For most of the history of top-level college football there was no national championship. Teams who had good seasons were rewarded with a postseason bowl game, and the Associated Press polled sportwriters and United Press International polled coaches to see which teams they thought deserved to be ranked highest. For the last twenty-five years, there has been some sort of playoff system. From 1998-2013, the Bowl Championship Series pitted the top two ranked teams in the country in a bowl game at the end of the season, ensuring that one team could claim a championship. Since 2014, a College Playoff Selection Committee has chosen a four-team field to play for a title. Starting next season, the committee will choose a 12-team field.
Alas, the 12-team playoff comes one year too late. While there has always been some debate about which team deserved the four spot, there has been nothing like this season. Week after week, the top-ranked teams kept on winning, with the only losses coming when two highly-ranked teams played each other. Almost every other year of the Playoff, one or more of the so-called Power Five conferences produced a champion with two or more losses; not so this year.
Michigan won the Big Ten, going undefeated against a lackluster schedule. But the Big Ten is considered one of the two best conferences in the sport and wins over Ohio State and Penn State prove them a worthy contender.
Washington won the Pac-12, in what will be the last year of that conference as we know it, going undefeated against a surprisingly difficult schedule. A league that has long been considered the weakest of the Power Five went out with a very good year.
Florida State won a very down Atlantic Coast Conference, going undefeated despite playing its last game and a half without its superstar quarterback and playing the championship game with a freshman making his first start at the position. The ACC was down this year, but they did beat Louisiana State early in the year—alas, with said superstar quarterback.
Texas won the Big 12 in their last year in the conference. The conference has missed several of the playoffs, either because its champion had multiple losses and/or because the conference was considered relatively weak. Texas’ only loss came to Oklahoma, who was ranked 12th in the Committee’s penultimate poll, and they beat Alabama, ranked 8th in the penultimate poll, in week 2 of the season on the road.
Alabama rallied from that early upset to roll off eleven straight wins, including an upset of Georgia in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game. Georgia was ranked #1 in that penultimate poll and was coming off back-to-back national championships, having won 29 straight games since their loss to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship Game.
Georgia lost that game by a mere 3 points and would almost surely be favored in a neutral-site matchup with either Washington or FSU.
Ohio State lost by 6 points, on the road, to Michigan in their season-ending rivalry game. They were ranked #2 in the poll before that and had been #1 before being surpassed by Georgia. They, too, would almost surely be favored to beat Washington and, certainly, FSU.
That’s seven deserving teams. There are only four spots.
The Committee’s remit, ostensibly, is to choose the Four Best Teams, not the Four Most Deserving Teams. They have been wildly inconsistent in previous iterations.
Here’s how I’d rank them.
Joyner’s Seven Best
This is how I’d rank each team’s chance of winning two games if selected. (For Florida State, I’m assuming their backup quarterback will have long since cleared concussion protocol and be able to play.)
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Florida State
Joyner’s Seven Most Deserving
Here, I’ve simply ranked the undefeated conference champions, followed by the one-loss conference champions, followed by one-loss non-champions, with my “best” teams ranked within those categories unless there’s a head-to-head tiebreaker:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Florida State
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
Joyner’s Best Deserving Teams
This is how I’d rank the teams were I selecting the Playoff. Granted, I’m an Alabama alumnus and fan. But I think the games have to matter, so I put Texas ahead of Alabama. On the other hand, I left out FSU because, however cruel it is to leave out a team than won 13 games because an injury took out their best player, Alabama could give Michigan a good game and, indeed, win the whole thing. I don’t think anyone outside Tallahassee thinks FSU could do either.
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida State
- Ohio State
Joyner’s Prediction of the CFP Selection
Here’s what I think the Committee will actually do:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Florida State
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
Even though this makes for bad television, I just can’t imagine they’ll leave out an undefeated Power 5 team. At the same time, it would be absolute malpractice to rank Florida State above Texas, giving top-seeded Michigan a first-round game they very much could lose while essentially giving Washington a first-round bye.
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Here, I’ll round up predictions from sportswriters.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who covers the CFB Committee as her main beat, agrees with my preferred rankings. She only goes through 6, but presumably Ohio State is 7th:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida State
Stewart Mandel, editor-in-chief of college football coverage for The Athletic, goes through a long process based on mocks he’s done with the Committee over the years. It’s paywalled and too long to excerpt here, but he comes down with this:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Texas
- Florida State
One reason I didn’t excerpt his longish explanation is that he then contradicts it, saying that he thinks they’ll actually put FSU in at 4, making his prediction:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Alabama
- Florida State
Even as an Alabama fan, I would be angry if we got in as the 3 seed and Texas, who beat us at home by 10, got left out. But I honestly don’t think there’s any question Michigan, Washington, and Texas get in. I think the competition is for the 4 seed.
