Pondering the Plausibility of the Survey That Gave Us the Chart that I Asked Us to Ponder

Or, why I believe the survery results: a play in two acts.

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I was going to respond to Mu Yixiao’s comment about not believing the Cato survey noted in my previous post, but I realized it was going to get long, and as any hard-working blogger knows, you shouldn’t waste content!

I will provide two anecdotes that I may have shared before that make me utterly believe that it is possible that only roughly half of all adults surveyed knew what we were celebrating on July 4, 2026.

Scene One: Separating Those Powers!

One semester, I was teaching American National Government. The second unit of the class focused on the separation of powers, starting with the Congress. I don’t know how many times I said some version of the following: “Legislative power is the power to make the laws, executive power is the power to put the laws into practice, and judicial power is the power to interpret the meaning of the law.”

I would say it over.

And over.

And over again.

I emphasized that these were specific kinds of governing power, absent any issue of where those powers might reside in a government.

So (and I remember this vividly), one day I was passing out the exams, and I said, “Well, if you don’t know the answer to the first question, you might as well leave now.”

Here was the first question (pulled from my files, and not just from memory):

  1. Legislative power is:
    • a. The power to make the laws
    • b. The power to put the laws into practice.
    • c. The power to interpret the meaning of the laws
    • d. All of the above.
    • e. b &c.

I thought I was providing levity to the moment (exam days were always a bit tense). While no one got up and left, it turned out that some of them probably should have. I forget the exact number, but at least a third of the class did not get that question correct.

This was a self-selected audience whose job it was to learn this stuff, and who had had the concept repeated to them, and yet roughly a third of them didn’t know.

Scene Two: That’s Dick Cheney!

In January of 2001, I had the news of Bush innauguration on in my living room. My oldest son, who had just turned four in December, pointed at the TV and said, “Daddy, that’s Dick Cheney.” This is, no doubt, an indictment of how much news I watched at the time.

I thought it would be fun to make the bonus question on the first exam in American National Government a photo of Dick Cheney and ask the students to identify him. I honestly thought that all but a handful would get the bonus and we could all share a laugh about the handful of students who did not know as much as a four-year-old (which, through the prism of time, I now know would have been a jerk move).

The ability to have a laugh was dashed when only about a quarter of the class could identify the new Vice President by seeing a picture of him.

I will confess to an additional jerk move of telling one of my advanced polisci classes the above anecdote, only to have one of those students regale his girlfriend with the tale of how funny it was that so many of the ANG got it wrong, only to realize that she was one of the ones who got it wrong.

At any rate, do I believe it is possible that half of Americans are unclear on what exactly happened 250 years ago? Yes, yes, I am.

(Although I will readily allow my anecdotes do not validate Cato’s survey one way or the other.)

18 responses to “Pondering the Plausibility of the Survey That Gave Us the Chart that I Asked Us to Ponder”

  1. To be clear, I have no doubt CATO reported their results accurately, nor that the electorate are, to use my own oft-repeated phrase, a box of rocks. But the questions asked, and the multiple-choice answers provided, seem slanted.

    Example: “Affordability”, generally regarded as the electorates current primary concern, shows up nowhere. “Cost” shows up once. “Corruption” shows up prominently. (I admit that puzzles me. Does CATO really want to encourage Dems to focus on corruption?)

    1. To me, the multiple-choice nature of the question I highlighted makes the results even worse. I initially did not realize that respondents were given choices.

  2. I guess I’m surprised that anyone would find that survey surprising.

    It’s the specificity that trips people up. Ask any random American what the 250 stands for, and they can probably dredge up “America’s birthday” or something similar. But, ask them what exactly happened on that date and you’ll probably get a mish-mash of answers: “signing of the Declaration of Independence,” and “winning the war,” and probably a few “election of Washington” and “Boston Tea Party” -type responses.

    People tend not to retain information that isn’t important to them in their day-to-day lives. Not that long ago, I watched a reel on Facebook that features a guy who quizzes what appear to be his friends and coworkers about countries on a map, or factoids about different countries. Some are pretty esoteric; I’m fairly good at geography and world facts and I couldn’t get a number of them.

    But some are really, really basic. And it’s astonishing how many people can’t identify India on a map, or find France, or answer questions about bordering countries by naming islands and such.

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  3. In my earliest days teaching World Politics, likely as a graduate student, I administered a Walking Around Knowledge quiz very early in the term. I gave them a study guide. The number of students who couldn’t identify Canada or Mexico on a map, despite having the map and (small) list of countries they’d be tested on, was shocking. And this was at the height of the NAFTA debate.

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    1. Makes me think of a map quiz given in an upper-division PS course at UT, where I was the grader. It was a blank map of Europe. The number of people who couldn’t even get Italy was the boot was, well, astonishing and depressing.

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  4. MAGA Republicans would, of course, seize on the survey results to “prove” how terrible education standards have become in American schools, leading to demands for compulsory history courses. Taylor’s anecdotes about his own experience would be waved away as evidence he’s a typical liberal teacher who doubtless spent most of the class time talking about DEI or CRT.

  5. a photo of Dick Cheney and ask the students to identify him

    I’m sorry to this man.

    Love how she slides the picture back like she’s being interrogated on a Law and Order episode.

