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Tuesday’s Forum
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31 responses to “Tuesday’s Forum”
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AI are not people, their “thinking” is not like ours:
Their only “motivation” is whatever was programmed into them.
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Interesting article on future of warfare:
The New Economics of Warfare: David vs Goliath
The most important lesson emerging from the Iran conflict may not actually be about Iran. It is about the changing economics of warfare and what happens when autonomy, artificial intelligence, commercial technology and inexpensive mass begin eroding advantages once reserved almost exclusively for major powers.
In many ways, modern warfare is increasingly becoming a story of David versus Goliath. The difference is that today’s David is armed with drones, software, commercial sensors, open-source intelligence and rapidly adaptable technology. Goliath still has overwhelming advantages in scale, firepower and resources, but the sling has become far more sophisticated — and far cheaper.
For most of the modern era, advanced military power belonged overwhelmingly to countries capable of spending billions of dollars on sophisticated aircraft, warships, missiles, sensors and command-and-control infrastructure. That advantage is not disappearing. Aircraft carriers, submarines, advanced fighters, bombers and integrated missile defenses remain essential instruments of national power. But the economics beneath them are changing as autonomy, AI, inexpensive sensors, commercial communications, advanced manufacturing and widely available components lower the cost of creating meaningful military effects.
Ukraine provided the first large-scale demonstration of this shift. A materially weaker “David” used drones, software, commercial technology, open-source intelligence and rapid battlefield innovation to impose extraordinary costs on a much larger Russian “Goliath.” Ukraine did not eliminate Russia’s advantages in manpower, missiles, aircraft or industrial capacity. It showed that technology could narrow the gap without matching a stronger adversary platform for platform.
Iran is now demonstrating another version of the same problem. Tehran cannot compete with the United States carrier for carrier, fighter for fighter or missile-defense battery for missile-defense battery, but it does not need to. Iran has spent decades investing in missiles, drones, proxies, cyber capabilities, maritime harassment, information warfare and strategic geography precisely because those tools allow a materially weaker power to impose disproportionate costs on a stronger one.
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The other day someone asked what we planned to do about drones and I snarkily suggested we were going to throw 5 million dollars at 5 thousand dollars.
This is a new WW1 where we saw the end of cavalry, and the futility of massed infantry attack, the appearance of the tank, and a battlefield that suddenly included ‘up’ as well as forward and back. Not to mention submarines.
One-sided military technology advantages are usually short-lived, and no doubt a more efficient way of fighting drones and cheap missiles will be found, but that’s ‘eventually,’ and right now we do indeed have a David v. Goliath situation.
And I’ll add again: drones + terrorism and drones + assassination are emerging domestic threats.
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For every drone countermeasure, there seems to be a drone development right around the corner that can defeat the countermeasure often enough to be effective. If the evolution of drone warfare ever slows down, then maybe the well-funded but deliberate-paced goliaths can catch up. I’m not terribly optimistic, but then again I’ve always been somewhat disturbed by drone light shows.
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Not that long ago, the US lost a war against North Vietnam. We had much better airplanes and naval forces than them. We did ok versus Saddam’s Iraq, but victory in Afghanistan was elusive. Right now we have a huge aircraft carrier fleet that humbles the rest of the earth, but only two of them are able to be in theater with six in port for maintenance. Let’s not focus too much on our wunderwaffen and remember that when we start something the other guy always gets a shot too.
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United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan raised the alarm directly with Netanyahu during a 45-minute conversation, three senior foreign sources familiar with the exchange told the Israeli newspaper, and reportedly warned that Sinwar was preparing a major operation.
Netanyahu reportedly responded that he believed Hamas intended to operate in the West Bank and assured the Emirati leader that Israel was prepared for any scenario.
The warning was apparently never passed to Israel’s top security officials. Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and former IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi both told Haaretz they had not been informed about the conversation.
…Haaretz also reported that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel separately contacted Netanyahu around the same period to warn that Hamas was planning “something unusual, a terrifying operation.” The prime minister, however, insisted again that Israel was in control and reportedly mentioned neither call during an October 1 security discussion about Hamas and Gaza.
The Prime Minister’s Office categorically denied the central allegation…
Narrator: Israel was neither prepared nor in control.
No news here. Bibi spent years supporting Hamas in some weird triangulation against the two-state solution / PLO / Israeli peace movement. So of course he couldn’t be bothered to even try to protect the kibbutzim from attack. Shades of Trump denying disaster aid to blue states, but worse.
It’s just odd how long Israelis have tolerated Bibi’s incompetence and ethical failures. But they’re human, and thus just as gullible for rightwing fake macho man bluster as the rest of us.
Looking forward to the Netanyahu-apologist spin tho. They always have some lame excuse or distraction tactic. “I don’t like Netanyahu but…” GFY
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This should be the final nail in Bibi’s coffin.
What a fucking disaster of a leader. When I saw him deliberately snubbing Obama and making Israel an ally not of the US but of the GOP, it was clear he had no long-term vision. Now the dumb bastard has made himself and more importantly his country, a pariah to the only polity still invested emotionally in Israel.
