Taegan Goddard notes that the two most recent polls on tomorrow’s Democratic primary in South Carolina shows John Edwards surging.
Said pollster John Zogby: “The real movement here is by John Edwards, who is the only one who continues to gain ground in our three-day tracking poll. His increase appears to be coming from African American voters who are slowly making up their minds.”
The State: “Watch John Edwards. With only a day left before Saturday’s S.C. Democratic presidential primary, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina and S.C. native is making a move.”
Indeed, the trend lines show Edwards surging while both Clinton and Obama plummet:
Of course, they also show him a distant third. The chart gives a better indicator here:
Edwards is in third place in all five of the most recent likely voter surveys — and is only within the margin of error of second in two of the five. Chances are pretty good, then, that he finishes third. And the best he can hope for is to edge Clinton for second.
So, let’s say he “shocks the world” by coming in second in a place where people talk like him (he’s from next-door North Carolina, after all) beating out a Yankee senator. Yay for him. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats allocate their South Carolina delegates proportionally. So he’d get a couple more than if he’d finished third. But so what? He’s not going to suddenly become a contender.
He’s light years behind Clinton and Obama for third in the meaningless (delegate-wise) Florida primary, which means he’ll go into Super Duper Tuesday without having won a single contest. He’ll almost certainly finish the day the same way.
Perhaps one could argue that coming in third would hurt Clinton, showing that she’s not very appealing in the South. But we kinda knew that already. And she’ll go on to win Florida, easily, three days later and regain her momentum (albeit without any extra delegates to show for it). Super Tuesday will remain a two-way race between her and Obama.