  6. I’m sorry, but… apples to oranges.

    I have no doubt that many young people don’t understand the roles of each of the three branches of government–especially since it’s all been muddled up over the past 40 years.

    And I’d be surprised if 20% of the public could recognize any member of government other than the President.

    But… 47% of people don’t know what July 4th is about? I don’t buy it.

    1. Not “young people” but college students in a class designed to learn the subject at hand after having been told the answer multiple times.

      I mean, come on now.

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    2. See my comment above. They’d be able to say “July 4=USA’s birthday!” But, can they specifically identify that start is the signing of the Declaration of Independence? No.

      Again, our own Secretary of the Interior mixed up when Washington became president with this anniversary.

      This is not as far-fetched as you seem to think it is.

      1. I think this is spot on. I’d guess “America’s Birthday” would get something like 75-80%, but what constitutes said birthday is a harder question. Arguably, the formal adoption of the Declaration by the Continental Congress is a semi-random event. It wasn’t the start of the war. It wasn’t the end of the war. It wasn’t Washington becoming President.

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  7. One should note that if one were pedantic, CATO doesn’t have July 4 quite right when they say it’s the date the Declaration was “adopted”. Checking WIKI, July 4 is the date John Hancock, as President of the Second Continental Congress, signed the document certifying that the wording was as agreed and the Declaration was announced. The date it was “adopted” or “signed” is complicated. John Adams thought the date of the final July 2 vote would be celebrated. And when CATO says 47% of you dummies don’t understand and CATO has it wrong, I think pedantry is entirely called for.

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  8. Does not surprise me. It is plausible. I feel many confuse the holiday between winning the war for independence vs the Declaration of Independence. Look at the polls of “slavery was the underlying cause of the Civil War” Christ…it’s like 48% in denial, so should not be too surprised at all, and I am sure a large portion of those in denial have an undergrad degree, which makes it even more depressing.

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  9. When I was teaching political science, I had the same experiences as Steven and James:

    Repeated the same facts of ideas many times throughout the course. A substantial number of student got them wrong.
    Did a survey covering current events and basic history: big percentages of students got them wrong.
    I’ll add one more gobsmacking moment: when I was a TA in a class, “Politics of Britain,” lots of students got easy questions wrong in an open book test. Not only that, but they spelled Britain wrong.

    This occurred in the late 80s/early 90s, so you can’t blame social media or Fox News. Nor can you say that they did not have reinforcement of the basic facts about our own history and system of government outside of one classroom. Nor can you put the onus on some lack of direct investment in the topic: most of the students were political science majors.

    My own explanation: inattention and laziness. Actually, just laziness, which provides an excuse for inattention. Or maybe something even more fundamental: a disinvestment from American politics and history, which excuses laziness, which excuses inattention.

    Once, while teaching a class on military affairs, a student asked, “Why do you keep bringing up the Vietnam War? I don’t need to know anything about it. I wasn’t alive at the time.”

    Ponder that for a moment.

    No, he wasn’t just one particularly shameless doofus. I heard similar attitudes, perhaps stated less tartly, on other occasions.

    Over at Lawyers, Guns, and Money, they call this the Ariana Grande effect. The average Ariana Grande fan knows a lot about her, quote her lyrics, name her albums. If you’re not a fan, you might not recognize a single song. Is knowing about the American political system the same type of esoteric knowledge? Perhaps, but that’s not how it should be, even if that’s how our society currently operates.

    There are things you should know. What are the different levels of government in our federal system? By extension, whom should you blame for the potholes? That knowledge is at least on par with understanding how credit cards work, even without throwing in the obligations of citizenship.

    I also wonder how many French citizens know the source of Bastille Day, or how many Brits know who was the person who inspired all those Guy Fawkes masks. In other words, to what extent are we talking about a distinctly American lack of investment in our own political system and history?

    I do know that, if you excuse people from the obligation to know these basic facts, as a democracy, you’re cooked.

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    1. @Kingdaddy I think, because of the nature of our education system, we’re likely unique among developed nations. I suspect the average Briton or Frenchman is comparably ignorant. But the average high school graduate, let alone university graduate, from those places will likely have a better command of the basic facts of the American system than the average American with the same credentials. Their systems require a lot of rote memorization and also weed out the less intelligent/motivated students much earlier.

      1. I haven’t found an equivalent survey in France, but I would be shocked if 47% of the French public didn’t know what Bastille Day commemorates. Or 37%.

        But that’s not the main point, anyway. The larger point is, can we function as a democracy with this level of ignorance? And with this level of excuse-making for that ignorance?

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  10. Doesnt surprise me. If you asked it as a yes or no question “Does July 4th celebrate the founding/start of our country?” I think 80% or more say yes. I think a lot of people dont remember the specifics since they didnt really care that much when it was taught.

    Can we survive with this level of knowledge? I suspect the survey would not have been that different anytime in the last 100 years. What is hurting us now is the willingness of people to believe misinformation, (lies), ignore obvious corruption, value partisan ideology over competence (it actually goes beyond that as actual expertise is now attacked and mocked), willingness to turn over our governance to a single person and too many other things to name.

    On history specifically, most people dont remember it unless they have some reason to do so or they are brighter than average. However, there are lots of ways to gain the necessary knowledge but people now turn to their favored source on Youtube or cable TV to get the “truth”. I dont know if that is fixable now.

    Steve

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