (Trump wanted to be at Madison Square Garden, so it was an ego-stroking thing), I am a bit more confused by the campaign’s announced stop in New Mexico this week. Is Trump planning a golf course and using the campaign’s money to get there?
I’m a 66-year-old white guy who doesn’t know who Bad Bunny is. But let’s go to the statistics. My Instagram followers – 14, Bad Bunny’s Instagram followers – 45 million+. I DGAF if he is late to the party, him getting there is a little more important than me being there from the start.
@Not the IT Dept.:
…to which the immediate follow-up should be “Does the non-joke about slaughtering Harris voters reflect his views? If not, does anything said at this rally actually reflect his views?”
Re financially better off with a Republican. This works for people who own capital and a stable, steady, high income of any sort. their income and capital gains taxes are lower.
There’s a psychological aspect. What do when you’re having money troubles? You reduce or cut expenses, and try to get more money (ask for a raise, find a better job, find a job, play lotto, etc.) So sympathetically it would make sense for the government to cut or reduce social programs, and try to make more money by reducing its income (yeah, the last doesn’t make sense, but 40 years of pretending trickle down works, has everyone more or less convinced it does work).
If government were a business, this might work. A business can make more money by reducing prices, ins some circumstances and with half a ton of caveats. For instance, if there’s high demand for cars and you sell them, then lowering your prices might get you a bump on sales.
Government is not a business. The demand for paying taxes is low, and no amount of reduction in tax rates will get you a bump of taxpayers.
On top of all that, Republicans make far more noise and self promotion.
@Scott:
How about just telling Xlon he has to pay back all the EV subsidies that benefited Texla for so long?
Tony Hinchcliffe:
You keep using that word …
@Kathy: By the authority of the SCOTUS, he can do that!
@Not the IT Dept.:
They think that one guy is the problem? lol
The whole Nazi rally was an orgy of anti-American hate and fascism.
@Kathy:
That was, of course, the aptly named Arthur Laffer’s laughable claim. But it’s actually worse. There really is a point beyond which raising a rate will collect less money. For the income tax there’s a point at which people don’t bother to work harder to make a smaller return and do work harder at avoidance. Laffer’s fraud was pretending this was something new. It had been conventional wisdom in econ for decades. Something Laffer certainly knew. And in fact economists had estimated the rate above which collections dropped off. It was around 75% for the top marginal income tax rate. Not coincidentally the rate to which Kennedy had already lowered it. Anything below that would, and in the event did, cut revenue.
Laffer said that reducing the income tax rate would increase revenue. What he meant was that if we pretend we don’t know what the critical rate is, we can justify cutting taxes. Deliberate fraud.
I blame Kennedy for starting us down the slippery slope that produced the modern billionaire owned Republican Party.
@DK: If they didn’t have the comedian the media would have sanewashed the whole thing. The comedian forced them to do their jobs and point out that the rally was neo-nazi-light.
@Tony W:
The one thing I know about Puerto Rican politics is that it is not mainland Democrats and Republicans, and there are a lot of complexities and local issues that would likely sway Mr. Bunny’s political engagement.
“In this country” is doing a fair bit of work here. There is a reasonably large independence movement in Puerto Rico, so I would defer to Puerto Ricans to offer their judgement on whether Mr. Bunny’s lack of endorsement until now was bad, or just “not my circus, not my monkeys” non-involvement.
Also, if Bad Bunny has never covered an Eddie Rabbitt song, the man simply has no soul.
(In general, I don’t think we should have territories, and Puerto Rico either should be a state or an independent country. I don’t care which. And I don’t care that they want to remain a territory — we should not have territories)
@Franklin:
No, he can’t. There’s a footnote, viewable only by Originalists, that says IOKIYAR.
@DK:
Not to mention that that one guy made his comments about Puerto Rico, Latinos, blacks, and Jews at the beginning of the rally, more than four hours before Trump took the stage. The campaign, the other speakers, and Trump himself had plenty of time during the rally to repudiate those comments, but they did not.
