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Whose Predictions Were Wrong?

Like Guy Fawkes, I got burnt!

Matt Bernius
21

Comments

This will be a quick one for a few reasons. On a logistical side, I have a hectic day ahead of me which won’t allow me the time I need to write. More importantly, other than acknowledging facts (i.e., Trump won the EV and is projected to win the PV), I don’t think we have enough understanding of all the facts (see above) and counterfactuals (Trump-like candidates losing statewide races in states Trump won) to make any informed analysis. I urge you to keep that in mind, as a LOT of hot takes are already flying.

I do want to comment on two of the predictions from yesterday and share where I am on them:

[Wrongish] Prediction #2: Like 2020, we won’t know the winner until midday tomorrow at the earliest.

FWIW, I was surprised that the race was called earlier this morning. Regardless of how you feel about the results, it’s good to see that election counting changes made in several States helped make this possible.

[Wrong] Prediction #4a: If Trump wins, he will still lose the Popular Vote
Again, at this point, I don’t think momentum is on Trump’s side. I am cautiously optimistic that things are going to break for Harris. If Trump squeaks out a victory, it will be based on the Electoral College and not the popular vote. And given that he hasn’t won the popular vote yet, I feel this is my safest prediction.

First, note to self: Don’t ever gild the lily again, especially by calling things “my safest prediction.”

Second, while I am deeply disappointed that Trump won, I think this is the best way he could have won. As someone who doesn’t believe in the Electoral College system, having a President who won the popular vote and the Electoral College is the best scenario from a small “d” democracy standpoint. I also recognize the cold comfort to many when it also means that a slim majority of the people who voted felt that Donald Trump was the better choice.

Beyond all that, I have no more to say beyond repeating that I don’t think we have enough data yet to make any big pronouncements. Anyone claiming to have an answer or “know why” Trump won or Harris lost is trying to sell you something–doubly so if they point to one particular factor (even “it’s the economy stupid”).

Oh, and to once again repeat: I was wrong. At least one thing I have to look forward to is the work of trying to think through why that was.

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21 responses to “Whose Predictions Were Wrong?”

  1. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    Looking forward to whatever musings you wish to share with us.

    1
  2. Paul L. Avatar
    Paul L.

    I don’t believe Kamala got 20 million less votes than Biden.

    1
  3. Slugger Avatar
    Slugger

    In 2015 my brother in law told me that Trump had a strong lead in Illinois. I told him that I doubted it because Trump is just some NYC real estate huckster with a boring TV show. I was wrong. I didn’t get it and still don’t. Vance obviously did get it. If I were a 30 year old with political ambitions, I’d study Vance’s reversal on Trump. I’m not saying that in some cosmic moral sense that Vance was right. However, we don’t live in some abstract debate society world. Stop gnashing your teeth; study what works on this planet.

    4
  4. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    I was wrong, too. On a larger scale. This is a very strange result, and I don’t understand it a bit. Maybe I never will.

    @Paul L.: We agree on something! It doesn’t make sense, does it?

    1
  5. Gustopher Avatar
    Gustopher

    FWIW, I was surprised that the race was called earlier this morning. Regardless of how you feel about the results, it’s good to see that election counting changes made in several States helped make this possible.

    Given the number of states that now have laws prohibiting counting mail in ballots until after the polls close, including Pennsylvania, I am very surprised we got results last night.

    I really want to know how Pennsylvania managed that. Not that I am suspicious, I just think there is an amazing story there.

    2
  6. Modulo Myself Avatar
    Modulo Myself

    Seems like the biggest story is Harris and her campaign losing 15 million votes from Biden’s total in 2020. They didn’t seem to go to Trump, because he lost votes from 2020. (Maybe he makes it back as the counting continues.)

    The answer people don’t want to hear was that 2020 was an exceptional moment. The shared sacrifices of Covid plus the summer of George Floyd was a positive for the Democrats. Was the spirit sustainable? Absolutely not. Regardless, the Democrats spent 2021 to 2024 talking incessantly about how terrible 2020 and what came out of it was and then taking gleeful shots at anybody who had a different take. It was a bitter, moronic, and utterly deskilled disaster, which played perfectly into the hands of Trump, who apologizes for nothing.

    1
  7. Michael Reynolds Avatar
    Michael Reynolds

    My prediction a few weeks ago is sadly correct. I suggested Trump could even win the popular vote.

    Bad things are going to happen in this country and in the rest of the world. The Senate will do away with filibuster as soon as they are seated and be a rubber stamp. Democrats will have no power outside of the states, and will be diminished even there.

    Sometimes Sauron wins.

    3
  8. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    My one prediction (that the undecided voters were almost all Trump voters who were just to ashamed to admit it and thus pretend to be undecided so they can externalize the blame for their actions) appears to have been correct.

    The “undecided” vote seems to have all broken for Trump, and I don’t believe this was actually a decision that occurred late in the process.

    Which just goes to underline that trying to persuade moderates is a faulty strategy, because there are no moderates left to persuade. Republicans don’t bother trying to persuade moderates, they focus on pumping up their base.

    Future Democratic campaigns need to focus on that.

    8
  9. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    @Gustopher:

    I really want to know how Pennsylvania managed that. Not that I am suspicious, I just think there is an amazing story there.

    Two things:

    1.) Most people went back to in person voting, so there’s simply a lot less mail ballots to count than in 2020.

    2.) Most places used to count all of the in-person vote and then only started on the mail ballots after that was completely done. Now they start working on mail ballots as soon as the polls open at 7am and give that equal focus throughout the whole counting process. This both speeds up the counting and assures that the interim results better reflect the final tally.

    4
  10. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @Stormy Dragon: Moreover, the only thing you can persuade moderates to do is less.

