Outside the Beltway

Outside the Beltway

Europe ‘Crisis’ Overblown

My latest for The National Interest, arguing that the talk of crisis in Europe is overblown, is up. Naturally, they’ve titled it “Crisis in the EU.”

James Joyner
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My latest for The National Interest, arguing that the talk of crisis in Europe is overblown, is up.   Naturally, they’ve titled it “Crisis in the EU.”

While these essays and others like them point to very real problems with the European project in general and the eurozone in particular, they tend to make at least one of three mistakes: treating the EU as if it were a nation-state, regarding anything less than utopia as a failure, and projecting short-term trends long into the future.

[…]

Regardless of the policy choices made, it’s unfathomable that Germany, France, the United Kingdom and most of the other members of the EU will decide that they would be better off not cooperating with one another in some very intense fashion on economic and security issues. Indeed, it is just inconceivable that any but the most tangential current EU member won’t be part of a free-trade, open-border zone with all the others. The benefits are so large and so engrained in the European culture at this point that abandoning progress would be madness.

Much more at the link.

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4 responses to “Europe ‘Crisis’ Overblown”

  1. Brummagem Joe Avatar
    Brummagem Joe

    Totally overblown. Even the most independant minded of the major members, Britain, is inextricably enmeshed in the EU socially, legally and economically. Some 65% of it’s exports go to the Euro zone versus around 20% to the USA and the entire old white English speaking empire (Canada, Australia etc) combined so when you hear some British politicians pontificating about leaving, treat it with levity it deserves. Even all the hysteria about the demise of Euro is nonsense. Its just bottomed at around 1.21/US dollar but is now back to around 1.27. Well about 8 years ago it was 0.81/US dollar and I don’t remember anyone suggesting the Euro was over then!

  2. James Joyner Avatar
    James Joyner

    Right. I do think it’s possible the Eurozone is too big, including peripheral countries that have insufficiently developed economies. But Eurozone minus Greece is stronger, not weaker.

  3. jack Avatar
    jack

    Even the most independant minded of the major members, Britain, is inextricably enmeshed in the EU socially, legally and economically.

  4. Brummagem Joe Avatar
    Brummagem Joe

    James Joyner says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2010 at 12:58

    The Euro is now back over 1.29. Theoretically I agree about dumping the weaker brethren but the weaker brethren are never going to leave because at bottom having the Euro as your unit of exchange is infinitely preferable to having the drachma. This is why Greece is willing to jump through hoops to stay in. I was totally bemused by all those conservative commentators a few months back finger pointing at the Euro and saying Greece would have been much bettter off devaluing its way out of its problems with their own currency. Any such devaluation would have had to be over 25% which mean your reducing the value of Greek savings and other domestic assets owned by the Greek middle and upper classes by 25+ and thereby enabling the whole Greek welfare feather bed to continue in business as usual. It just confirmed my view that most conservative commentators are economically illiterate and/or not very conservative.

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