@DK: They think that one guy is the problem? lol
Trump does. That’s the problem for his campaign staff. He knows he’s not the problem – story of his life – so it must be this other guy. I’ve made a bet with my wife that Trump will personally claim he doesn’t know Hinchcliffe, never met him, didn’t approve of his appearance and if he’d only known he’d have stopped it blah blah blah.
I’m absolutely sure that surreal 40-minute dancing on stage thing was a middle finger extended to his own campaign team who’d been trying to get him to be more normal in the final laps of the race. This blow-up will only reinforce his conviction that his instincts are better than their professional knowledge. A campaign feud in the last week of the campaign is scrumptiously wonder-ific.
@DrDaveT:
Clearly they meant “slaughter Harris voters at the polls.”
And they probably meant it as a metaphor, rather than setting up guillotines at polling places. Likely less than 35% of attendees would favor killing people at polling stations. There’s all the drainage issues, for instance. Are polling stations designed for that?
@gVOR10:
Kennedy has a lot to answer for. Alas, he can’t. But mostly I blame inertia.
I had an very minor epiphany in the shower* the other day. When considering economic policies, tax rates, tariffs, subsidies, price supports, price controls, interest rates, and so on, what is the right overall policy?
There isn’t one. The right thing to do in each case depends a lot on the prevailing circumstances and economic climate. The problem is that government isn’t exactly set up to change course quickly or easily. Even interest rates which are exclusively the province of the Fed, have to wait for preset scheduling and such.
The good thing about this is there’s a degree of constance and predictability. The downside is things tend to keep moving in the direction and at the speed they were set into motion. Change tends to happen more into that direction, and even altering course is difficult (which is textbook inertia).
*I’ve come to realize I need to keep my mind occupied at all times. That’s one reason I read so much. Other things work, like watching TV or playing games. But when I engage in activities that require little or no concentration, like showering, I think about lots of stuff to keep my mind busy.
What’s curious is music. I can’t keep my mind entertained with music alone. One thing that works is watching videos of an orchestra or even a small ensemble playing music. Then I make out what the various musicians and conductor are doing. Otherwise music serves mostly as background noise for me (I put some on when I work alone at the office).
@Kathy:
Over the course of my career(s), about 80% of my best inspirations and brainstorms have come in the shower. It’s not just the lack of distractions; there is a physiological aspect involving increased dopamine release and blood flow to the brain.
Hey, where are the anti-anti trumpers today. Awfully quiet.
@Lucysfootball:
I’m a 63-year-old white guy who doesn’t know who Bad Bunny is.
@Bill Jempty: Well I’m a 64 year old white guy who (vaguely) knows who Bad Bunny is, although like Taylor, Beyonce, and Post Malone, I couldn’t identify a single one of his songs.
@DrDaveT:
I used to do a lot of brainstorming while driving, before I began carrying podcasts and then audiobooks. Especially in long drives out of town.
On other matters, I got to thinking about AF 447, which stalled while on cruise. This is one of the saddest air accidents, as the plane was in good condition and the initial mistake was easily corrected. The next to last thing heard in the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) is the first officer saying “We’re going to crash! This can’t be true. But what’s happening?” (emphasis added).
Thing is the CVR contains multiple times the plane’s automated warning system is saying “STALL! STALL!” Three pilots were in the cockpit, and none realized they were in a stall, despite the repeated warnings saying “STALL! STALL!”
Ok, the captain, who’d been on rest break when the problems started, did realize eventually they’d stalled, but by then it was too late to do anything.
This reminds me a lot of today’s electoral climate in America. The warning system is telling everyone repeatedly what’s going on, and all too many people still don’t know what to do.
Some analyses of AF447 mention the Airbus flight management system simply does not permit a stall to develop. This is absolutely true. There is or was a widespread belief, then, that no Airbus plane could ever stall. this is absolutely false. In this case the system went offline when ice covered some pitot tubes, and left the plane without some crucial data. Especially there was no airspeed data. When this happens, the system reverts to taking straight orders from the pilots. that is, it will do what the pilots instruct by moving the stick and other controls. they did not input the right moves to recover from a stall.
