Yet another grim milestone.
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I haven’t posted one of these in a while since the numbers are baked into the more analytical pieces. But the raw numbers, as tracked by Worldometers, are staggering in and of themselves.
The press has been talking awhile about a “second wave.” But the first one never crested. And, indeed, the disease is spreading far faster than ever:
Perhaps more depressing, the daily deaths are now hitting levels not seen in two months:
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Even though “It is what it is” is a phrase that I have used on more than one occasion when having a spirited discussion with someone face to face or on-line, this phrase should be hung around Trump’s neck like deplorables was around Clinton’s.
We should be relentless about chiding Trump for saying that.
But it’s no worse than the flu:
“While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”
@Lynn: I know you’re being tongue-in-cheek, but even those flu estimates are estimated and likely inflated.
When I read that Scientific American piece, I started asking pretty much everyone I know/was talking to or interacting with if they had ever known anyone who had died from the flu. None of them had, but quite a few knew people who had died from covid.
It’s interesting to me that the “it’s no worse than the flu” is operating under multiple false premises–one of which is that the flu death estimates are likely very inflated.
@Jen:
I started asking pretty much everyone I know/was talking to or interacting with if they had ever known anyone who had died from the flu. None of them had, but quite a few knew people who had died from covid.
The flu rarely kills young or healthy people, or even only moderately ill people. So, the people you are asking are going to remember that Grandpa Chuck had heart problems, and cancer and was struggling with his diabetes and he went into the hospital when he got sick with something, and died from stuff. Probably one of those things he had. And often the flu leads to pneumonia in that case, and pneumonia might be remembered, but it was kind of a mercy given the heart and cancer and losing fight with diabetes. So, Grandpa Chuck died of pneumonia.
It’s the pre-existing condition argument, yes, but limited to a much more severe set of conditions.
It’s not Grandpa Chuck was a pretty healthy 60 year old, and now he’s dead.
I wouldn’t trust the anecdotes without a lot of follow up questions. Also no one was really focusing on flu deaths the way we are focusing on Covid deaths, so the Covid deaths resonate more.
Case growth curve has flattened and deaths have leveled off. We delayed the impact on hospitals while correcting the deficiencies of the career bureaucrats in replenishing the strategic stockpiles and shifted production lines from China to the US. The medical system was not overrun. We have good therapeutics and clinical processes to severely limit deaths from COVID-19.
Sorry to break it to you, everyone is going to get the coronavirus. Interestingly, poorer countries that took their shot with hydroxychlorquine/zinc are fairing better than our career technocrats who are restricting the use of cheap therapeutics based on their political biases.
@JKB:
deaths have leveled off.
Over 1,200 deaths yesterday. Leveled off from what? And the flu season hasn’t started. And schools haven’t started.
@JKB:
Sorry to break it to you, everyone is going to get the coronavirus
Not in Europe. Or New Zealand. Or South Korea.
Ravaging the population with a novel virus with what appears to be long-lasting health consequences even for the mild cases is a choice. It’s not a requirement by a long shot.
Interestingly, poorer countries that took their shot with hydroxychlorquine/zinc are fairing better than our career technocrats who are restricting the use of cheap therapeutics based on their political biases.
How do you think this conspiracy works? Hydroxychloroquine has been shown in many studies to be ineffective, and has some significant risks. Are all those studies false?
Why aren’t there whistleblowers at the CDC or in research universities and hospitals leaking out the real data? Not anecdotes, but data.
@JKB: many poorer countries have had far fewer cases. Fewer cases = fewer deaths. They also tend to have much younger populations on average, and we know that younger people are less likely to die from Covid (although not necessarily less likely to get sick, nor less likely to develop lasting health issues from it).
@Monala: @Daryl and his brother Darryl: Day to day new cases fluctuates, but the overall trend is upward. The trend of new cases never actually dropped.
The death rate did fall significantly in early June, but has been creeping up again since late June. We haven’t yet reached the number of deaths highs of mid-April, in part because doctors know more about how to treat the disease, and in part because the population getting sick now is on average younger.
I wouldn’t trust the anecdotes without a lot of follow up questions.
