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Outside the Beltway

Source: The White House

Orbán Concedes

Some good news for democracy, for a change.

Steven L. Taylor
13

Comments

Source: The White House

Via Politico: Orbán’s 16-year rule over Hungary ends in crushing election defeat.

With more than 53 percent of the vote counted, his opponent Péter Magyar looked set to win 136 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Orbán’s Fidesz party was on track to win only 56.

This is a stunning outcome and a reminder that even in a stacked system, you can push voters only so far. I can’t help but take some hope that this is a foreshadowing for November.

Although I can’t hope for an outcome here this good.

If that margin of victory holds, Magyar will secure a supermajority that will allow him to unravel key features of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” — demolishing the prime minister’s tight control over the judiciary, state companies and the media.

This is a defeat for illiberal populist nationalism. It is also a defeat for Trump, Vance, and Putin.

A heavy loss for the Hungarian premier will also deliver a painful blow to Trump’s MAGA movement, which has viewed Hungary’s prime minister as a talismanic trailblazer for its own brand of anti-immigrant, Christian-oriented nationalism.  

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13 responses to “Orbán Concedes”

  1. Gavin Avatar
    Gavin

    Here’s a bet that Vance’s visit enraged even more people to vote against Orban than before.
    Please continue making yourself a living joke, JD. Looking forward to that peace treaty! Wait, what?

    20
  2. drj Avatar
    drj

    If that margin of victory holds, Magyar will secure a supermajority

    Always fun when gerrymandering backfires. Especially when it backfires this spectacularly.

    14
  3. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    This is very good news. MAGA Europe is not looking at all like the wave of the future. Also, bad news for Putin. But much more important: I’ve been avoiding Hungary – there are plenty of non-fascist destinations – and now I can go to Budapest. Yay!

    5
  4. Jay L. Gischer Avatar
    Jay L. Gischer

    I have questions: Given what we know about how hard it is to change someone’s political affiliation, how did this happen? I’m not a doubter, it seems quite reasonable that people vote based on their identity, which does not readily change.

    And then you get things like this. So there’s more to the story. There must be.

    2
  5. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    I was expecting a Taco style refusal to admit a loss and claim the party not in power to have rigged the elections.

    Anyway, Mr. Orban is about to undergo a metamorphosis. He’ll go from whatever favorable opinion filled with childish superlatives El Taco held yesterday, to a low IQ loser his own family doesn’t like and he’s never even heard about.

    5
  6. CSK Avatar
    CSK

    @Kathy:

    Well, I suppose it’s possible Orban might have brought him covfefe once.

    1
  7. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    I can’t help but take some hope that this is a foreshadowing for November.

    Indeed, if Hungary can do this after 16 years of Orban, Americans can certainly do likewise after less than two years of Trump.

    Is (was?) there a cult of personality around Orban like we have around Trump?

    2
  8. drj Avatar
    drj

    @Jay L. Gischer:

    Given what we know about how hard it is to change someone’s political affiliation, how did this happen?

    * In multi-party systems, partisan identity tends to be significantly weaker than in a two-party system.
    * Hungary is gerrymandered to hell. The shift in vote shares is a lot smaller than the very large shift in legislative seats would seem to indicate.
    * Like Fidesz, Tisza is a conservative right-wing party. The main difference is that Tisza promised to be like Fidesz but without the corruption – which thus included being anti-Russian and therefore pro-EU. (Russia, after all, for reasons both ideological and pragmatic is quite eager to export its kleptocracy abroad.)
    * Orbán had already been in power for 16 years. Which never helps.
    * Because Orbán had made such a nuisance of himself in Brussels, this time there was less EU money available to prop up Hungary’s corrupt and therefore inefficient economy. Voters noticed.
    * In the absence of viable alternatives (mainly due to the complicated gerrymander that makes liberal/left-wing parties non-viable almost by definition), Tisza managed to unite the entire anti-Orbán opposition apart from the extreme right.

    All in all, it took quite a bit to convince a sufficient number of Hungarians to switch their votes from one right-wing party to another.

    10
  9. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Jay L. Gischer: It helps, to cleave to an argument that I often make, if it is easier to form a new party and then seek to capture a new political space. Tisza has only existed since 2020, and Magyar used to be in Orban’s Fidesz.

    Other dynamics are at work as well.

    But to answer your basic question: really bad governance doesn’t help.

    But yes, alway more to the story.

    3
  10. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @drj: A good list.

    2
  11. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    @Gavin:

    Rod Dreher, who lives in Budapest, had a post a few days ago where polling showed that the Vance visit caused Orban to lose at least three points in two different polls. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more than that. The new Magyar administration won in such a landslide that they will be able to reverse many of Orban’s worst changes to the Hungarian Constitution. That’s a huge win for democracy.

    5
  12. Ken_L Avatar
    Ken_L

    My usual sceptical self will wait to see whether Magyar will move to improve democratic governance in Hungary, or merely seek to use Orban’s tactics to secure autocratic rule for himself. However his likely positions with regard to Ukraine and the EU would be unqualified good news for Europe (and a serious blow to MAGA Republicans and Russia).

    9
  13. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Ken_L: A critical eye as to how Magyar governs is warranted, to be sure.

    I would simply state that, as important as that ultimately will be, at the moment, that’s not the issue in terms of the immediate importance of the electoral outcome.

    Orban losing, in and of itself, is huge–especially to someone who is at least saying more liberal/less illiberal things.

    The fact that there was enough popular power to oust Orban is a victory for democracy and a defeat for Putin, MAGA, and the illiberal nationalist populist movement.

    I think it is okay to note that, and then hope that Magyar will engage in liberalizationin Hungary.

    6

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