In any case, there’s no comparable safe management system in US politics. The separation of powers, checks and balances, and the rule of law were supposed to be such a thing. Anyone who hasn’t noted their limits or actual uselessness hasn’t been paying attention for the past nine years.
My Yakuza book is finished and sent to my editor. 4 books submitted to my publisher since the beginning of the year and a 5th in the works.
It helps I have 21 unfinished stories saved to One drive. That’s the good news. The bad news- Most of the rest aren’t anywhere near being finished. After that WW II book is done, what’s up next for me- A polygamist in Colorado, A disgraced English Civil Servant finding unexpected love in the British Virgin Islands, A cold war espionage tale, A apprentice wizard putting a spell on a store called ‘Switch Fashions’* or do I write about if there a 150 year old cow in Wisconsin?
I’m still waiting for the results of last week’s biopsy.
Last Friday I received an email from a law firm they said I received. These idiots apparently can’t read because the ticketed person and me don’t have the same last name.
Dear Wife turned bright red at mass yesterday when our pastor/her boss asked the congregation to ask DW not to quit at year’s end. Our pastor is hopeless without her but DW has arthriitis, wants to do some traveling with me, and just relax. She isn’t changing her mind.
I’m currently reading Karla’s Choice by Nick Harkaway, the son of John Le carre. Nick doesn’t have his father’s way with words but it isn’t a bad book.
Anyone want to hear about my 1962 Strat-O-Matic baseball replay? I didn’t think so…….
*- There was a store with that name in the Boynton Beach mall. It closed in the late 10s.
@Sleeping Dog:
Well, the one that has a very disturbing fixation on women seemed to be having some kind of crisis yesterday, so he may be out of commision for a while. From what some of the commentariat has said here, at least one of the other ones is just a straight up racist on other sites and, let’s be realistic, all the trumpers are probably straight up racists too. They have a real quandary. Trump’s minions have made it clear the talking points are “We never met this comedian and had no idea he was going to be a racist, WHICH WE ARE NOT! And, BTW, the rest of the racist and misogynistic speakers never happened!” But the trumpers on this site really liked that racism and don’t want to disavow it, so it’s a real quandary for them.
@Kathy: Kathy,
You know what is interesting. There hasn’t been a fatal major* commercial aviation crash in the US in over 10 years aka the plane that crashed in Kentucky when it took off from the wrong runway.
Go back and look at the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, and even the 90’s, there would be several accidents a year. Has aviation safety improved that much or has this country just been lucky?
*- There was that Asiana crash but the death toll was 3. When I say major, I’m talking about dozens of people being killed.
@Bill Jempty:
Pardon the interruption, but I’m a 73 year old white guy who knows who Bad Bunny is.
@al Ameda: Yeah, I’m a 70 year old white guy who knows who Bad Bunny is. On the other hand, I have kids in their 20s and lived in San Antonio where Bad Bunny sold out the Alamodome with 50,000 attendees.
@Eusebio: In terms of “better off,” I, personally, am about the same either way. The charities that are listed as dependents on my investment accounts will be better off with a Democratic administration, but that’s out of my hands.
@Lucysfootball: Elon Musk’s situation may be different because the uber wealthy play a different role in making the rules under which security clearances are enforced than your stepdaughter did.
But that’s only a guess.
Bwahahahaha! Perfect!
@just nutha: @Tony W: “I’m a white guy with significant assets. I will never be their target, and I’m probably better off financially with a Republican in office – yet I’m out there every day fighting for people who don’t have what I have.”
Unless you are rich, I doubt that. You *might* get an up front tax cut, but you would then have to deal with the back end tax craziness. After that, you would be hit by the insanity of a dictatorship.
@EddieInCA:
I think part of it that it was in NYC – media capital of the world.
Here’s another. (Link not working.)
