Outside the Beltway

Some Polling Progress for Biden

The gap is closing in the latest NYT/Siena College Poll.

Steven L. Taylor
42

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Via the NYT: Biden Shrinks Trump’s Edge in Latest Times/Siena Poll.

Yes I, know, this is just one poll.

It is also a registered voter poll.

The states are what matter.

It is still early.

There are all kinds of caveats.

Still, this comports with what I think will ultimately be the tale of this election. Specifically: Trump has a ceiling and he has little chance of moving beyond it. As people get closer and closer to having to make an actual choice, a chunk of those undecideds will migrate to Biden.

I will feel admit that this assertion is a mix of analysis based on evidence and part of it is driven by hope.

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42 responses to “Some Polling Progress for Biden”

  1. Tony W Avatar
    Tony W

    I can’t figure out why we have ever done national polls of voters for President. As you state, the entire race will come down to 6-8 states, and nothing else matters.

    I suppose it feeds some narrative that we somehow elect our president democratically, and maybe that makes people feel better.

    7
  2. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    The trend has been moving Biden’s way since a week before the State of the Union speech. Recent developments are only going to help Biden. I continue to believe Biden will win, and it won’t be close. Trump is going to be further exposed [during the trial starting on Monday] as an even more odious human being than previously believed. That, along with his abortion flip-flops, his ever-increasing lack of verbal coherence, and his inability to stick to norms, will doom him eventually.

    6
  3. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    A few data points:

    Pro-Trump media landscape ‘utterly collapsing’ compared to last election cycle

    In the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, a slew of far-right websites popped up and cashed in on content propping up then-candidate Donald Trump. And those sites continued to rake in millions of dollars during Trump’s time in the White House. But since 2020, the right-wing media cash spigot has effectively slowed to a trickle.

    A new report in the Atlantic found that since the 2020 election cycle, the most prominent pro-Trump websites have seen their once robust traffic dry up. Writer Paul Farhi analyzed data from media analysis website The Righting, which focuses on conservative publishers, and reported that of the 10 most popular right-wing websites, traffic was down by an average of roughly 40%.

    “The flow of traffic to Donald Trump’s most loyal digital-media boosters isn’t just slowing, as in the rest of the industry; it’s utterly collapsing,” Farhi wrote. “Some of the bigger names in the field have been pummeled the hardest: The Daily Caller lost 57 percent of its audience; Drudge Report, the granddaddy of conservative aggregation, was down 81 percent; and The Federalist, founded just over a decade ago, lost a staggering 91 percent.”


    Trump’s “Truth Social” Stock Has Crashed So Hard It’s Worth Less Than Half of What It Was Two Weeks Ago

    Trump’s First Trial Marks Watershed Moment for America

    1
  4. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    I don’t know what will happen.

    These are the two most unpopular candidates in the history of modern polling. I think that fact makes predictions a lot more uncertain. We know Trump has a ceiling, but it’s increasingly looking like Biden does too. His unfavorables aren’t moving and are still higher than Trump’s.

    I tend to think a lot will come down to what happens with the economy over the next 6-7 months and that is something neither one can control.

    2
  5. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    @Andy:

    These are the two most unpopular candidates in the history of modern polling.

    While this may be true, it simply doesn’t mean the same thing it would have meant 30 or even 20 years ago, at least in Biden’s case. In past elections most people started out at least theoretically open to judging a candidate on their merits, so if one was significantly unpopular it meant they were universally unpopular, and even their partisans were likely to be unenthusiastic. But today’s MAGAs are completely against anyone with a D in front of their name, and cannot ascribe any positive to a Democrat whatsoever.

    The slice of the electorate that is made up today by MAGA’s wouldn’t have voted for him even 30 years ago, but they wouldn’t have demonized him and wouldn’t have so relentlessly negative in their responses. I think the polls on popularity have lost their connection to previous such polls.

    9
  6. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    @Andy: I’m with Eddie. Right now the only people even paying attention are those of us who are most interested. The rest are either only peripherally aware, or are what LGM’s Paul Campos calls “the Ariana Grande vote,” as in those who are as aware of politics as he is of Ariana Grande (he knows she is a person who sings, and that’s about it). When the Ariana Grande vote starts paying attention, they will see a profoundly disturbing display of utter crassness, an obviously degenerating mental state (and if you haven’t seen the clip of him railing against “Letitia Jones,” you should find it), and the worst make-up job in history (as one comment I saw said: “he looks like an unwiped ass”).

