Outside the Beltway

Outside the Beltway

TuesTabs

Steven L. Taylor
9

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9 responses to “TuesTabs”

  1. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    From the NRA cat killer story:

    The details of the case, described in local media reports at the time, are gruesome. The house cat was captured, its paws were cut off, and was then strung up and set on fire. The killing, which occurred in December 1979, was allegedly prompted by anger that the cat was not using its litterbox.

    My god that poor cat. And if a cat isn’t using the litter box it’s usually a human’s fault. A human didn’t clean the box frequently enough, or the cat had a medical problem and a human didn’t take it to the veterinarian. How about we cut off your hands and feet, motherfucker?

    5
  2. Jen Avatar
    Jen

    @Mikey: JFC, that is f*%king horrific. I wasn’t going to click the link because I’m super sensitive to animal abuse stories. I’m going to have nightmares. That poor, poor cat.

    1
  3. Mikey Avatar
    Mikey

    @Jen: I’m sorry, Jen. It was thoughtless of me to post that without thinking how it might affect someone else who read it.

    2
  4. reid Avatar
    reid

    I read that Trump is gaining in the polls. Apparently, his victory would be assured if he were to collapse and soil himself while giving “heil, Hitler” salutes and screaming the n-word.

    *shakes his head at America, or hopefully just the pollsters*

    4
  5. Gavin Avatar
    Gavin

    A Republican leader enjoys killing pets?
    I am informed by the NYT that both sides just have to be equal, therefore this cannot be true, ipso facto we must elect a Republican.

    3
  6. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    @reid: The reliability of polls and of the pundits that read them and proclaim things is probably as low as it has ever been in my lifetime. I would not get too caught up in that stuff.

    In addition, demoralizing Democrats is part of the Republican game plan, and has been for a long time. So is lying, and spending lots of money that isn’t “campaign” money. “Flood the zone with shit” is an articulated strategy of the current gang.

    And then, this is what denial looks like at scale. So many of the MAGAs are just in denial about how bad their candidate is. That’s an observation, not a prediction. I don’t know what the future holds, but there are reasons to hope and keep faith.

    I’m not saying

    1
  7. Lounsbury Avatar
    Lounsbury

    @Jay L Gischer: No, the reliability is not the lowest in your lifetime
    Rather the tightness of election margins in the USA and the specifci geographic peculiarities of USA presidential voting are making very visible the reality that polling is a probabilistic presentation of information and that with margins within error bars, suddenly this is painfully visible (while since people are generally fundamentally innumerate in probabilistic analysis (see also weather forecasting) means that they misprocess the information that probability cone that polls and error margins give).

    @reid: Polling averages are showing a stable variation – the only thing you can conclude is the election is in the key Swing States on a knife-edge and that any small variations – of which entirely random and unforeseable ones (of which weather or other factors utterly outside of human control) – can turn your results from Orange Cretin to Save-the-Day and vice versa.

    The only choice you have is continue to support all things necessary to (a) eat at Trump margins in Swing States and (b) ensure maximum core as well as swayable marginals turn out for your side.

    I am hoping that Madame Harris has the ground game for the final conversions and the slow acid bath on Trump (bumbling, doubts on mental acuity to be spread -sans sanewashing as aptly put).

    The only thing in control is that so ground game away.

    2
  8. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    @Lounsbury: Well, I have never seen a bunch of partisan-affiliated polling operations join the fray with the apparent purpose of muddying aggregate polling numbers before in my life? Or do you think that’s business as usual as well?

    We could have more accurate polls. Campaigns almost certainly *do* have more accurate polls, which they don’t share. And we don’t have more accurate polls, even though they would be very, very helpful, because the race is so close, as you say.

    So, the (public) polls are the least useful of any polls available in my lifetime. Does that work better for you?

    1
  9. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @Jay L Gischer: I think he’s trying to say that past polls were bobo, urban uni, cheerleader polls that you wouldn’t have considered partisan.

    Whenever you’re interpreting him, assume he’s being insulting for his own entertainment.

    3

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