Via Politico: Inside the increasingly ugly GOP fight over a Texas runoff.
Rep. Tony Gonzales’ centrist voting record and willingness to excoriate his colleagues have earned him a fair share of GOP enemies. Party leaders are still dreading what happens if he loses a runoff this month.
The West Texan is battling for his political life after being forced into a primary runoff with a gun-rights YouTube star backed by members like Rep. Matt Gaetz(R-Fla.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.). Brandon Herrera, known as “The AK Guy” after his affection for assault rifles, would likely align with rabble-rousers who have repeatedly challenged GOP leadership.
If Gonzales loses the runoff at the end of the month, Republican leaders would face two worse alternatives. They either risk losing the seat entirely thanks to an unpalatable Republican nominee — who has mocked the Holocaust, veterans’ suicides and Barron Trump — or they hold it but welcome into their ranks someone who is likely to further inflame internal caucus divisions.
From a purely partisan point of view, the party clearly needs the seat, even if the fringe of the party grows. Its current margin is as small as it gets and a number of court redistricting battles have gone the Democrats’ way (for example, they are likely to pick up a seat in Alabama, just to name one state and there are several others).
While some may wish to argue that the GOP is just fringe all the way down, I would note that without even getting into that, Gonzalez is the strategically better choice for the party to retain the seat. While post-redistricting the district became slightly more Republican, it is still competitive enough that a fringe Republican could lose the seat. This is Will Hurd’s old district, which was often quite competitive in the past. Gonzalez did quite well in 2020 and especially in 2022 (post redistricting).
Gonzales stunned many in his own party when he captured a sprawling rural Texas district in 2020 that many believed would be lost. But his votes in support of gun control and same-sex marriage earned him a host of enemies and a censure from the Texas GOP. And he’s not winning any popularity contests in Washington, either, after repeated public criticism of his colleagues.
Meanwhile, even lawmakers who don’t have a personal problem with Gonzales question why he’s held on to his centrist persona as his district grew redder during 2021 redistricting.
The smart play would be to build on his incumbency advantage and his clear ability to win the district. But those advantages would likely erode, and maybe even disappear if Herrera is nominated. At a minimum, his nomination would change Democratic priorities for the district.
Democrats would face a tall task in flipping the seat — Gonzales won by 17 points in 2022 — and it is not currently on their target list. The Democratic nominee, Santos Limon, is a civil engineer and small business owner with lackluster fundraising; he reported raising less than $100,000 as of mid-February. But, privately, some Democratic strategists agree a Herrera nomination would present a unique opportunity.
This is a clear example of where the primary electorate is significantly out of line with the overall district and so the primary process itself leads to a poor strategic choice by the party (as a collective actor).
Another way that primaries shape behavior is that even though Gonzalez voted in favor of the January 6 commission, he recently endorsed Trump. This is clearly a move related to his primary challenge. Gonzalez is lucky that his opponent has made fun of Barron Trump, which may have forestalled a Trump endorsement.
Side note: Brandon “The AK Guy” Herrera would be running in a district that includes Uvalde, TX if he won the nomination.
The run-off will take place on May 28th.
