The flurry of polls as we approach the 100-day mark of the second Trump administration shows deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. But, with few exceptions, they mostly show the polarization of the country.
Four decades ago, the sociologist Donald Horowitz observed that, in deeply divided societies, elections tend to resemble an ethnic census. We seem to be in that position here on just about every issue, with party alignment substituting for ethnicity (granting that there is some significant overlap).
The AP/NORC poll (“100 days in and the public feels Trump’s presidency is proceeding mostly as expected“) shows this with the most clarity. The writeup tries to spin it differently:
The public broadly feels the first few months of the Trump administration’s second term are unfolding as expected. But nearly twice as many say President Trump is mostly focusing on the wrong priorities than say he’s focusing on the right ones.
About 100 days into his second term, 31% view Trump’s presidency as good or great, while about half have a negative view. Overall, 39% have a favorable opinion of how Trump has been handling his job and 58% have an unfavorable view. Immigration remains one Trump’s strongest policy issues and he garners higher approval than his handling of other issues like trade or the economy.
While most views of the president and his administration are filtered through a partisan lens, Republicans and Democrats are largely in agreement regarding their expectations for the new administration.
Eight in 10 Republicans and 7 in 10 Democrats are unsurprised by Trump and his policies in the first 100 days.
So, we have consensus! But, of course, Democrats expected it to be horrible and Republicans expected it to be great.
While there is agreement along party lines that Trump’s first few months are in line with expectations, partisan opinion diverges on the administration’s actions, priorities, and personnel.
A majority of the public disapproves of Trump overall as president (59% vs 39%). This is starkly divided along party lines. The partisan divide carries through to Trump’s performance on a range of issues with the majority of Democrats disapproving and the majority of Republicans approving. People unaffiliated with either of the major parties tend to be more positive than Democrats, but still just about 3 in 10 approve of Trump’s handling on most issues.
Only on trade negotiations is Republican approval below 70 percent. Meanwhile, there is no issue where Democrats are above 16 percent approval. Independents, whoever they might be, are somewhere in between but they’re definitely closer to Democrats on these issues: there’s not a single one with higher than 37 percent approval.
About half of the public thinks Trump has been a poor or terrible president so far in his second term, about 2 in 10 view his presidency as average, and 3 in 10 think is has been great or good.
Ahead of his inauguration in January, 37% expected he would be a great or good president, 46% thought he would be poor or terrible and 17% said he would be average.
Democrats are more consistent here: a whopping 72 percent think Trump has been “terrible,” with a charitable 12 percent giving him merely a “poor.” Republicans are less enthusiastic in the views, with only 41 percent rating him “great” and another 27 percent rating him “good.” Still, that’s more than two-thirds who are pretty satisfied. Once again, those who call themselves “Independents” are much, much closer to Democrats in their assessment.
There is no consensus on whether Trump has the right priorities, but many are skeptical. Forty four percent think Trump is focusing on the wrong priorities. A quarter think he has the right priorities and another 2 in 10 think his priorities are an even mix of right and wrong.
Again, this is divided along party lines. Half of Republicans feel that, for the most part, Trump’s priorities have been correct, compared with just 7% of Democrats and 9% of independents.
Once again, Democrats are much more enthusiastic, with three-quarters saying he’s focused on the wrong priorities; only a slight majority of Republicans think he’s mostly focused on the right priorities. If you add in those who say it’s “about an even mix,” though, you get to eighty percent.
All of this bodes well for Democrats retaking control of Congress in 2026, and likely doing well in state-level contests being held this November. Unfortunately, it makes it highly unlikely that Republican lawmakers will rein in Trump excesses except perhaps on the occasional 80 percent case.