He is truly Israel’s Trump.
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Also, Netayahu’s associates and their friends in the US are currently engaged in a campaign of attempted intimidation against the UK.
Basically, if the UK imposes penalties on Israeli settlers carrying out violent land seizures and attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, Israel and the US should align with Argentina over the Falklands.
Plus the inevitable claims of “antisemitism” and “UK caliphate! Invaded by Muslims!”Epically stupid.
This especially annoys British Conservatives who are a major source of support for Israel in the UK.
Ignores the fact that in 2025 the UK took considerable risks to assist in the defence of Israel from Iranian attacks.
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How to open a vast amount of your personal information to Elon Musk, X, Facebook and Google:
With the midterm elections approaching, it’s a good idea to make sure you are registered. Each state has a tool to do so, and the federal government has set up a page that directs you to the right place, vote.gov.
Vote.gov, which is run by the Election Assistance Commission (EAC), does not ask for your personal information or track your activities. According to the site’s privacy policy, the EAC “does not collect personally-identifiable information about you when you visit our site, unless you choose to provide such information to us.” The exception to the policy is very limited. For example, if you email the EAC requesting information, they will retain your email address so they can send a response. Further, the EAC does not track your internet activity. “No cookies used by EAC ever store any information that may be used to identify you personally,” the commission’s privacy policy says.
But Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, is funding an aggressive advertising campaign encouraging people in key states to check their registration status at a different website, votesafe.org. That website is run by America PAC, Musk’s super PAC.
While Vote.gov collects no personal information, votesafe.org collects the following:
First, middle, and last name
Date of birth
Full home address
Email address
Cell phone number
IP address and location (This information is used to derive each user’s city, zip code, approximate longitude and latitude, time zone, and internet provider.)
Browser, operating system, screen size and language of your device
What website referred you to votesafe.org
Every link you click
Every page you look at
Your voter registration status (This is derived from a voter file held by America PAC or its vendors — not the state’s actual records.)
Your district and ballot (This is derived from Ballotpedia.)
Previously, votesafe.org had a privacy policy that provided some limitations on how America PAC could use this data:
Personal Identifying Information collected via the http://www.votesafe.org will only be used to support America PAC’s activities, and it will not be shared with any advertisers, political organizations, or third parties not directly affiliated with America PAC.
On August 29, 2026, the privacy policy was updated and no longer includes that language. The new version allows America PAC to “share” or “sell” personal information with “our business partners.” This includes selling information about “whether you are registered to vote” and “how you submit your vote… where permitted by law.”
Note closely the above – it does not even give you reliable information on your registration status.
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I’m gonna start publicly calling for either the seizure of Musk’s assets or his expulsion from the United States.
Won’t ever happen, but we should settle for an overhaul of the tax code to make it truly progressive, Warren’s wealth tax, taxes on capital gains, and an estate tax for super-rich. Force the American kleptocrats to either pay up or self-deport.
A boy can dream.
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Ben Rhodes has a really good piece at NYT on what Dems should do. I just read it and you should too, gift link.
But this speaks more to a patchwork of progress than a national shift toward the Democratic Party. Less than two years after a catastrophic election, the Democratic brand remains unpopular, and the party remains in the grip of a divisive identity crisis. As Democrats work to claw back power in the midterms, they should also reckon with how they can better position themselves as the political force that can decisively replace MAGA.
Running as a Democrat in 2026 is mainly helpful insofar as it distinguishes you from the alternative. Americans don’t need much convincing that Republicans must be checked, but when they look to Washington, they still see a sclerotic national party led by Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries that has struggled to address their fears about a corrupt political system, unfair economy, transformative technologies, endless wars and a lack of shared national identity.
I’ve felt, and often said here, that Dems have a terrible image problem. GOPs, being inveterate liars, have successfully sold an image as The Real Americans. Dems are widely regarded as the party of losers and weirdos, attractive only as not the incumbent bums. We’re more a real populist party than the faux populist GOPs, but nobody knows it.
I’ve struggled with what image the Ds should push and how to reduce it to a bumper sticker. Rhodes says,
To break this cycle, Democrats must put themselves on the side of Americans who feel as if they don’t have any power — or even agency — over their future. But that is not how the party is currently seen.
WE’RE ON YOUR SIDE would be a pretty good bumper sticker.
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I have no idea what Dems should do, but what they have been doing is sending me as many as 15 spam messages a day from various “sources” (including the DSCC, DCCC, DGA, Hakeem Jefferies, Nancy Pelosi, Andy Brashears, and Gretchen Whitmer) always (I assume, I’ve opened about 3) ending with a link to ActBlue to make it easy to contribute to the fight. This has been going on for 3 months now even though (or maybe because, who knows) I live in a county in Oregon that votes D +~50.
Color me unimpressed with the Democrat (not a typo) Party’s media savviness. Way to go, Gretch. 🙁
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what they have been doing is sending me as many as 15 spam messages a day
Have they? I get the same drivel, but assume that every bit of it is fake and immediately delete and block it. I treat it the same way I treat a message from my bank or the IRS or the USPS telling me to urgently log into this link.