Andy Staples, On3:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
On3’s Jesse Simington:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Georgia
USA Today‘s Paul Myerberg:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oregon
Dallas Morning News‘ Kevin Sherrington:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
Action Network’s Brett McMurphy:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
ESPN’s Dan Mullen (former Mississippi State and Florida head coach):
- Michigan
- Washington
- Florida State
- Texas
ESPN’s Joey Galloway:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
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I’m taking the wife out to lunch. I’ll update with the Committee’s final rankings later.
UPDATE: The Committee ultimately followed my “Best Deserving Teams” rankings through the four that mattered. ESPN:
Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama have been selected by the College Football Playoff committee to vie for the national championship, leaving out Florida State — the first time in CFP history an undefeated Power 5 champion failed to finish in the top four.
The Seminoles finished fifth despite going 13-0 and winning an ACC championship on Saturday night, down to its third-string quarterback after injuries to starter Jordan Travis (leg) and backup Tate Rodemaker (concussion). Defending national champion Georgia (No. 6), another team with a compelling argument for playoff inclusion, is also on the outside looking in.
The Wolverines and Huskies as undefeated conference champions were considered virtual shoo-ins to make the CFP. Michigan is in the playoff for the third straight year. Washington, on the other hand, has been in the CFP only once before, losing in the semifinals in the 2016 season.
The path to the playoff was a bit murkier for Texas and Alabama.
Texas is back in the running for the national championship after booking its first trip to the playoff. Led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns went 12-1 and won the Big 12 championship in their first appearance in the conference title game since its return in 2017. Texas’ lone loss came at the hands of Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game. Both schools will head to the SEC after this season, but the Longhorns already got an SEC boost this year. Texas notched perhaps the biggest win of the college football season by going on the road in September and beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama proved that one big win can sometimes make up for one early loss. The Crimson Tide are in the playoff a day after ending Georgia’s 29-game, 728-day winning streak with a 27-24 victory in the SEC championship game. Nick Saban’s squad faced challenges atypical for Alabama, losing at home to Texas in the second game of the season and otherwise scuffling through the early part of the schedule. Part of the issue was uncertainty at quarterback. Jalen Milroe started and finished the season as the team’s top QB, but both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner were given chances to take control of the position in Tommy Rees’ first year as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. Bama will now have a chance to win its fourth College Football Playoff title in the final year of the four-team format.
Its win over Georgia shifted the dynamic on Saturday. At that point, it felt like an inevitability that the SEC champion would make it into the playoff, because of the league’s dominance in the CFP since its inception — and the near-nonstop lobbying both Alabama coach Nick Saban and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey have done over the past week to support Alabama’s case.
But the real dynamic shift happened on Nov. 18, when Florida State lost Travis for the season with a leg injury. The Seminoles were placed under greater scrutiny to see how they would respond without their team leader and ACC Player of the Year.
While I’m happy with the result as both an Alabama fan and a fan of good college football matchups, this is a bitter pill to swallow for Florida State fans. The last time an undefeated Power 5 team got left out was in 2004, when USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all went undefeated (along with Utah of the Mountain West and Boise State of the Western Athletic Conference) and Auburn had to settle for a matchup with Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.
While I’m also happy that Alabama was able to end Georgia’s run, it’s also tough for their fans that a three-point loss in a championship game after 29 straight wins keeps them out of contention to defend their title.
Regardless, the Committee agreed with my logic (and that of most of the prognosticators listed above:
Corrigan said the decision for the No. 4 spot was between Alabama and Florida State. Alabama won out despite Florida State finishing with a higher strength of record (No. 3) than Alabama (No. 4). The Seminoles also went 2-0 against SEC teams this season — including an emphatic victory over LSU to open the season. But ultimately, all that mattered to the committee was the injury to Travis.
Alabama’s win Saturday ended Georgia’s pursuit of a third straight national championship. The Bulldogs had won 29 straight games, but Saturday’s ill-timed loss to Alabama in the SEC title game left Georgia out. As a result, the Bulldogs become the first No. 1 team in the penultimate CFP rankings to fall out of the top four after losing on Championship Weekend.
Michigan will face Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential, while Washington will play Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Both semifinal games will be played on New Year’s Day and aired on ESPN.
But I feel vindicated because of this:
The Wolverines and Longhorns were installed as the early favorites in their respective semifinals by ESPN BET. Michigan opened as 2-point favorites over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Texas opened as a 4-point favorite over Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
Had FSU gotten the 3 or 4 spot as the “most deserving” team, they would likely have been 13-point underdogs.
Milestones:
- Texas’ first appearance in the Playoff
- The first time an undefeated Power 5 team has missed the Playoff
- The first time the #1 team in the penultimate ranking (Georgia) fell out of the Playoff
- The highest a team (Alabama) climbed from the penultimate ranking (#8) to make the Playoff