    And that doesn’t even count the utter shitshow that will befall the GOP writ large because Dobbs is the gift that will keep on giving.

    3
  7. Scott F. Avatar
    Scott F.

    @Andy:

    We know Trump has a ceiling, but it’s increasingly looking like Biden does too.

    Is this based on anything more than Biden’s unfavorables? As Eddie in CA notes, Biden has a strongly positioned Democratic Party and a lot of undercurrents in his favor.

    2
  8. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    but it’s increasingly looking like Biden does too

    Well, to be fair, they all have ceilings. I would argue that while Trump’s ceiling in elections has been below 50%, Biden’s has been above 50%. I think this is still true.

    Now, the question is whether the 8% will actually go third party. I don’t think they will, so where to they go?

    I think there is more reason to assume they go Biden than they go Trump.

    But, like you, I don’t know what will happen.

    4
  9. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @MarkedMan:

    While this may be true, it simply doesn’t mean the same thing it would have meant 30 or even 20 years ago,

    I think this is an important observation that is not getting sufficient critical attention.

    I think that in this era of polarization, we are going to see most candidates going forward to be largely unpopular. The baseline of popularity is only just above 50% in this current era.

    3
  10. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    Fundamentally I think that people can not have a favorable view of a candidate and yet vote for that candidate (and I think this is true for both candidates).

    Just like I can hold the opinion that Biden is, at least in the abstract, too old to be president and yet I will absolutely be voting for him in November.

    7
  11. DK Avatar
    DK

    Are the Substack bros still selling their “Biden is losing by every metric” canard, or nah?

    Another close presidential election that will turn on who can motivate more of their voters to actually show up in and handful of states. This time: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

    Le yawn.

    2
  12. DK Avatar
    DK

    @Mikey:

    When the Ariana Grande vote starts paying attention

    From this poll’s writeup:

    President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts

    Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago…

    …only one in four voters said they were yet paying very close attention to the former president’s legal travails.

    The Biden campaign, which has already begun advertising in battleground states, has hoped the reality of a potential second Trump term will snap reluctant Democrats back toward their typical partisan posture. There is some initial evidence of that happening.

    Drip drip drip.

    1
  13. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @MarkedMan:

    While this may be true, it simply doesn’t mean the same thing it would have meant 30 or even 20 years ago, at least in Biden’s case.

    That’s a bold assertion, considering the present circumstances are novel.

    In past elections most people started out at least theoretically open to judging a candidate on their merits, so if one was significantly unpopular it meant they were universally unpopular, and even their partisans were likely to be unenthusiastic. But today’s MAGAs are completely against anyone with a D in front of their name, and cannot ascribe any positive to a Democrat whatsoever.

    The problem with your argument here is that straight-line partisan voting has been with us for a very long time on both sides. Well before Trump entered the picture, lots of people (including many regulars here) were in the tank for one side or another and completely against anyone with a D/R in front of their name.

    Biden’s unfavorable rating is at 55%, so it can’t be solely attributed to the MAGA base (which is only about 15% of the population) or even Republicans generally.

    @Mikey:

    The thing is, he’s already been President, so everyone knows what they are getting.

    Not only is this a contest between the two most unpopular candidates in modern Presidential history, but it’s also novel in that it involves two incumbents.

    As for Trump, he is crass. Yes, he has weird hair and makeup. Is this what Campos thinks will be the path to victory for Biden? To me, this is all repeating the mistakes of 2016.

    And Dobbs? Well, Trump is to the left of the GoP on abortion and has been for a quite a while now. He’s smart enough to understand that vulnerability and is already making moves to guard against it. He’s purposely not endorsing a national abortion ban. He came out quickly stating that Arizona needs to fix the mess they are in. The hard-core pro-lifers aren’t happy with him, but he’s betting they’ll vote for him anyway, and they probably will.

    @Scott F.:

    Is this based on anything more than Biden’s unfavorables? As Eddie in CA notes, Biden has a strongly positioned Democratic Party and a lot of undercurrents in his favor.

    Well, yes. Favorability matters a great deal for getting reelected. Being unpopular is bad. The candidate with the higher net favorability tends to win the vast majority of the time. The only reason Biden isn’t totally screwed is because Trump’s favorability is just as bad. Even most campaign professionals in the Democratic party seem to agree that Biden would almost certainly lose if the GoP had nominated Haley instead.