If I actually want to donate to a Dem, I’ll go to ActBlue. If I wanted to donate to an Independent, it would take a bit more effort, but in neither case would I assume an email or text message was legit
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Rhodes’s piece is just the same ole cliched platitudes, non-specifics, and amorphous pablum. Still no fix for global hyperpolarization in an age of post-industrial, technology-driven alienation and misinformation.
Kudos to Ben for trying because what else can one do? But this is not insight:
“the Democratic establishment should step back and let a talented assortment of candidates be the face of the party”
Name names, Ben. Who comprises this omnipotent Dem establishment boogeyman and how are they distinct from successful Dem candidates? And who among them is out in front of candidates, uninvited?
It’s all the same people.
“If those lessons are uncomfortable in Washington, they must be urgently heeded instead of disappearing into business as usual.”
This passive voice circular reasoning to nowhere is called “filler” in college essaywriting.
“No one has offered a vision for a future that a decisive majority of Americans can believe in.”
Because all these talented, smart, goal-oriented strivers in and around politics all aren’t trying and all lack imagination? Or because the US is a sprawling, unprecedentedly-diverse melting pot of wildly heterogeneous jurisdictions whose population keeps growing under an outdated constitution unsuited to modern demands? Is there a similarly-built country less roiled?
Imagine a historian explaining the fall of the Roman empire with “They just needed a better vision for the future!”
Before Democrats can change America, they must first change themselves.
Thanks, Temu Confucius.
The whole thing is this kind of Captain Obvious drivel. Because neither Ben Rhodes nor anyone else has some secret potion unlocking this grand strategy on how a rapidly changing post-internet America can have a consistent majoritarian consensus. Otherwise, we’d be in office ourselves, not deluding ourselves we’ve figured out the magic passcode lost on those who’ve cobbled together fragile coalitions and won sometimes.
Ten years of “ThEy dOn’T liKe mE” navel gazing is enough. Masochistic self-flagelllation does not make one politically popular,it’s cringe. Has it ever occurred to Dems disaffected men live vicariously through Trump’s refusal to constantly apologize?
Nobody needs another decade of the Dems’ self-indulgent, dead horse branding lamentations. Not everybody is going to like us. The focus should be on #1 winning elections, and #2 enacting a liberal agenda to improve Americans’ quality of life, including big structural changes (tax code, SCOTUS reform, etc).
In 2026, winning = leaning into anti-Trumpism, sorry for the Substack Bros bored of it. If the 2028 formula is still Trump bashing, Dems should do that. If it’s other things, then do those. Just win.
Works out okay for Republicans, till their policies inevitably fail.
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Good post today on Krugman’s substack regarding Trump’s plan to import 300,000 tons of ground beef. Turns out it’s Brazilian beef that was turned down by the EU because it didn’t meet European antibiotic standards. The “Beef Baron” is a big contributor to Trump and the details for import were worked out behind closed doors. Like The Krug said at the end, “Okay, that was hard work (recording this). And I’m kind of hungry. So I think I’m going to have a piece of hamburger with some iceberg lettuce.”
Actually, maybe not.
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Link to Krugman’s piece (there is a transcript for the video).
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Triggered by another thread: I got some good advice early on in my life that has proved instrumental to my peace of mind 40 years later:
1) Never borrow money for anything other than a house and a modest car. Pay cash for everything else. If you can’t pay cash, save up until you can
2) (See #1) Pay your credit or charge card in full every month
3) Decide on a meaningful chunk of your salary to put away every month and then live life as if that chunk didn’t exist. Don’t ever spend it, borrow against it or use it for any other purpose. It’s gone.And a bonus piece of accidental wisdom from a friend who had a seat on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade: I spent a long night at various bars and music venues trying to get him to explain how he made money trading commodities, and finally in the wee morning hours I was exasperated said that every time he made money, one of the other traders lost that same amount, and vice versa. Yet they all seemed to be making a good living off what appeared to me to be a zero sum game. “Oh”, he said, “I talk about getting one up on those guys because it’s fun, and they feel the same way about getting one up on me. But that’s not where we make our real money from. We make it from idiots in the general public who’ve read a book and now think they can beat us. They can’t.”
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The animated show South Park will now be called South America.
“Inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google, we are changing the name of South Park to SOUTH AMERICA,” creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker said in a statement. “We especially want to thank our parent company Paramount – a Skydance Capitulation.”
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In honor of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Trump confabulated a tale of him being in a building about to fall down on 9/11 today, complete with firemen rescuing him. To tell such a tale, one so easily disproved, for a man in his position raises real questions about the condition of his brain…and the proximity of a big red button to it.
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HA. Missouri is in an even bigger pickle. The Supreme Court will not hear an appeal to the Missouri Court’s ruling that the state cannot use the new redistricting map for the November elections.
But, since they went ahead and used the new map for the primary in August…who are the actual candidates?
FAFO. They never should have redrawn the maps mid-cycle.
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