Pennsylvania
2020 winning margin: 80,555
Puerto Rican population: 472,213
Nevada
2020 winning margin: 33,596
Puerto Rican population: 27,230
Arizona
2020 winning margin: 10,457
Puerto Rican population: 64,738
Michigan
2020 winning margin: 154,188
Puerto Rican population: 43,381
Wisconsin
2020 winning margin: 20,608
Puerto Rican population: 61,437
Georgia
2020 winning margin: 11,779
Puerto Rican population: 100,923
North Carolina
2020 winning margin: 74,483
Puerto Rican population: 115,449
@Bill Jempty:
There were the many near misses a while back, plus more recently. To some extent, keeping them as near misses was lucky.
There have been overall few fatal airplane accidents everywhere. This is not luck, but decades of implementing safety improvements borne out of every accident and incident that gets investigated and reported. I’ve posted a lot about it here over the years. Now and then I drag out the air accident investigations model when I think it applies to some other area or recent development.
One trend I think I’ve noticed is human error as the bigger cause to many recent accidents, like the fire truck that was run over by a landing Latam jet, or the coast guard plane that intruded on the runway where a JAL A350 landed on.
For that matter AF447 was almost entirely pilot error, by three pilots. If you read the report, there will be contributing factors. Some relieve the pilots’ responsibility, like lack of practice in manual flying.
One thing I’ve wondered from time to time is why the warning systems don’t instruct the crew what to do. You get the warning like “Terrain!” or “Stall!” but not how to deal with it. Of course, the pilots are assumed to know what to do*. And the terrain warning is usually followed by “pull up!”
I think in part it’s because what to do often depends on the specific situation. For instance, on a high altitude stall, like AF447, the remedy is to lower the nose and accelerate. But this costs altitude. It’s fine at 30,000 ft or so, but a low altitude stall requires something else. I’m not certain how it’s done, but the nose is held level and speed is increased to max thrust. Maybe the flaps and/or slats should be deployed as well, if they haven’t been already.
So if you stall at 2,000 ft and the system tells you to pitch the nose down, you may die more quickly.
*And in non-emergency situations, they look for a checklist to work out in the manuals.
@Michael Reynolds: Great data. I want Harris to win bigly, but if she wins closely I hope it is because of the Puerto Rican vote. I can’t imagine that yesterday’s “rally” will help with any Hispanic groups (maybe Cubans, but that’s FL which is definitely not a swing state).
I am 76 and I know who José Feliciano is.
@Michael Reynolds:
@Lucysfootball:
But it’s not just Puerto Ricans. That’s what I was trying to get to yesterday. It is Cubans, Dominicans, Hatians, Mexicans, Venezuelans, Salvadoreans, Panamanians, Ecuadorans, Chilenos, etc. Today, we are all Puerto Ricans. That’s how the greater Latino community nationwide is looking at this event. I”m telling you, it’s going to make a difference.
As an aside, yet another anecdote. Spoke to a Muslim friend in MIchigan who tells me that in the Muslim community in Michigan, it’s Rudy Guliani’s speech yesterday has many rethinking their non-support of Harris. They were never going to vote for Trump, but they were ambivalent about Harris. Today, many are pushing those recalcitrant Muslims off the fence and off the couch. Harris/Walz has ALOT of money, and is using it on the ground.
Lastly, watch the polls this week move towards Harris even more. Mark McKinnon, Stuart Stevens, Matthew Dowd, Simon Rosenberg, and other data gurus from previous campaigns, have been saying for weeks that the internal polls show Harris in a comfortable position, and the public polling has been tweaked to make it look like a more close race than is. Interestingly enough, Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” today moved to a Harris lead after a few weeks of Trump leading. Stuart Stevens and Matthew Dowd both predicted it, a few hours before Silver released his latest status report.
@BillJempty,
@al Ameda,
@Scott
I’m 63, Latino,and not only did I know who Bad Bunny was, but have gone to two of his concerts, including his record smashing concert at Crypto.com arena.
@Michael Reynolds: To add to your list, Florida may not be a swing state, but a million Puerto Ricans live in Florida and Trump’s winning margin was about 370,000.
Not predicting anything, as I’m not sure how many of that million are voters, but given the weirdness of American politics lately, you never know.