  14. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    @Andy:

    Even most campaign professionals in the Democratic party seem to agree that Biden would almost certainly lose if the GoP had nominated Haley instead.

    And? That’s a completely bullshit meaningless metric.

    Based on the polls, a not-small percentage of Haley voters will vote for Biden. The choice is Biden V Trump, RFK Jr, West, and Williamson notwithstanding.

    1
  15. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    That’s a bold assertion, considering the present circumstances are novel.

    But they aren’t. We are now at least 12 years and three presidential electoral cycles (plus any number of other elections) into a clearly sorted and polarized context.

    6
  16. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    Even most campaign professionals in the Democratic party seem to agree that Biden would almost certainly lose if the GoP had nominated Haley instead.

    This is more than a little silly. Did many Dems fear that that might be the case? Of course. But the notion that “Biden would almost certainly lose” against Haley would have been, at best, rank speculation.

    2
  17. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    I think that in this era of polarization, we are going to see most candidates going forward to be largely unpopular. The baseline of popularity is only just above 50% in this current era.

    Except Biden was much more popular when he campaigned and during the initial months of his Presidency. It tanked after the Afghanistan debacle and hasn’t recovered. I think the argument that Biden’s current unpopularity is somehow just normal baked-in polarization is a mistake – he used to be a lot more popular, and now he isn’t.

    Now, the question is whether the 8% will actually go third party. I don’t think they will, so where to they go?

    I think there is more reason to assume they go Biden than they go Trump.

    Maybe! I don’t know. And for this, I’m only really looking at the swing states, which this poll doesn’t tell us about. I think the polling firms really need to start doing more swing-state polling.

    The economy and immigration still dominate most voters’ concerns, and my guess is that the swing votes will turn on those.

  18. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    Trump Claims He Did MORE For Black People Than Lincoln — The One Who Ended Slavery — In Jaw-Dropping Interview

    DONALD TRUMP: Now, the African-American population is, we’re at the highest level anyone’s ever been at as a Republican.

    It still should be much higher because of what I’ve done with criminal justice reform, with funding the Black colleges and universities, with all of the opportunity zones.

    Nobody’s done more than I have. I say nobody’s done more since Abraham Lincoln. I actually wanted to go beyond Abraham Lincoln, but some people thought that wasn’t a good thing to do. So I left it at that. I said Abraham Lincoln.

    Can’t wait to see how this plays out in Miami, West Palm, Atlanta, Athens, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Pittsburg, Charlotte, Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Phoenix, and Tuscon.

    3
  19. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    Biden’s unfavorable rating is at 55%, so it can’t be solely attributed to the MAGA base (which is only about 15% of the population) or even Republicans generally.

    Most Republicans don’t approve by default. That accounts for at least 40%-45%. From there all it takes is some number of Dems to have an unfavorable view (of which there will always be some).

    I think that you have to read approval/disapproval in that way. Assume that negative partisanship means that the best a person can hope for under near-perfect conditions is mid-50%ish and that being underwater is the most likely outcome.

    3
  20. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy:

    Except Biden was much more popular when he campaigned and during the initial months of his Presidency.

    Well, that’s true if “much more popular” is the mid-50s.

    Maybe! I don’t know. And for this, I’m only really looking at the swing states, which this poll doesn’t tell us about. I think the polling firms really need to start doing more swing-state polling.

    I mean, sure, “maybe” does a lot of work and kind of ignores known patterns (which can change, but by that logic, “something” could happen and Biden could win 70% or Trump could).

    And they will do that polling when we get closer. It is too early.

    I am reading this poll, as I do all polls, in the context of when they are taken and what I understand the likely possibilities to be.

    2
  21. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    But they aren’t. We are now at least 12 years and three presidential electoral cycles (plus any number of other elections) into a clearly sorted and polarized context.

    The present circumstances are novel for two reasons:

    – We’ve never had two candidates this unpopular before. This goes beyond mere sorting and polarization.
    – These are two de facto incumbents.

    @EddieInCA:

    Who would you rather Biden run against, Trump or Haley?

    1
  22. EddieInCA Avatar
    EddieInCA

    @Andy:

    Who would you rather Biden run against, Trump or Haley?