    3
  11. Matt Bernius Avatar
    Matt Bernius

    @Stormy Dragon
    I think that’s correct and I am waiting for confirmation on that.

  12. James Joyner Avatar
    James Joyner

    @Paul L.: @Jay L Gischer: There are likely millions more votes to be counted.

    @Stormy Dragon: I think you’re right that a lot, if not most, “undecided” voters were people who preferred Trump’s message and just didn’t like Trump. There was a yearning for Harris do somehow win them over but I don’t think they were really winnable, at least not with a traditional Democratic message. But I do think Harris’ campaign was mostly about energizing the base rather than appealing to largely non-existent persuadables.

    1
  13. Lounsbury Avatar
    Lounsbury

    @Stormy Dragon: Ah the Corbyn strategy. That will work so very well.

    Of course the best thing about this for the ideological is More of What I want is the solution and not any examnination of loss of labouring class vote share as merely a natural phenonena – a divine conversion even.

    2
  14. Eusebio Avatar
    Eusebio

    @James Joyner:

    There are likely millions more votes to be counted.

    For comparison, NPR reported this early Wednesday morning, Nov 4, 2020:

    As of 4:15 a.m. ET, Biden was ahead of Trump 67.1 million to 65.2 million.

    As we know, the final count in 2020 was 81.3 million for Biden and 74.2 million for Trump. This was 23.2 million more total votes than the early Wednesday morning count, and a 5.2 million increase in Biden’s popular vote lead that was ultimately 7.1 million votes.

    1
  15. Matt Bernius Avatar
    Matt Bernius

    @James Joyner:

    @Paul L.: @Jay L Gischer: There are likely millions more votes to be counted.

    So this. This is why we all should resist the temptation, now that things are done and need to be recorded, to make any hot takes (or listen to any, for that matter). There will be plenty of time to do a real examination once the dust has settled (it’s why I’m not touching my prediction about “the great realignment not being ‘all that great’” yet).

    1
  16. James Joyner Avatar
    James Joyner

    @Eusebio: @Matt Bernius: Yup. Looking back yesterday to my 2016 post-mortem, I noted that, while it was true that Clinton won the popular vote, it was only by a slim margin of 200,000. She ultimately won by some 3 million.

  17. al Ameda Avatar
    al Ameda

    Some points:

    (1) Polling … Clearly, there were and are many people who did not want to tell pollsters that they intended to vote for Trump
    (2) Trump has won only when his opponent was a woman
    (3) and … as Carlos Lozada of the opinined in the New York Times today:
    Stop Pretending Trump is not Who We Are.

    We went through this before (2017-2020), we went through a campaign where Trump was purposely unhinged and as crude and rude as he wanted to be, and yet ‘We’ have decided to take another swim in the cesspool. There is no abiding and enduring ‘Wisdom of The People.’
    It comes and goes, and it’s gone for the time being.

    3
  18. Stormy Dragon Avatar
    Stormy Dragon

    @Lounsbury:

    As a member of one of the primary groups you want to throw under the bus to demonstrate your attractiveness to the “labouring class”, I’m not sure your Starmer strategy ends up any better for me.

    4
  19. Jen Avatar
    Jen

    There are a lot of men, and a fair number of women, who don’t believe a woman can be an effective leader. Are there female CEOs? Yes, but not many.

    I’ve long felt that in order for the US to have a female president, it would have to be a VP-becomes-President situation.

    I don’t even think some people realize WHAT their objection to Harris is… it’s that “eh, I just can’t see HER in charge”-type vibe. Any woman who has lost out on a job to a less-qualified man knows this. Any woman in the tech industry who didn’t get a job interview until she de-gendered her resume knows this.

    I’m not surprised. I’m disappointed, but I’m not surprised.

    7
  20. al Ameda Avatar
    al Ameda

    @Jen:

    I don’t even think some people realize WHAT their objection to Harris is… it’s that “eh, I just can’t see HER in charge”-type vibe. Any woman who has lost out on a job to a less-qualified man knows this. Any woman in the tech industry who didn’t get a job interview until she de-gendered her resume knows this.

    I’m not surprised. I’m disappointed, but I’m not surprised.

    I’m right there with you on this.
    In the great majority of my work career (operational finance, contracts grants and organizations budget planning, in mid and senior management) my direct and indirect managers were women. I can think of three in particular who were among the brightest and most capable people I encountered in my career, and would be successful in any endeavor they chose.

    4
  21. Gavin Avatar
    Gavin

    Whatever the future Democratic leadership “strategy” is, let’s immediately sound the death knell for Chuckles Schumer’s wildly implausible “Give up all working-class votes over the last 20 years as a trade for suburban affluent votes.” Announcer voice: As a result, neither group voted for Democrats.
    The thing that both saddens and angers me is that the current Democratic misleadership class still thinks they did nothing wrong after losing 2 of the last 3 cycles.
    One, concrete material benefits have been ignored. In the last 2 years, Democrats:
    ended the expansion of the child tax credit, Medicaid, and unemployment insurance
    let the Fed raise interest rates on everything
    did nothing while companies talked endlessly on earnings calls how proud they were of raising prices far beyond supply-chain-based inflation [aka $krewing workers]
    ended SNAP full benefit allotment
    ended broadband assistance
    Two, abortion rights beat Kamala in 100% of states they were on the ballot. Progressive policies win… but not unelectable Democrats.
    Three, perhaps all the endorsements from every National Security Advisor were a negative? You know, the establishment.
    Consider the results of Missouri: Minimum wage mandatory increase into law, Abortion constitutionally protected, Paid sick leave enshrined into law….. Trump and Hawley elected.

    How many times do these out-of-touch Democratic “consultants” get a pass for failing? I’ll take 10% of their money to produce the same outcome.

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