According to Department of Commerce figures, there has been a marked decline in international travel to the United States since the beginning of the year:
Fewer international travelers came to the United States during the first few months of this year than over the same period last year, confirming concerns of some in the travel industry.
New figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce show a drop in international visitors to the United States by close to 700,000 in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the previous year. European countries were down 10.1 percent, and Mexico was off 7.1 percent in the quarter. The largest drops were from the Middle East and Africa, though they represent a much smaller percentage of overall travel to the United States.
Overall, 697,791 fewer foreigners visited the United States in the first three months of the year, down 4.2 percent to 15.8 million. According to Tourism Economics, a branch of Oxford Economics based in Wayne, Pa., that analyzes travel data, the drop represents a loss of nearly $2.7 billion in spending.
As points of comparison, the first quarter of 2013, after the reelection of Barack Obama, international tourism was up 6.4 percent, and the first quarter of 2009, after President Obama’s first election (and during global recession that began at the end of 2008), it was down 14.3 percent.
The question of whether the results prove a ripple effect from President Trump’s proposed travel ban on visitors from six majority-Muslim countries, an expanded wall along the Mexican border and anti-immigrant statements remains unanswered. But the data tracks with a decline in United States favorability abroad: In June, the Pew Research Center found that 49 percent of those surveyed in 37 nations had a positive view of the United States, versus 64 percent at the end of President Obama’s term in office.
Last week, Pew reported that nearly two-thirds of Mexicans held a negative opinion of the United States, more than double the figure of two years ago, which stood at 29 percent.
“It’s not a reach to say the rhetoric and policies of this administration are affecting sentiment around the world, creating antipathy toward the U.S. and affecting travel behavior,” said Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics.
In response to a Facebook post by The New York Times, European readers overwhelmingly cited the Trump administration and its policies as reasons for avoiding or canceling trips to the United States.
“We are British Muslims and live in London,” Sabaa Farrukh wrote. “We wanted to visit N.Y.C. this summer but decided against it simply because we felt we wouldn’t be welcome there and didn’t want to waste precious holiday time in case there was a problem at passport control at the airport.”
Others cited violence and safety. Marika Treichel, who lives in Denmark, wrote, “I have always dreamed of visiting the US. But the rise of gun violence and political chaos has made me want to cancel all future travels to the U.S. until I can feel safe as a tourist.”
In response to a Facebook post by The New York Times, European readers overwhelmingly cited the Trump administration and its policies as reasons for avoiding or canceling trips to the United States.
“We are British Muslims and live in London,” Sabaa Farrukh wrote. “We wanted to visit N.Y.C. this summer but decided against it simply because we felt we wouldn’t be welcome there and didn’t want to waste precious holiday time in case there was a problem at passport control at the airport.”
Others cited violence and safety. Marika Treichel, who lives in Denmark, wrote, “I have always dreamed of visiting the US. But the rise of gun violence and political chaos has made me want to cancel all future travels to the U.S. until I can feel safe as a tourist.”
This has been a strong year for the U.S. dollar, which makes travel more expensive for other currencies — though exceptions make that an unsatisfying explanation for the tourism drop. The Canadian dollar, for example, is weaker than it has been in previous years (despite a summer surge), yet Canadian tourism to the United States was up 14.8 percent January through April.
Within Europe, the tourism declines were largest in Switzerland at nearly 28 percent, Belgium at 20 percent and Britain at 15.5 percent. Britain accounts for the largest share by country of European arrivals in the United States, with 4.5 million tourists last year, making its slowdown significant. (Asian tourism was about the same as last year — up .6 percent — mainly due to a surge of South Korean travelers, up over 15 percent in the first quarter.)
This isn’t the first time there’s been a report about lower international travel to the United States since the start of the year. Back in March, travel industry experts were reporting a noticeable drop in tourism to the United States, most prominently from European nations that account for a large part of the tourism dollars that the U.S. benefits from. As I pointed out at the time, though, it’s important not to fall into the trap of falling into a post hoc ergo propter hoc trap. The fact that there has been a drop in tourism since the start of the year doesn’t mean that it’s due to the fact that Donald Trump was elected President. There could be any number of reasons why we’ve seen a drop. As the article linked above notes, for example, the U.S. dollar has been particularly strong this year, which makes travel to the United States from other nations more expensive depending on the particular exchange rate. Additionally, it appears from looking at the data that there are some parts of the world, such as several Asian nations such as South Korea, that have shown an increase in tourism since the start of the year. Similarly, there was an increase in travel from Canada despite the fact that the Canadian Dollar has weakened this year compared to previous years. Finally, the decline in travel could just be a reflection of temporary changes in consumer preference or people deciding to stay close to home at a time when international tensions in a variety of quarters is becoming higher.
Taking those caveats into account, though, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if Trump’s election is playing some role in the decline in tourism from overseas. Over the past eight months, there have been several reports from various parts of the world documenting a measurable decline in positive opinions about the United States from residents of foreign countries since Trump took office. Some of the most significant drops in public opinion have come from many of the same European nations that have seen the biggest drops in travel to the United States. So, the possibility that at least part of this drop in international travel is due to how residents of other countries view the United States shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. If that is the reason, I can’t say I blame them. Being exposed to this guy on a daily basis here in the U.S. can be exhausting. The prospect of paying for that privilege may be more than some people are willing to bear.