    In what reality does Biden run against Haley? When/Where/How does that happen? In the real world, Biden is running against Trump. All the other fantasies are irrelevant, unless the GOP decides to make a switch at the convention, which would lead to MAGA staying home and Biden winning 40 states.

    1
  23. wr Avatar
    wr

    @Andy: “He’s smart enough to understand that vulnerability and is already making moves to guard against it.”

    At the same time he’s putting out ads saying he killed Roe v. Wade.

    That kind of Schrodinger’s issue-positioning worked for him in 2016. But it sure seems like people — and even some people in the political press — have figured out that what he says means nothing, because he will say anything for momentary advantage.

    Also, “I’m opposed to a national ban because we need to leave it to the states” was not particularly reassuring before Arizona decided to return to the laws of the Civil War period. Today it just means that he’ll go along with whatever religious whackadoodles seize power in a red state. No one’s buying his waffling.

    2
  24. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    Well, that’s true if “much more popular” is the mid-50s.

    A swing from 55% popularity (his high was actually 57%) to 55% unpopularity in a 50/50 country is a pretty big swing, especially when that results in an approval number (40% – his low was 37%), which is historically low for this stage of a first term.

    If what you’re saying is true that everyone is sorted and polarized, then we shouldn’t be seeing such historically divergent numbers or such large swings.

    I mean, sure, “maybe” does a lot of work and kind of ignores known patterns (which can change, but by that logic, “something” could happen and Biden could win 70% or Trump could).

    It doesn’t ignore any known patterns; “maybe” simply acknowledges that your theory could be correct.

    To state my point again – I don’t know what the outcome will be – and I think it is far too early to predict. For the reasons I’ve given above, as well as in other discussions, I’m not very confident in reliance on “known patterns” – whatever those are – this time around.

    I also come at this from the perspective of tactics and strategy in terms of winning, and from that perspective, making hopeful assumptions about all sorts of things is not something I’m predisposed to do.

  25. Liberal Capitalist Avatar
    Liberal Capitalist

    This is another great example of “dog catching car”.

    It’s easy to say that an outsider can govern better. But that’s a 2015 argument: Trump was their “successful businessman” that could run America like a tight ship.

    By 2020, that argument no longer held water. And then came J6 to kick off 2021.

    The remainder of 2021 through 2023 was all about tribal justification for J6. That drive for justification resulted in all other republicans being sidelined in late 2023 so that Trump can get his revenge against a country that had turned its back on him. (A very odd place from which to run, considering that those who would be vilified in a next Trump term are necessary votes for him to win.)

    Now, in 2024, we have trials after trials where suddenly any gilding on the turd is constantly being rubbed off.

    Tribal positioning is still V E RY L O U D from the MAGA minority, but the reality of making a decision for the next 4 years on Tuesday Nov 5th requires someone with the ability to govern, and congressmembers that actually understand what it takes to pass useful legislation.

    The Hoi Palloi know: It isn’t another Trump term with a Republican do-nothing congress.

    Democracy may just win out.

    1
  26. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @EddieInCA:

    In what reality does Biden run against Haley? When/Where/How does that happen?

    In the original comment you responded to, I was giving a counterfactual, not saying anything about the present or the future.

    @wr:

    Yes, all that means it won’t be easy to paint Trump as a hard-core pro-lifer. That doesn’t mean Democrats shouldn’t press Dobbs and abortion for all it’s worth – they should – but they should also keep in mind where a majority of Americans are on this, and it’s in the mushy middle.

  27. Just nutha ignint cracker Avatar
    Just nutha ignint cracker

    @Andy: I saw Eddie arguing against his own assumption about the counterfactual when he said:

    Based on the polls, a not-small percentage of Haley voters will vote for Biden.

    That statement would seem to carry the notion that Haley would have been a better choice for a Republican party that wanted to win the Presidency*, but that’s still a pretty speculative position.

    *Assuming that Haley takes 100% of the Haley vote and most of the remaining Republican vote (allowing for some Rs deciding not to vote over voting for not Trump), and some portion of the undecided/swing vote many are assuming Trump can’t get. Why Republicans haven’t done/can’t do/won’t do that math is beyond me, but I suspect that Q-anon plays a role.

  28. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    @Andy:

    The problem with your argument here is that straight-line partisan voting has been with us for a very long time on both sides.

