10 responses to “Quick Look at a House Seat Projection”

1. 

   gVOR08

   August 30, 2022 at 10:48 am

   I’ve seen estimates that Ds need an advantage of 6 to 8% in the generic house preference polls to break even on seats. I’ve also, and more recently, seen an estimate as low as 2%. I’ve also seen at least one article saying gerrymandering is an issue, but actually less so than in 2012. It cited non-partisan redistricting mandates and court decisions reducing the number of gross gerrymanders and increasing, from a few to a few more, the number of competitive seats. The article was vague on whether the improvement was symmetric. Seems to me blue states are more likely to have initiatives for fair redistricting and judges willing to rule against partisan gerrymanders.

   The net effect – I’m so confused.

   But I suspect 538 is pretty close. The House looks only less bad, but last I looked they showed about 2:1 odds Ds would gain a Senate majority.

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2. 

   Raoul

   August 30, 2022 at 11:00 am

   The abortion issue is easily moving Dem. performance at least six points probably more in swing districts (see NY-19)- so the net effect is like having 6% in the generic ballot. Considering that Biden won in a majority of the districts, one has to give team D a real chance. A true analysis requires an in-depth look at the middle 50 districts. I do not know about other states but here in VA, the Dems should carry (and hold) the 2 swing districts including Abigail’s.

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3. 

   Jen

   August 30, 2022 at 11:06 am

   It’s still a long time between now and November.

   The number of Republicans attempting to scrub their abortion stances from their websites must mean that internal polling is showing something, but I’ve been through too many election cycles to get ruffled about anything this early. Most voters aren’t paying attention right now, certainly not in any real sense.

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4. 

   Kylopod

   August 30, 2022 at 11:27 am

   Honestly, I don’t think it would be such a bad deal if the Repubs win a narrow majority in the House while Dems retain the Senate. Sure, it would make Biden into a legislative lame duck, and the next two years would be a whirlwind of investigations into Hunter’s laptop, Fauci’s ouchy and more. But Biden could continue appointing judges (one of the more underappreciated successes of the Biden Admin), and we’d be in safe territory if anyone on the SCOTUS decides to croak.

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5. 

   Kathy

   August 30, 2022 at 11:32 am

   @Kylopod:

   Two rather big problems:

   1) The R House would impeach Biden on the thinnest pretext, or not even bother with one.

   2) The GQP as a whole would blame Biden for everything that goes wrong, especially when timely passed legislation might have helped and the R House decided not to even consider it.

   This aside the fact that passing a budget and raising the debt limit might lead to government shutdowns. People really hate those.

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6. 

   Kylopod

   August 30, 2022 at 11:45 am

   @Kathy:

   The R House would impeach Biden on the thinnest pretext, or not even bother with one.

   Absolutely. I made the prediction a while back that if Rs win the House in 2022, they will impeach Biden at least three times just so they can call him “the first president in history to be impeached more than twice.”

   The GQP as a whole would blame Biden for everything that goes wrong, especially when timely passed legislation might have helped and the R House decided not to even consider it.

   I suspect they’ll have a harder time convincing the public if they’re in charge of the House. Despite how ignorant the public can be (including often not even knowing which party controls Congress), I think parties that have the trifecta get blamed more easily than those under divided government. I believe it’s one of the reasons for the common historical pattern of a president becoming unpopular toward the midterms, seeing his party get thrashed, and then rebounding in time for reelection.

   This aside the fact that passing a budget and raising the debt limit might lead to government shutdowns. People really hate those.

   And always end up blaming the Republicans, no matter which party controls the WH. We’ve seen this again and again.

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7. 

   JohnSF

   August 30, 2022 at 2:50 pm

   But are the seats comfy ones, nicely upholstered?
   Are they reclinable?
   And when you win a seat, is it delivered to your home, or do you have to arrange collection yourself?
   🙂

   Bad jokes aside, with the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, passing the infrastructure/carbon etc composite bill thing, the Jan 6 hearings evidence, the Mar a Lago subpoena etc, it seems to this external observer that Democrats should have a fair at retaining the House.

   And if you want to motivate the more slothful voter, how about the near certainty that if Trump runs in 2024, Republicans will move heaven and earth to have some pretext for the House to declare a “Contingent Election”.
   No matter how spurious the grounds, or in defiance of precedents and even explicit rules.
   And that may well include attempting such a move even if the Senate accepted the results.

   Maybe someone can assure me that I’m just a worry wart Brit without a clue?
   “You know nothing, John SF”

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8. 

   gVOR08

   August 30, 2022 at 3:48 pm

   @JohnSF:

   it seems to this external observer that Democrats should have a fair at retaining the House.

   One would think so, wouldn’t one. But alas.

   I’d like to assure you it’s just that you’re a worry wort Brit who doesn’t understand the nuances of our very stable system. I’d really, really like to reassure you on that. It would make my whole week to be able to reassure you. But I can’t. You understand all too well.

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9. 

   Kylopod

   August 30, 2022 at 3:59 pm

   @JohnSF:

   Bad jokes aside, with the Supreme Court Dobbs decision, passing the infrastructure/carbon etc composite bill thing, the Jan 6 hearings evidence, the Mar a Lago subpoena etc, it seems to this external observer that Democrats should have a fair at retaining the House.

   To be perfectly fair, let’s just list all the factors that may be at play in the Dems’ shifting political fortunes this year:

   * Dobbs
   * Bad GOP candidate choices
   * Trumps’ legal troubles
   * Decline in inflation and a bettering economic outlook
   * The successful passage of the big Biden bill after being declared dead
   * Improvements in Biden’s approval ratings

   Of course, these are all interconnected to some degree.

   If the GOP wins only a narrow House majority and fails to capture the Senate, or if the miracle happens and Dems retain both houses of Congress, it’ll be somewhat of a Rorschach test as to why. It could be any of the above reasons, or all of them in combination, and people will disagree which ones are the most important.

   My personal belief is that Dobbs is the biggie. You can see it in the four special elections since Dobbs dropped, as contrasted with the three from earlier in the year (where they actually flipped one seat to the GOP that had been narrowly won by Biden in 2020). Something real is brewing.

   I also think candidate choice is a major factor in the Senate prognosis shifting in the Dems’ favor.

   And I think the economic news and the Biden legislation, both of which contribute to his improving popularity, are going to help a lot. Previous midterms in which the president’s party gained House seats (1998, 2002) or lost only very few (1986, 1990) happened while the president’s approval rating was in the 60s. I doubt that’s going to happen with Biden this year, but at least his approval isn’t abysmal as it was earlier in the year.

   I tend to be a little more skeptical that the Trump stuff is directly helping the Dems, since I’m not sure how many people other than hardcore political nerds are paying attention to it.
10. 

    Kathy

    August 30, 2022 at 4:54 pm

    @JohnSF:

    Given the 2016 election, the loss of Democratic seats in the House in 2020, the paltry precautions taken against COVID, and the large numbers of unvaccinated people, one should conclude the majority of the people are incapable of acting reasonably in the face of a clear threat.

    Tl;DR the GQP very likely takes the House.

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