Ha–I should have included the sentence, “like the doctor in the article…”
Of course, anecdotes are not data. Still, it’s interesting that a doctor has never seen this–and, even with myriad older/now dead relatives, neither I nor anyone I have asked has *ever* known anyone to have flu as a cause of death. Pneumonia after decades of Alzheimer’s? Yes. But never “hospitalized for flu and then died.” Not one. That definitely made me think.
Novel viruses killed most native Americans when Europeans knocked on the door back when.
I dont have any friends, family or church members who died from flu like I have with Covid. I have been in practice for a long time and have seen and cared for a number of flu pts who have died. Will never forget the 15 y/o who had a strep superinfection. Playing baseball on a Tuesday and dead on a Thursday. Mom was one of our nurses. That said, we never had our ICUs full with flu pts like we had with Covid when it was bad.
Steve
@steve:
I am not an expert, but reporting from the before times strongly implied the yearly winter flu cycle struck indiscriminately but killed the old with multiple health compromises or already immunosuppressed folks.
Is that fair? Please correct me.
@Jen:
My maternal great grandfather died of the 1918 flu.
My husband’s mom died of the 1957 flu.
That’s it, and both of those people died from unusually deadly strains, not just ordinary flu.
@Monala: Plus, just travel patterns. There are a lot of middle-class and wealthier people flying back-and-forth from New York and New Jersey to Rome and Milan, not a lot of them flying back-and-forth to Kisangani. New York and New Jersey got hit so hard because Italy got hit so hard and there are so many Italians there. Not a lot of Guidos in North Platte Nebraska.
How do you think this conspiracy works? Hydroxychloroquine has been shown in many studies to be ineffective, and has some significant risks. Are all those studies false?
JKB’s nonsense is also considered a proven fact over at the big creationist blog. It works like every other conspiracy. Conspiracy theorists never believe in just one conspiracy they always have several, because the illogic is the same in all cases. There’s this revolutionary thing that could change everything. It’s being suppressed by the powers that be. The global scientific community is lying to you. They’re doing it to make money. They’re all in on it. Etc.
The gold standard studies that have been done have shown that Hydrochloroquine doesn’t work. So they invent excuses. It wasn’t given early enough. It wasn’t given with extra zinc. They never just say oh we were wrong because it’s not about science and reasoning, it’s just about the same illogic of all conspiracy theories. People who go in for conspiracy theories are usually intellectually insecure because believing that you have the secret information and everybody else is a dupe makes you feel like finally, *you’re* the smart one.
The observation that conspiracy theorists always wind up believing in several conspiracies because the stupid illogic is all the same is called Crank Magnetism
Typically when you find someone who is a conspiracy theorist they have a certain set of traits:
Social isolation
Insecurity
Need to feel unique
Powerlessness
Alienation
@JKB:
Sorry to break it to you, everyone is going to get the coronavirus. Interestingly, poorer countries that took their shot with hydroxychlorquine/zinc are fairing better than our career technocrats who are restricting the use of cheap therapeutics based on their political biases.
Citation? (because I think this assertion is pure, unadulterated bullshit for which I have no patience).
@Steven L. Taylor:
@JKB:
He stated it as if it were a true fact. Dominance attempt.
Why do these folks hyper focus on hydoxychloroquine? And now zinc?
This is not a PR battle. Viruses do not care. They use new cells to replicate. We cannot negotiate with a virus. They cannot be bullied into submission or resignation. Saying “The Hydroxy” a billion times does not magically make it perform better as a therapeutic.
Prophylaxis, quarantine, and if we luck out a proper vaccination. Fingers crossed.
JFC, crap like JKB peddles just pisses me off.
My maternal great grandfather died of the 1918 flu.
My maternal grandfather’s first family all died of the 1918 flu. Wife, three kids. He remarried (disastrously) on the rebound, divorced, then married my grandmother, with whom he had 7 more kids. My mother was the youngest of those.
de stijl- That is a pretty fair summation. The flu also hits the very young. Link shows, if you scroll down, hospitalization rates for young vs older kids. So I think of it as killings the very old and very young. I need to recheck current numbers but hospitalization rates were running about 2 times higher for Covid vs flu. It is a much different disease.
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/05/05/flu-update
Steve