    I assumed you were talking about polls on popularity not polls on who who they would vote for. In my original reply I pointed out, the same as you, that partisan voting was around even 20-30 years ago. What has changed is the demonization of the Democrats by Republicans. It’s not enough not to vote for them, they have to be painted as pedophiles and literally agents of the devil.

    Up until recently Larry Hogan was my Governor. I didn’t vote for him, but recognize that he’s a nice enough guy and was a decent governor. So far the same can be said about the Democrat who replaced him. But do you think the MAGA’s feel that way? They very loudly and publicly do not.

    1
  29. MarkedMan Avatar
    MarkedMan

    @Andy:C’mon Andy! Considering that we are discussing what it means in this day and age that a president is unpopular, this is almost a textbook definition of circular reasoning

    The present circumstances are novel for two reasons:

    – We’ve never had two candidates this unpopular before

  30. DK Avatar
    DK

    @Andy:

    That doesn’t mean Democrats shouldn’t press Dobbs and abortion for all it’s worth – they should – but they should also keep in mind where a majority of Americans are on this, and it’s in the mushy middle.

    What’s the mushy middle position on Dobbs, Roe, and abortion?

    Surveys are showing Americans favoring fewer abortion than they did pre-Dobbs. That’s an inexplicable backlash and disaster for the anti-abortion movement.

    Recent polling and abortion-related election results indicate the vast majority Americans intensely disliked the Dobbs result ending a national right to abortion, with outcomes like state-by-state chaos and draconian bans. Americans are broadly and cross-ideologically supportive of efforts to enshrine abortion rights into state law via direct vote, even in Republican-run states.

    That’s where Democrats are and where Biden is, despite his private and personal opposition to abortion. That’s not where Trump is — he’s still taking credit for the end of Roe. The middle wanted Roe/Casey left mostly alone. They did not want abortion law sent down to states, where Republicans are implementing increased abortion bans.

    The Overton window here shifted left overnight. It’s a political shock.

    3
  31. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    @Andy:

    As for Trump, he is crass. Yes, he has weird hair and makeup. Is this what Campos thinks will be the path to victory for Biden? To me, this is all repeating the mistakes of 2016.

    This isn’t 2016 and Trump is orders of magnitude worse, but most Americans haven’t realized it yet. They think they know what they’re getting with Trump, but they really don’t, and when the Ariana Grande voters start paying attention they’re in for a shock.

    And Dobbs? Well, Trump is to the left of the GoP on abortion and has been for a quite a while now.

    Where Trump pretends to be on abortion is almost entirely irrelevant to the effect Dobbs is going to have on the election.

    1
  32. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy: We had two almost as unpopular candidates in 2016.

    I think you are being a bit argumentative on this point.

    I think you are utterly ignoring polarization and its significance.

    The two incumbents is a unique situation, so you have a point there.

    1
  33. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy: polarized does not mean every poll is 50-50.

    The progressives upset over Gaza mean, for example, some disapproval for Biden.

    Perhaps I am doing a poor job of explaining my position, but it feels like you aren’t trying very hard to get it. You come across as interpreting approval polls like it’s 1984 (or even 2oo4) not 2024.

    1
  34. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    That statement would seem to carry the notion that Haley would have been a better choice for a Republican party that wanted to win the Presidency*, but that’s still a pretty speculative position.

    Speculative, sure, but by all the fundamentals, Haley is a much stronger general election candidate than Trump – is there anyone serious who disagrees with that? Democrats were pretty explicit that, given the choice, they would rather face Trump than Haley. Given that Biden currently has lower approval than Carter, George HW Bush, and Trump at this point in 2020 (all of whom lost), it’s not crazy to suggest that Haley would have a very good chance of beating him.

    @MarkedMan:

    Considering that we are discussing what it means in this day and age that a president is unpopular, this is almost a textbook definition of circular reasoning

    I don’t think it’s circular reasoning at all. The fact that Americans disapprove of both candidates by solid majorities – currently larger than any others in modern polling history – is both novel and relevant. The only other election in modern history that I’m aware of where both candidates were close to this unpopular was 2016, and in that case, it drove a decisive level of third-party voting, among other effects. It seems unlikely that there will be a similarly big third-party vote this time, but we just don’t have a lot of experience to draw on with this situation.

    @DK:

    What’s the mushy middle position on Dobbs, Roe, and abortion?