If this happens our next vacation is in Puerto Rico.
@Kathy: Once the aircraft is in the stalled condition, unless you’re in a modern fighter where with the new engines, thrust exceeds weight, you simply don’t have sufficient thrust to fly out of the stall. When the aircraft is stalled the only solution, regardless of height is to lower the nose to regain control. You may still crash but it will be with wings level and some measure of control.
Reuters is reporting that more than 200,000 subscribers have cancelled their subscriptions to the Washington Post following the paper’s refusal to endorse Harris. The paper had an online subscription total of approximately 2.5 million subscribers.
@a country lawyer:
I’ll have to check my sources over. Many, including experienced commercial pilots, on discussing high altitude stalls, specifically say the maneuver to recover is the high altitude stall recovery, not just the stall recovery.
On other things, I’m getting my annual flu and COVID shots this Saturday morning. I wanted to get Moderna for the trump virus this time, but apparently the drugstore doesn’t offer it this time. I suppose there’s little or no difference, it was just to diversify my vaccination records.
At that, I’ve no idea who makes the flu vaccine. I just amke sure to get the tetravalent one.
@Kathy: We (wife, son, and I) got our updated COVID and flu shots a few weeks ago. No problems at all, easy peasy.
I got my second shingles shot last week. I expected it to be rough, but it was actually not nearly as bad as the first one. Hardly any discomfort at all, while the first one hurt for a few days and made me feel very run-down.
@CSK:
Jim Comey had a different idea. Fortunately, though, he’s not around this year.
@EddieInCA:
Nate Silver is such a predictable hack.
@Sleeping Dog:
Too busy deciding how to seppuku after America’s Hitler loses next week?
@Jen:
@Mikey:
Counting Florida now strikes me as hubris, and we all know how dimly viewed this is.
Hoping and praying is another matter. I wonder which deity would be appropriate here. I’m thinking Eris, Ate, and Nemesis. Or Discord, Folly, and Retribution.
I love the smell of MAGA troll panic in the afternoon:
“Tony is a flaming liberal and has never actually supported Trump. Use your brain, 8 days before an election, in a city with 1 million Puerto Ricans, with Kamala lagging, this fits right into the Kamala Harris & AOC playbook, and this comic is a liberal who would never support Trump. This was a racist plant from the Democrats.”
Ruh roh. Haha.
@DK:
Yeah, and he was scheduled for the big Nuremberg Rally and the audience laughed at his “joke”.
The next conspiracy theory that doesn’t fall apart after three seconds of critical thought will be the first.
@DK: Seems half-hearted, almost like he felt that he was obliged to say it but doesn’t even believe it himself.
Topic change. I remember the 1977 World Series and the crowd chanting, “Reggie, Reggie, Reggie!” I can’t remember what time that game ended, but I was definitely fuzzy that work the next morning. I was a bit more liberal with my alcohol intake in those days, and my coworkers probably thought that I was in the bag.
Oh, OMG, Freddy just crushed one!
You gotta love this game!
Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania
@Kathy: Oh, no, I’m not counting anything…but hoping and praying are definitely on the table…LOL
If Trump loses because of a stupid racist “joke” at his big Nazi rally, it will be the most glorious poetic justice in American political history.
@DK:
Absolutely not. Seppuku requires honor.
@DK: I’m having trouble figuring out how this argument even works. I mean how am I supposed to support a candidate whose campaign staff is so stupid that they booked a flaming liberal planted by the opposition to tank their big NYC campaign event in the opening hour? Can Paul L, Jack, alan storm, or somebody explain WTF is going on with the campaign that they are sooooooooo bad at booking? How am I supposed to believe that Trump is even as competent as Biden after this?
@Just nutha ignint cracker: Hahahaha….only @Alanstorm showed up today, as far as I’ve seen.
Which….says something.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Oh, but it was a brilliant plan—book a speaker who relies on racist schtick, give him the hook when he crosses the line, and let the candidate condemn the remarks and proclaim “that’s not who we are.” It requires recognizing when he crossed the line.