    Generally, I think people want few to no restrictions on abortion until sometime around viability and then some restrictions after that. The details seem to be highly dependent on poll wording. What’s clear is that hardly anyone wants a total ban on abortions at one extreme or abortions with no restrictions or oversight at all at the other.

    Surveys are showing Americans favoring fewer abortion than they did pre-Dobbs. That’s an inexplicable backlash and disaster for the anti-abortion movement.

    As I said in Steven’s other thread, I think the anti-abortion movement is on its last legs.

    And I agree with most of the rest of your comment. Note that I do think the abortion issue is good for Democrats, and they ought to press it, but I don’t think it’s a political kill shot against Trump.

    The middle wanted Roe/Casey left mostly alone. They did not want abortion law sent down to states, where Republicans are implementing increased abortion bans.

    Yes, he was a major player in killing Roe, but when it comes to actual abortion policy, he’s more moderate (at least that’s what he says; we both know Trump lacks any serious moral convictions) than pretty much any previous Republican Presidential nominee. He’s mentioned 20 weeks and 16 weeks as a personal vew which are in line with Roe/Casey. He says he opposes a national abortion ban. He hasn’t supported the 6-week laws in GoP states. He said Alabama needs to fix the IVF debacle, and Arizona needs to fix its zero abortions debacle.

    I don’t want to give Trump too much credit here, but he seems to have a much better understanding of where the American people are and has adjusted his message accordingly compared to the rest of the GoP. It’s going to be difficult, for example, for Democrats to run a message that Trump wants a national 6-week abortion ban when he is on record specifically not wanting that. Again, though, I think this is mainly a matter of degree. Abortion is still a critical advantage for Democrats – I don’t think – at this point – it will be as big of an advantage as many are claiming, but we’ll find out!

    @Mikey:

    This isn’t 2016 and Trump is orders of magnitude worse, but most Americans haven’t realized it yet. They think they know what they’re getting with Trump, but they really don’t, and when the Ariana Grande voters start paying attention they’re in for a shock.

    Maybe you are right! We’ll find out soon enough.

    I agree to a limited extent that some people have probably forgotten about Trump. They’ll be reminded of him in the same way one might see the creepy uncle at Christmas that they haven’t seen for a few years and be reminded of just how creepy they are.

    Where Trump pretends to be on abortion is almost entirely irrelevant to the effect Dobbs is going to have on the election.

    Maybe! It seems to me the two are entirely intertwined.

  35. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    I think you are being a bit argumentative on this point.

    I think you are utterly ignoring polarization and its significance.

    and

    Perhaps I am doing a poor job of explaining my position, but it feels like you aren’t trying very hard to get it. You come across as interpreting approval polls like it’s 1984 (or even 2oo4) not 2024.

    I’m not ignoring polarization. I agree polarization is a factor! I think you’re ignoring the significance of having the two most unpopular candidates in history run for President.

    IMO, Polarization alone doesn’t explain both candidates having ~55% disapproval and only ~40% approval. Biden had a 20-point downward approval swing over the course of his Presidency. I don’t see how that is explained by polarization.

    So, what is your theory, specifically, about polarization that you think I’m not getting that explains this?

  36. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @Andy: Polarization doesn’t and can’t explain the unpopularity. Largely because how tall someone is doesn’t explain how much they weigh.

    Polarization explains, at least in the point I am trying to make, as to why we have to recalibrate and reconsider how we discuss approval/popularity numbers. I am of the view that above you aren’t doing so in your assessments.

  37. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    Regardless, it won’t shock me if Biden goes into this elected with 45% approval (or lower) and still wi s 52%+ of the vote.

    Quite clearly the two numbers do not measure the same things.

    2
  38. Kari Q Avatar
    Kari Q

    @Tony W:

    I can’t figure out why we have ever done national polls of voters for President. As you state, the entire race will come down to 6-8 states, and nothing else matters

    Because it’s easier and cheaper to do a national poll than a state poll. A national poll also gives you a good idea of where things stand in swing states anyway. If the GOP candidate is ahead by a point, I know they will win Georgia and probably lose Wisconsin. If the Dem candidate is ahead by a point, they will win Wisconsin and lose Georgia by a couple points. If national polling is as close as this, then state polls won’t give a clearer picture.

    @Andy:

    Even most campaign professionals in the Democratic party seem to agree that Biden would almost certainly lose if the GoP had nominated Haley instead.

    I don’t think this is true at all. Granted there are voters who will vote for Biden over Trump but would have voted for Haley over Biden. But there are other votes who will vote for only Trump and would not vote at all if Haley was the nominee. Does this work out to a net loss or gain for the Republican candidate? No one knows. It’s pure speculation.

    That said:

    @Andy:

    Who would you rather Biden run against, Trump or Haley?

    Haley. Absolutely and from every standpoint. The country would be better off with a Haley candidacy (by far the most important consideration) but I personally think Biden would have an easier time beating her. But that’s pure speculation, and I could easily be wrong.

  39. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    @Andy: What I mean is Trump’s position on Dobbs was solidified the moment he took credit for killing Roe v. Wade, so whatever lies he spits out now won’t make much difference. Nobody who supports reproductive rights will be fooled.

    Although to be fair, in the sense his blather about leaving it up to the states, the effect of which was seen almost immediately when the AZ Supreme Court decided to enforce a law from pre-AZ-statehood to ban abortion in the state, he will definitely have an effect.

  40. Rick DeMent Avatar
    Rick DeMent

    @Andy:

    Haley is a much stronger general election candidate than Trump – is there anyone serious who disagrees with that?

    I do.

    If Haley was a much stronger general election candidate than Trump she would have beat Trump. But even if she did beat Trump in the primaries it would have been by nose hair and all it would have taken would be 2 or 3% of hard-core “Trump or bust” voters to “not show up” and Haley would lose the general. The problem with the GOP right now is that there are two parties, MAGA and the GOPand they are not the same. There is a slice of their voter base who are Trump voters first and GOP voters second. I can’t say with any objective data how big of a contingent it is only to say that any increase in voters staying home hands the win to Biden. Further, I also think that this slice of uber-MAGA voters are the type who would just stay home like they did before if Trump isn’t at the top of the ticket.

  41. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    Regardless, it won’t shock me if Biden goes into this elected with 45% approval (or lower) and still wi s 52%+ of the vote.

    Well sure, I realize that Biden will get more votes than his popularity numbers suggest. When voting choice is constrained by a de facto binary contest, that’s what happens. By the same token, it’s very unlikely Trump will only get 40% of the vote.

    Let’s say the disapproval numbers for each candidate were 75%. Polarization and a binary choice mean that voting behavior will be funneled into one of those two choices, and the actual number of votes received will be much higher.

    You seem to be suggesting that because of this, candidate popularity doesn’t matter. My view is that it does, especially at the margins where close elections are usually decided.

    It seems that many people are trying hard to downplay Biden’s unpopularity and make it seem like it’s no big deal. The assumption seems to be that polarization ensures that everyone who leans D will end up not only turning out, but voting for him anyway. And that will be true for many, if not most, D-aligned voters. However, margins in the swing states are likely to be close enough that “most” may not be sufficient. And, of course, this neglects the fact that swing voters do exist in numbers that are decisive in close contests (ie. the past two Presidential elections), and here is where relative popularity is likely to matter a great deal.

    Of course, all of this affects Trump, too, and he is deeply unpopular. But that just shows what a tremendous advantage it would be to have better approval ratings than he does to have a competitive advantage in swing states. Hopefully, Biden’s numbers will improve, but it should be concerning to anyone who wants him to beat Trump (like me) that they aren’t, and downplaying Biden’s historic disapproval as not a big deal is a mistake, in my opinion.

    @Mikey:

    Nobody who supports reproductive rights will be fooled.

    I think the voters who put abortion near the top of their priority list are already in the Democratic camp. You’re right, they won’t be fooled. But the people who don’t care as much about abortion and don’t pay as much attention to politics certainly could be.

    @Rick DeMent:

    If Haley was a much stronger general election candidate than Trump she would have beat Trump.

    Our primary system – especially for the GoP currently – doesn’t select candidates based on general election strength – at all.

  42. Raoul Avatar
    Raoul

    The election will come down to Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden needs to carry one because Arizona will vote Dem. I expect Biden to carry both, the Arab vote will vote Dem because they will realize that the other side is worse and they don’t want their friends and relatives deported. Sen. Johnson won a tough race by 1% in Wisconsin last year. I would expect a higher Dem turnout on a presidential year. Also North Carolina polling seems close. North Carolina is like Virginia but twenty years behind. This could be the year.

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